1. #281
    FUqer
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    Then if you take Rangers -3 AD vs Blue Jays +3 HF and you will see, the HF has won 13 out of the last 15 in that spot.

  2. #282
    FUqer
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    One last thing before I head out for the night. Haven't really got into tomorrow's card yet and won't till the morning, but at first glance, the Reds, Pirates, Rockies, Royals, Tigers GM #2 (Fulmer), all interest me. GL tonight!

  3. #283
    FUqer
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    2017 Season

    Most Profitable Teams


    +$1668 - Rockies
    +$1239 - Astros
    +$1235 - D-Backs

    Least Profitable Teams

    -$1255 - Mets
    -$1192 - Marlins
    -$1131 - Phillies
    -$1009 - Padres

    Profitable Losing Teams

    +$346 - Reds
    +$138 - White Sox

    Least Profitable Winning Teams

    -$991 - Indians
    -$666 - Cubs
    -$324 - Cardinals
    -$107 - Dodgers

    Most Profitable Over Teams

    +$1700 - Mets
    +$1100 - Marlins
    +$0953 - Cubs
    +$0837 - Braves
    +$0768 - Reds
    +$0748 - Brewers
    +$0718 - Cardinals

    Most Profitable Under Teams

    +$1065 - Royals
    +$0943 - Indians
    +$0810 - Angels
    +$0480 - Rockies

    Most Profitable Teams vs lefties

    +$818 - Rockies
    +$517 - White Sox
    +$302 - Angels
    +$275 - Yankees
    +$259 - Twins
    +$208 - Athletics
    +$169 - Orioles
    +$167 - Cubs
    +$150 - Braves

    Least Profitable Teams vs Lefties

    -$744 - Indians
    -$575 - Blue Jays
    -$441 - Rays
    -$440 - Reds
    -$289 - Cardinals
    -$274 - Padres
    -$272 - Pirates
    -$259 - Astros
    -$262 - Dodgers
    -$239 - Mets

    Most Profitable Over Teams vs Lefties

    +$295 - Marlins
    +$280 - Mets
    +$255 - Athletics
    +$252 - Angels
    +$178 - Reds
    +$170 - Brewers
    +$160 - Cubs
    +$137 - Pirates
    +$090 - Phillies
    +$085 - Blue Jays
    +$085 - Red Sox
    +$065 - Cardinals

    Most Profitable Under Teams vs lefties

    +$695 - Rockies
    +$630 - Indians
    +$490 - Mariners
    +$465 - Dodgers
    +$460 - Rangers
    +$345 - Orioles
    +$330 - Royals
    +$270 - Twins
    +$190 - Nationals
    +$150 - White Sox
    -------------------------------
    Points Awarded:

    thekoreanmang gave FUqer 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  4. #284
    2daBank
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    Love these list you post!! Never stop!!

    Luckily Rockies and dbags were 2 teams I liked a lot coming into the year! On the flip side I also liked Phillies to be a solid bet on team, which they were decent early on. I've jumped way off that bandwagon long ago!!

  5. #285
    FUqer
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    A few interesting things.

    Pirates, already lost same number of game vs lefties (6-9) than they did all of last season (20-9).

    Marlins 2nd least profitable team but still +47 vs lefties.

    Astros 2nd most profitable team but -$259 vs lefties.

    The last two seasons, the Rockies have been one of the most profitable Under teams.

  6. #286
    2daBank
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    I'd think that outta continue with solid pen and stable of strong armed starters they been bringing up. Of course coupled with high ass totals. Curious how that shapes up home and away? This season I have actually started playing some unders at coors, full game even where as used to be strictly ff if I played.

  7. #287
    FUqer
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    They've been plus money both on Road and at Home the last two seasons on the Under, +2.6% Home, +3.1% Road, and +5.8 as a Home Favorite, +7.0% as a Road Dog, +15.2% as Home Favorite vs Righties.

  8. #288
    FUqer
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    It looks like part of it, may be the books over compensating for years of Overs. The avg. total before 2016 for Home games was 10.3, since it has been 11.3.

  9. #289
    FUqer
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    Saturday Plays 5/27

    »-White Sox +101 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    »-White Sox -1 +143 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)

    »-Tigers/White Sox Over 9 -113 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    _________________________
    Yesterday = 1-7 = -6.11
    ___________________________
    Last edited by FUqer; 05-27-17 at 11:06 AM. Reason: Hopefully no more pitching changes.

  10. #290
    thekoreanmang
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    I believe Farmer/Holland matchup is GM 2. Like going against the rook, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Saturday Plays 5/27

    »-White Sox -112 (GM #1 Farmer/Holland)
    »-White Sox -1 +124 (GM #1 Farmer/Holland)

    »-Tigers/White Sox Over 9 -113 (GM #1 Farmer/Holland)
    _________________________
    Yesterday = 1-7 = -6.11
    ___________________________

  11. #291
    FUqer
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    yea, I know, they pulled it from Heritage, I thought they was just moving the same match-up to game #2, regardless I'm fading Buck Farmer today, damn it I'll update if I need to.

  12. #292
    thekoreanmang
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    Yeah, makes me think if the CWS TT Over (both FG and F5) as well F5 Over are plays also.

  13. #293
    FUqer
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    Additions

    Saturday Plays 5/27

    »-White Sox +101 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    »-White Sox -1 +143 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    »-White Sox TT FF Over 2½ +100 (GM #2)
    »-White Sox FF -105 (GM #2)
    »-Tigers FF -½ -115 (GM #1 Furmer/Danish)
    »-Dodgers TT U 3½ +100
    »-Rangers -105


    »-Tigers/White Sox Over 9 -113 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)

  14. #294
    thekoreanmang
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    Nice. Glad you liked the ideas too.

  15. #295
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Saturday Plays 5/27

    »-White Sox +101 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    »-White Sox -1 +143 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    »-White Sox TT FF Over 2½ +100 (GM #2)
    »-White Sox FF -105 (GM #2)
    »-Tigers FF -½ -115 (GM #1 Furmer/Danish)
    »-Dodgers TT U 3½ +100
    »-Rangers -105


    »-Tigers/White Sox Over 9 -113 (GM #2 Farmer/Holland)
    »-Cubs +106

  16. #296
    FUqer
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    Am I jinxed or what, wow! Danish shuts out Fulmer? Farmer shutting them out thru 5?? bahahaha

  17. #297
    FUqer
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    What a few days, after a nice start to the week. I'm now out of all the money I made from the NHL playoffs at the beginning and I'm not ready to start on a fresh bank roll yet, so I'm just going to be doing some tracking for awhile, until I figure some stuff out and my luck changes. I will still post some information and do my SDQL thread, DOD, etc.. since I have to be online anyway, but time will get harder to come by after next week when school is out, (wife is a teacher). I'll be putting a lot of time in the lab for the next week though.

    I've made some changes to my model that I think will be key for helping with sides. There was nothing wrong at all with the totals projections, in fact it was 11-3 on predicting totals tonight, 55% overall. I saved the formula in case the new one doesn't work out as good for totals.

    I apologize for my shitty picks but hopefully I've made it clear before, to use my information, but to not tail me, a lot of identity searching as a player going on. I've only been capping since 2015. I made +20 Units in MLB my 1st season -20 Units last season and it seems to be my worst sport, with NHL, NCAAB and Football as my top 3. I'm determined as ever to beat baseball though.



    Here is what the tracking may look like for awhile.

    Sunday

    First Glance

    @Brewers -114
    @Rockies -113
    Cubs@ +152
    Royals@ +118
    Rays@ -104
    Angels@ -119

    Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
    Padres/Nationals Over 9
    Reds/Phillies Over 9
    D-Backs/Brewers Over 9
    Rangers/Blue Jays Over 9
    Tigers/White Sox Over 9.5
    Orioles/Astros Under 8.5
    Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
    ------------------------------
    Top 6 Plays at First Glance

    @Brewers -114
    @Rockies -113
    Royals@ +118

    Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
    Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
    Padres/Nationals Over 8.5
    ------------------------------
    Top 2 First Glance

    @Brewers -114

    Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
    -------------------------------
    Best Play First Glance

    Cardinals/Rockies Under 11

    -------------------------------
    Model: Dogs with highest value

    Orioles +195
    Braves +160
    Mariners +169
    Padres +160
    Rangers +151
    -------------------------------
    Model: Favs with highest value

    Marlins -108
    White Sox -108
    Rockies -113
    -------------------------------
    Model: Top two Unders

    Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
    Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
    -------------------------------
    Model: Top two Overs

    Braves/Giants Over 8
    Padres/Nationals Over 9
    -------------------------------
    Model Plays

    Rangers +151
    Royals +114
    White Sox -108

    Cardinals/Rockies Under 11
    Angels/Marlins Under 8.5
    Braves/Giants Over 8
    Padres/Nationals Over 8.5
    -------------------------------
    Model Leans

    Angels -102
    Brewers -113
    Twins -101
    Cardinals +103
    Mets -104

    Reds/Phillies Over 9
    Orioles/Astros Under 8.5
    --------------------------------
    Totals Projections

    STL (8.72) U11 (-2.28)
    MIA (6.83) U8.5 (-1.67)
    TOR (7.42) U9 (-1.58)
    WAS (9.87) O8.5 (+1.37)
    BAL (7.31) U8.5 (-1.19)
    KC (7.34) U8.5 (-1.16)
    CHW (8.42) U9.5 (-1.08)
    BOS (8.92) U10 (-1.08)
    CHC (7.00) O6 (+1.00)
    ATL (8.87) O8 (+0.87)
    TB (8.84) U9.5 (-0.64)
    NYM (9.59) O9 (+0.59)
    MIL (8.59) U9 (-0.41)
    CIN (9.09) O9 (+0.09)
    NYY (8.50) O8.5 (+0.00)
    -------------------------------
    On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145

    Only known for near close.
    -------------------------------
    Square

    @BOS -174
    @NYY -170
    @SF -170
    @LAD -165
    -------------------------------
    Run Line

    None
    -------------------------------
    ALL Side Picks by Tier

    KC@ +126
    @CHW -106

    TEX@ +151
    @MIN -101
    SD@ +160

    STL@ +107
    NYM@ -102

    LAA@ -102
    @MIL -108

    BAL@ +201
    @PHI +118

    @BOS -174
    @NYY -170
    @SF -170
    @LAD -165
    -------------------------------
    Last edited by FUqer; 05-28-17 at 06:36 AM.

  18. #298
    FUqer
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    I noticed something while doing my streak chart about the AL seemingly having more streaks than the NL so I looked it up real quick and found it's been profitable to play on AL teams on streaks of -3 or more for this season. Going back to 2015 until now, +2.4%, but all-time it doesn't hold up, if you think that matters.

    And fading NL teams on streaks of +3 or more has better results that is even +0.7% all-time. Getting to head out, but I'm sure I can filter it and increase the ROI when I get more time.

    Orioles lost last 6 plays AL team on streak of 3
    Rangers lost last 5 plays AL team on streak of 5
    Indians lost last 3

    Dodgers won last 3

    This Season

    AL -3 or more = 48-34 +14.0
    NL -3 or more = 47-54 -4.9

    AL +3 or more = 56-47 +4.0%
    NL +3 or more = 35-49 -20.0%

    Since 2015

    AL -3 or more = +2.4/-5.8
    NL -3 or more = -11.4/+6.8

    AL +3 or more = -4.9/+1.0
    NL +3 or more = +0.4/-4.1

    All Time (Database History)

    AL -3 or more = -3.0/-1.2
    NL -3 or more = -3.6/-0.6

    AL +3 or more = -0.9/-3.4
    NL +3 or more = -4.6/+0.7

  19. #299
    Tomatero
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    What do you think about this sdql:
    H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]

  20. #300
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomatero View Post
    What do you think about this sdql:
    H and line > -150 and line < 103 and p:W and season = 2017 and total in [8 , 10.5 , 11.5]
    Looks like a winner since 2014 and more interesting to me is the Under + ROI in a season where it seems Overs been ruling. A lot of the larger samples I got, haven't been good recently, so it's harder to find Unders. I'll keep any eye on it and see how it does, thanks.

  21. #301
    Tomatero
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Looks like a winner since 2014 and more interesting to me is the Under + ROI in a season where it seems Overs been ruling. A lot of the larger samples I got, haven't been good recently, so it's harder to find Unders. I'll keep any eye on it and see how it does, thanks.
    Maybe we can parlay ML/under,good idea 💡??

  22. #302
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomatero View Post
    Maybe we can parlay ML/under,good idea ??
    Maybe not just on that alone, but it's something to maybe put you across the fence on a match-up you already liked. The ones that I consider playing on their merit alone are ones with larger sample sizes, like the one I had today in my SDQL thread for the Indians, Rockies, Twins, that went 2-1 and it went 2-0 yesterday that is 970-579 +11.9%.

    For the smaller ones I would cross check recent years and all-time records and add the team filter to see how that specific team does in that spot.

  23. #303
    FUqer
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    ---------------------
    Monday Tracking

    At First Glance (SU = 2-4) (OU = 3-5)

    Phillies@ +132
    @White Sox +166
    @Rangers -107
    Tigers@ -101
    @Twins +111

    Phillies/Marlins Under 8.5 +100
    Dodgers/Cardinals Under 8.5 -110
    Tigers/Royals Under 9 -110
    Astros/Twins Under 9 -113
    Mariners/Rockies Over 11 -110
    ------------------------------
    Top 6 Plays at First Glance (SU = 2-1) (OU = 0-3)

    @Rangers -107
    Tigers@ -101
    @Twins +111

    Phillies/Marlins Under 8.5 +100
    Tigers/Royals Under 9 -110
    Astros/Twins Under 9 -113
    ------------------------------
    Top 2 First Glance (SU = 1-0) (OU = 0-1)

    Rangers -107

    Astros/Twins Under 9
    -------------------------------
    Best Play First Glance (SU = 0-0) (OU = 0-1)

    Astros/Twins Under 9
    -------------------------------
    Model: Dogs with highest value (3-2 for +2.80)

    White Sox +166
    Padres +174
    Reds +189
    Athletics +227
    Brewers +125
    Phillies +143
    Mariners +140
    -------------------------------
    Model: Favs with highest value ( 3-0 for +3.00)

    Royals -105
    Rangers -115
    -------------------------------
    Model: Top two Unders (0-2)

    Red Sox/White Sox Under 9
    D-Backs/Pirates Under 9
    -------------------------------
    Model: Top two Overs (0-1-1)

    Braves/Angels Over 8
    Brewers/Mets Over 8.5
    -------------------------------
    System Plays (SU = 2-1) (OU = 1-3)

    Rangers -115
    Royals -105
    Nationals -114
    Phillies +143
    Brewers +125

    Red Sox/White Sox Under 9
    D-Backs/Pirates Under 9
    Braves/Angels Over 8
    Brewers/Mets Over 8.5
    -------------------------------
    On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145 (1-0 for +1.34)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing (2-1 for +2.37)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    Square (3-1 for +1.26)

    Indians -237
    Cubs -184
    -------------------------------
    Run Line

    Indians -1.5
    -------------------------------
    RRL dogs @ Col ( 0-1 for -1.00)

    Mariners -1.5
    -------------
    ALL Picks by Tiers (Total = 8-7)
    (#1 = 1-1 +0.00)(#2 = 2-1 +2.10)(#3 = 1-1 +0.00)(#4 = 3-1 +1.26)(#5 = 1-3 -2.02)

    Rangers -115
    Nationals -114
    Brewers +125

    Royals -105
    Indians -237

    Phillies +143
    Orioles -109
    Cardinals +102
    Twins +121

    Cubs -184
    Red Sox -176
    Blue Jays -199
    Rockies -150

    Braves +112
    D-Backs +103
    -------------
    Model Projections for Totals

    @CHW - (7.0) - U9 - (-2.0)
    @PIT - (7.2) - U9 - (-1.8)
    @SD - (6.9) - U8 - (-1.1)
    @HOU - (8.0) - U9 - (-1.0)
    @STL - (7.5) - U8.5 - (-1.0)
    @TOR - (8.1) - U9 - (-0.9)
    @LAA - (8.8) - O8 - (+0.8)
    @MIA - (7.7) - U8.5 - (-0.8)
    @BAL - (8.2) - U9 - (-0.8)
    @TEX - (8.7) - U9.5 - (-0.8)
    MIL@ - (9.1) - O8.5 - (+0.6)
    WAS@ - (9.0) - O8.5 - (+0.5)
    @CLE - (8.7) - U9 - (-0.3)
    @KC - (8.9) - U9 - (-0.1)
    -----------------------------
    SDQL Plays

    Angels -122
    Royals -105

    Brewers/Mets Over 8
    ------------------------------
    Would be plays

    Brewers +125
    Rangers -115

    Astros/Twins Under 9
    Brewers/Mets Over 8
    Braves/Angels Over 8
    -------------------------------
    Last edited by FUqer; 05-29-17 at 06:06 AM.

  24. #304
    KANSAS24
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  25. #305
    FUqer
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    Tuesday Tracking

    Interested In At First Glance (SU = 4-7 for -0.41) (OU = 5-7 for -0.23)

    Phillies -106
    Pirates -104
    Cardinals -104
    Brewers +105
    Padres +125
    Giants -118
    Indians -151
    Orioles +110
    White Sox +159
    Twins -123
    Blue Jays -170
    Mariners +125

    Phillies/Marlins Under 9
    D-Backs/Pirates Over 7.5
    Dodgers/Cardinals Over 8.5
    Brewers/Mets Over 9
    Cubs/Padres Under 8
    Nationals/Giants Under 8
    Red Sox/White Sox Over 7.5
    Astros/Twins Under 9
    ------------------------------
    Top 6 Plays at First Glance (SU = 2-4 for -1.00) (OU = 1-5 for -4.23)

    Twins -123
    Brewers +105
    Orioles +110

    Brewers/Mets Over 9
    Nationals/Giants Under 8
    Astros/Twins Under 9
    ------------------------------
    Top 2 First Glance (SU = 1-1 for -0.07) (OU = 0-2 for -2.23)

    Brewers +105

    Brewers/Mets Over 9
    -------------------------------
    Best Play First Glance (SU = 0-0) (OU = 0-2 for -2.23)

    Brewers +105
    ________________________________
    Model: Dogs with highest value (6-6 for +3.60)

    White Sox +172
    Nationals +110
    Reds +160
    Athletics +151
    Astros +109
    -------------------------------
    Model: Favs with highest value ( 3-2 for +0.80)

    Cubs -136
    Rockies -133
    -------------------------------
    Model: Top two Unders (1-2-1 for -1.10)

    Cubs/Padres Under 8
    Reds/Blue Jays Under 9.5
    -------------------------------
    Model: Top two Overs (1-2-1 for -1.20)

    Red Sox/White Sox Over 7.5
    Nationals/Giants Over 8
    -------------------------------
    Model Projections for Totals(Overall 7-6-1) (O = 1-2) (U = 6-4) (3-3 = 0-0)(Top 3 = 2-0-1)(4 thru 7 = 2-2)(Botton 5 = 1-4)

    CHC@SD - U8 = (-2.2)
    CIN@TOR - U9.5 = (-1.6)
    TB@TEX - U10 = (-1.4)
    NYY@BAL - U9 = (-1.2)
    BOS@CHW - O7.5 = (+1.1)
    WAS@SF - O8 = (+1.1)
    PHI@MIA - U9 = (-0.8)
    MIL@NYM - U9 = (-0.6)
    OAK@CLE - U8.5 = (-0.5)
    LAD@STL - U8.5 = (-0.4)
    HOU@MIN - U9 = (-0.4)
    ARI@PIT - O7.5 = (+0.1)
    DET@KC - (7.9)
    ATL@LAA - (8.5)
    ________________________________
    System Plays (3-5 for -2.12)

    Astros +112
    Brewers +106
    Rockies -133
    __________________________________
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145(2-0 for +2.65)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing(4-2 for +5.04)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    RLM

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    Run Line (1-0 for +1.00)

    Nationals -1.5
    -------------------------------
    RRL dogs @ COL ( 0-2 for -2.00)

    Mariners -1.5
    ___________________________________
    ALL Picks by Tiers (Total = 8-7)

    (#1 = 2-3 -1.15)
    Astros@ +112
    Brewers@ +106
    @Rockies -133

    (#2 = 3-2 +2.05)
    Dodgers@ -112
    Rays@ -117

    (#3 = 2-4 -2.00)
    Phillies@ +105
    @Orioles +116

    (#4 = 4-4 -2.84)
    @Blue Jays -170
    Cubs@ -136

    (#5 = 2-4 -1.90)
    Nationals@ +112
    Athletics@ +152
    @Pirates +102
    @White Sox +172
    -------------
    SDQL Plays (0-3 for -3.37)

    Rockies -133
    Blue Jays -170

    D-Backs/Pirates Over 7.5
    Astros/Twins Over 9
    ------------------------------
    Finals Mock Plays (SU = 0-2 for -2.15) (OU = 1-2 for -1.20)

    Brewers +106
    Astros +112
    Nationals +112
    Athletics +152

    Rockies -1 -104

    D-Backs/Pirates Over 7.5 -118
    Astros/Twins Over 9 -108
    Athletics/Indians Under 8.5 +102

    -------------------------------
    Last edited by FUqer; 05-30-17 at 01:33 PM. Reason: Additions

  26. #306
    FUqer
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    Wednesday 5/31 Tracking
    ________________________________
    Projected Totals

    DET/KC - (7.6) - U9 = (-1.4)
    CIN/TOR - (8.6) - U10 = (-1.4)
    OAK/CLE - (7.7) - U9 = (-1.3)
    ATL/LAA - (9.0) - O8 = (+1.0)
    CHC/SD - (7.5) - O8.5 = (+1.0)
    ARI/PIT - (8.1) - U9 = (-0.9)
    MIL/NYM - (8.3) - O7.5 = (+0.8)
    NYY/BAL - (7.7) - U8.5 = (-0.8)
    COL/SEA - (8.7) - O8 = (+0.7)
    WAS/SF - (8.2) - O7.5 = (+0.7)
    PHI/MIA - (7.9) - U8.5 = (-0.6)
    LAD/STL - (7.6) - U8 = (-0.4)
    TB/TEX - (9.2) - U9.5 = (-0.3)
    BOS/CHW - (9.3) - U9.5 = (-0.2)
    HOU/MIN - (9.1) -
    ________________________________
    Model: Dogs with highest value (8-9 for +2.79)

    Brewers +170
    White Sox +135
    Rockies +144
    Dodgers +120
    Rangers +131
    Reds +131
    __________________________________
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145
    (3-0 for +4.01)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing
    (4-3 for +4.04)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    Run Lines Based on 60% model predictions (2-0 for +2.65)

    Cubs -1.5 -113
    Nationals -1.5 -103
    -------------------------------
    RRL dogs @ COL ( 1-2 for +0.40)

    None
    ___________________________________
    Would Be Plays for Wednesday

    Marlins -1 +102
    Yankees -110

    Braves/Angels Over 8 -103
    Cubs/Padres Over 7.5 -103
    -------------------------------
    I got rid of some of the clutter and reworked my pitcher ratings yesterday and made some more small improvements to my formula and how I determine plays. I'm only using the model as just one part of a new system I created. We'll see how it goes. GL!

  27. #307
    FUqer
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    Think I may of found something.

    Would Be Plays for Wednesday

    Marlins -1 +102
    Yankees -110
    Tigers +119
    Rangers RL +256
    White Sox RL +295
    Reds RL +193
    Athletics RL +202


    Braves/Angels Over 8 -103
    Cubs/Padres Over 7.5 -103
    Nationals/Giants Over 7.5 +105
    Last edited by FUqer; 05-31-17 at 07:01 AM. Reason: Added Nats/Giants Over

  28. #308
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Would Be Plays for Wednesday

    Marlins -1 +102
    Yankees -110
    Tigers +119
    Rangers RL +256
    White Sox RL +295
    Reds RL +193
    Athletics RL +202


    Braves/Angels Over 8 -103
    Cubs/Padres Over 7.5 -103
    Nationals/Giants Over 7.5 +105
    Twins RL +263

  29. #309
    FUqer
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    My angles on these RRL are playing off dogs in games where the total is 9 more, the higher the better.

    A team like the White Sox have won 46% of the time as a dog in that spot, but digging deeper, I found when they do win, it's by 2 or more 75% of the time. 75% of 46% is 34.4%, that's the chance the White Sox have by the numbers at winning by 2 or more. If you hit 33% of the time at +200 odds for -1.5, you will break even. Ok, that alone might not be worth it, but if you dig deeper, Home Dogs between +110 and +150 are 53% the last 2 seasons, which raises the chances to 40%. If you can win $200-$300 4 times out of every 10, that a very nice ROI.

    The Rangers odds are even better as they are 58% as a dog in that spot and 68% at Home, while winning by 2 or more 70% of the time.

    Home Dogs total of 10 or more and line between +110 and +130 have been 65% winners L2 seasons. Applies to the Twins and they win by 2 or more 79% of the time when they win.

    The Athletics and Reds aren't as good as odds, but I'm only tracking at this point, the A's are only 38% winning % in that spot, but when they do win, they win by 2 or more 82% of the time. The Reds was an added bonus against a pitcher I already like to fade in Bolsinger.

    I still need to back test this, I have only looked at the past seasons.
    Last edited by FUqer; 05-31-17 at 12:34 PM.

  30. #310
    thekoreanmang
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    I guess taking a break from these?

  31. #311
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by thekoreanmang View Post
    I guess taking a break from these?
    no, just posted bout them today, I haven't took any RRL but used it for dogs SU.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ussion-p3.html

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