[Scrivero]

Alright, to start with I must say that I did not know anything about SDQL three weeks prior to this date. And I still know nothing about MLB. These two details give me a chance to come up with innovative (hopefully) approaches and SDQL queries to beat MLB and to win loads of cash.

I will post all my best SDQL queries, not gonna keep anything to myself. I will try to find systems that create as many plays as possible but have as high ROI as possible. I do the SDQL queries on killersports. Whenever there is a play, the lines will be Pinnacle.

My first SDQL queries for this thread: My starting point is to have the Home Favorite (HF) and the total for the game being 8 (that just seems to give the highest ROI out of all totals, dont know why), and the HF losing its previous game (to make them angry/pumped up for the next game, I dont know lol) while scoring (does one "score" in MLB ) 2 or less runs and the opponent (previous or current, different queries) scoring 4 runs or more in its previous game. The less the HF scores in the previous and the more then opponent (previous or current) scored in the previous, the higher the ROI. Also, I have added that the HF has a winning % of max 49 % away. Why? Well, I figured that maybe they are just a team that is not that good away but is better home. And since they lost their previous match they are maybe getting better odds than normal as a fav and RL.

Feel free to join in, give tips, give criticism, anything at all, everything helps us win. The stats below are from the previous 10 years.

Here we go:
HF and total=8 and AWP<=49 and p:runs<=2 and 4<=po:runs

RL:	98-102 (-0.52, 49.0%)	avg line: 150.3 / -164.8	on / against: +$4,240 / -$5,557	ROI: +20.8% / -16.7%

This year: 2-3

HF and total=8 and AWP<=49 and p:runs<=2 and 4<=op:runs

RL:	92-106 (-0.76, 46.5%)	avg line: 150.8 / -165.1	on / against: +$2,995 / -$4,256	ROI: +14.9% / -12.9%

This year: 2-3

Basically the queries above are very similar and even have big amount of the same games for both. Still a small difference, the first one looks at the previous game's opponent's runs and the second one the current game's opponent's runs in its previous game.

We could also just combine those queries and get this one with a higher ROI:

HF and total=8 and AWP<=49 and p:runs<=2 and 4<=op:runs and 4<=po:runs

RL:	83-82 (-0.54, 50.3%)	avg line: 150.0 / -164.5	on / against: +$4,003 / -$5,135	ROI: +23.8% / -18.8%

This year: 2-2

And as said before, if we would make the HF score less in the previous and opponent (previous or current) score more, the ROI goes up but the amount of games plummets even more:

HF and total=8 and AWP<=49 and p:runs<=1 and 5<=po:runs

RL:	47-36 (-0.26, 56.6%)	avg line: 149.8 / -164.9	on / against: +$3,356 / -$3,979	ROI: +39.1% / -28.6%

This year: 1-1

I will basically try to find more similar queries and more factors that affect. I will try to find many queries so that we would have as many games as possible (and not just ca 20 per season as the above queries would give).

The big problem that I see now already when I try different queries is that:
- The above query, if we change it only a bit to allow more games, the ROI just goes to basically +-0 straight away. E.g. games with total>=8 gives only a ROI of 3,3 %. Total<=8 gives a ROI of +0,5 %. So basically the total 8 is the magic number for an unknown reason.
- The problem with just a specific total is that the total changes all the way until the game starts. We (at least I) wont be able to play the right games like, never., because I will be asleep when the games start, normally.
- Basically we have to find queries that are less dependent on the total being X. It will certainly be very difficult.

To add to the comment above, that we could only play certain games (just day games), the query and the ROI:
HF and total=8 and AWP<=49 and p:runs<=1 and 5<=po:runs and DAY

RL:	15-7 (1.23, 68.2%)	avg line: 154.8 / -169.6	on / against: +$1,637 / -$1,852	ROI: +74.4% / -49.6%

This year: 1-0

BUT, we dont want to play only 22 games during the next 10 years

This was the start, more to come! Now you also know a bit about how I think. You might see some shortcomings and hopefully some strenghts too. I will improve for sure, this is just the beginning.

[2daBank]

Winning loads of cash is always nice.. GL

[Scrivero]

Thanks

[FUqer]

Good luck to you, I know how your feeling right now, sure to be many sleepless nights.

[TechnicalTrader]

The only tip I can give you is to not data mine. It seems like you start off with a variable (HF) and simply add profitable variables. This will work as long as you enter a cycle "on time" but most cases prove that timing is what kills this strategy because you usually wait for it to put up plus numbers when you enter.

Rather than data mining, try one simple strategies and possibly my combine them.

[Scrivero]

@FUqer: lol thanks man, gotta pay my dues!

@TT: Thanks for the tip! You are exatly right about the way I did too. I will see where I end up next with the SDQL stuff. I will look into combining the strategies.

I remember when I used to do academic reserach, one had basically two ways of finding the results:
1. Deductive: One tries to think before looking at the data, what will be the results (or the theory or the system) and then one just tries to find data that supports it. There is always data that supports the thought out result.
2. Inductive: One looks at all the data possible and then finds the result on the basis of the findings.

I like the second way for sure. Not sure which one is better with MLB systems but I woulld thnk that the second one. I certainly used the first approach in my original post's system and queries.

[Scrivero]

Ok, I have been way too busy with my other "systems" where I have mostly spewed money, hence I have not improved these actual SDQL queries or tried to think about new queries/systems. I still dont have time for it with my fade-system taking all my MLB/Betting time.

BUT, we have the first play since the 19th of April in the systems above, more exactly hitting this query:
HF and total=8 and AWP<=49 and p:runs<=2 and 4<=op:runs and 4<=po:runs

So we play RL -1.5 Marlins.

[The Hat]

Interesting, good luck!

one thing in regards to:
"and the HF losing its previous game (to make them angry/pumped up for the next game, I dont know lol)"

getting angry and pumped up for the next game is not effective in baseball and doesn't exist like it does in football and/or basketball. Baseball is a game of focus

[The Hat]

...that's why you don't see baseball managers and coaches giving rah rah 'let's go!' speeches in the dugout during the game

[Scrivero]

Interesting, good luck!

one thing in regards to:
"and the HF losing its previous game (to make them angry/pumped up for the next game, I dont know lol)"

getting angry and pumped up for the next game is not effective in baseball and doesn't exist like it does in football and/or basketball. Baseball is a game of focus

Thanks for the info! I am oblivious to anything MLB, dont know the sport at all. Good to know that my thought on that point is the opposite of the reality. Maybe I can use that to adjust my query. And maybe I should study the actual game more to be able to find the new angles.

With that said, the Marlins lost.

[The Hat]

Thanks for the info! I am oblivious to anything MLB, dont know the sport at all. Good to know that my thought on that point is the opposite of the reality. Maybe I can use that to adjust my query. And maybe I should study the actual game more to be able to find the new angles.

With that said, the Marlins lost.

No problem. With a 162 game season grind, managers/players don't want to get too high or too low. They just want to stay loose and focused. Baseball is the hardest sport to run queries on since it's primarily a very individual player based sport. The variables are constantly moving. Some players can't hit right hand pitching, some left hand pitching....some aren't breaking ball hitters....on and on and on....
Some batters have faced certain pitchers quite a bit and others not at all. The 'listed starting pitchers' play a larger part in determining the moneyline than they should (IMO).

Bullpen stats are down this year. May be worth monitoring, especially with the way managers keep their starters on these low pitch counts...