Other thread too congested. Even though the first one was tough, I still maintain it was the best play on the board today. Anyway, a couple smaller plays for me tonight.
Devil Rays -129
The White Sox are the worst team in baseball against LHP. They're 6-14 against LHSP, scoring 3.5 rpg, and they are dead last in OPS against LHP. Hill and Marshall both shut them down last weekend, and Kazmir is better than both. He's won both career starts against CWS and has a 3.21 ERA in those games. Vazquez is 1-1 with a 6.35 ERA/1.72 WHIP/.340 BAA in 4 starts at the Trop. Normally the Rays bullpen would worry me, but Kazmir should be able to go deep into this one, and the White Sox pen is, by ERA, the worst in MLB.
Dodgers +132
RJ's first start off the DL, who knows how effective he'll be. He'll certainly be on a pitch count, and in his other start this year off the DL he gave up 6 ER in 5 IP to the Padres. The Dodgers are 14-6 (including 8-3 on the road) against LHSP this season. Wolf has been solid, not spectacular, but with the Dodgers having lineup and bullpen advantages, the price is right with the dog here.
I like the Dodgers as well, but TB, that is always risky, I like TB much more on the RL, or parlayed with the over. Or better yet the 5-inning minus line.
TB's bullpen of course is very vulnerable, and Kazmir has a particular problem with high pitch counts and a resulting difficulty getting deep into games.
If you're taking TB, you're basically betting that Vazquez will get hit, and Kazmir will throw well for 6 innings or so, and TB will then have a lead so big that their bullpen weakness will have a minimized impact on the game. In that case, the game is likely to go over, and TB is likely to win by more than one.
Of course it's possible that the game will be low-scoring, and that TB will have a small lead in the late innings. But if that is the case, anyone who has TB on the ML when the pens get involved will be really sweating it out.
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Two night plays
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