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Friday's MLB play...
NY Mets (Harvey) -112 This guy is all the way back, at home, with a chip on his shoulder. He'll give the Mets at least 7 innings, or even 8. Nats have some issues in the pen, and that will make the diff here. Grab the good value with the Mets.
Good luck if you play along.
Well we know Harper can't touch Harvey we shall see good luck
I also think these guys playing for the injured starters for the Mets can ball. People will be surprised.Originally Posted by pilebuck13
Brew Crew & Rays
I'm a diehard mets fan and I have to disagree with you. I do believe Harvey is back but the Mets have really been struggling. They have 4 guys who are out; Flores, Duda, d'Arnoud and Cespedes. The latter being their most important piece and they are horrible without him in the lineup. And although Harvey usually pitches the nats tough, he wasn't originally scheduled to pitch today which might mess with him. Harvey is big on routine. Didn't even get to mention that Murphy is back in town and will rip the cover off the ball. I almost never bet against my teams, but even I couldn't resist this one. Mets are struggling to hit right now and the nats are the better team at the moment. But best of luck on your play
You have some new shooters tonight. Take a look.
I'm aware of the replacements. Lagares has 7 at bats this year, (happens to be one of my favorite players) Rene Rivera is a solid catcher but can't hit, I like TJ Rivera but he's had 3 at bats this year. There's a reason the mets opened up at -135 and fell to -115. I hope I'm wrong, but definitely would not be confident with them right now
The Mets of rarely won the last couple of weeks
They are banged up too if can only get worse
JJ the season is barely over 2 weeks old and they are .500 what do you mean they've barely won lol. You're wrong that it can only get worse, their pitching alone can win them games, but this is not the spot to take them
They are slumping
Mets not good
It's April. They have one of the best rotations in the league. They'll be fine.
I felt obligated to play Giants/Rockies over 9-115. Damm game opened 10.5 and got bet all the way down! Don't care who is on the mound in Colorado.
My plays are based on value, saber numbers with starting pitching and bullpens. I don't make plays based on the outcome of one event, rather, I make plays based on long term outlook that will be profitable. I don't make plays based on whether a team is slumping, or is hot. Yes, I might factor that in, but don't base my plays on streaks of teams.
That's fine and I respect that but coming from a diehard fan who watches every game, I would never lay a cent on them in this particular spot. Getting Harvey at home against an average pitcher like Roark at -115 is definitely a good price but there's a reason why the line is that low. Your wager might hit but my eyes and mind told me it was a bad spot. Good luck the rest of the way
I find this to be somewhat contradictory. Baseball all about price. How on one hand you say it a good price but on the other not like the spot? Either they have a better chance of winning than 53.5% which means they a good bet or they don't. Don't get the "it's a good price but bad spot" statement.
I meant when you first look at the matchup and the price on Harvey, it definitely looks like the right price to make a play on the Mets. You get Harvey at home, who has looked very solid this year, against Roark. When you dig a little deeper or have been following this team, you'd realize that they are struggling big time right now. They have injured players who are very important to the team, not to mention a few things that you can't measure with Saber metrics or statistics. Harvey wasn't even supposed to pitch today and that doesn't bode well for guys like him who are big on routine. Murphy destroys the Mets, look at his numbers against the Mets last year. Plus the nats took 12 of 19 in the season series last year. These teams have been trending in opposite directions (mets lost 4 of last 5, nats won 5 of last 6) over the last week and even though the price looks good at first glance, it's not a good spot to take them. Nats are the better team right now
Fair enough don't disagree with any of it. Thanks for clarifying with a intelligent response.
Rusty I totally understand. But when I get an advantage over the books, as small as it is, I take it. Granted, it didn't work out tonight basically over bad luck, but I'm fine with that. Over time, if I make plays like this one, I will come out ahead.
I do thank you for your input though. It's a good, respectful discussion which is rare on these boards.
I completely understand taking advantage of a number that you feel has value in it. Like you said, that's how you beat the books over the course of time. A part of me was hoping you were right even though I had money on the opposite side. I am a fan after all. Being a fan can also impair judgement when trying to find value in teams(or your teams oppostion) so I usually try to steer clear of making bets on my teams. Anyway best of luck the rest of the way RF
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