4/12/17

11-7-1, RoR +35.8%

Reds, FG, +156, Garrett (1-0) / Nova (15-11)

Marlins, FG, -111, Garcia (13-17) / Koehler (19-14)

Not only was Garrett very impressive I his first start but the Pirates offense still has not come around, posting above average ratings in only 3 of their 7 games to date. I respect Nova, but not to the extent of thinking he has a 62.4% chance of carrying his club today. The Pirates are also high because of the public belief in the “won’t get swept at home” mythology. I only throw that in because some true believer is bound to remind me of it. A coin flip at +156 is a good deal in my opinion.

The Braves are another team drawing unwarranted action as they are not hitting worth a crap either, having performed under my benchmark in 5 of 7 games. There is a reason the Cardinals let Garcia take a hike and as of this moment in time Koehler is easily the better chucker.
BOL