1. #1
    Capybara
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    Capy's 2017 MLB Action (+33 units in 2016 thread)

    Bases is back, baby, here we go!!!!!! No plays yet, just getting the thread set up.

    As noted, last year's thread finished with a profit of 33 units.

    For those who didn't follow last year, this is a pretty standard thread. No models in here, just my own attention to trends, stats, my own research into the starters, bullpens, and lineups, and my own eye test. Although I'll also be reviewing the models/plays of my very fine colleagues in here.

    I'll be playing ML's, totals, nine-inning and FF plays, team totals, run lines, alt run lines, and player props. Going to try my best to avoid run lines, as they are the devil, but it just can't be helped with Cubs games, etc.

    Let's go!!!!!!!!!

  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Salud, capy. Good luck.

  3. #3
    Capybara
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    Yanks/Rays FF under 3.5, -120 (1.5x)
    Yanks/Rays under 7, -115 (1x)

    And we're off!!!!

  4. #4
    Dollars2Donuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
    Yanks/Rays FF under 3.5, -120 (1.5x)
    Yanks/Rays under 7, -115 (1x)

    And we're off!!!!
    Good luck buddy! I would be happy with a 3-1 Tampa win today.

  5. #5
    Capybara
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    Nice start.

    Tanaka's spring:

    RK Player Team W L ERA G GS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG WHIP
    1 Tanaka, M NYY 3 1 0.38 6 6 0 0 23.2 9 2 1 0 5 28 .115 0.59

    Tanaka today:

    PITCHERS IP H R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
    M Tanaka 2.1 8 7 7 2 3 2 62-37 27.00

    Nice. Nine hits and a run across 24 dominant innings. Locked in, best in the bigs. Then eight hits and seven runs in two innings of start #1. Can't make this shit up!

    Nothing like starting the season up against it...

    Whatever, back to rebound later...

  6. #6
    Dollars2Donuts
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    I wanted to draft Tanaka in my big fantasy draft three weeks ago.....but he got taken earlier than I expected.

    He must think that I drafted him.

  7. #7
    Capybara
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    Cubs -120 (1.5x)

  8. #8
    Capybara
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dollars2Donuts View Post
    I wanted to draft Tanaka in my big fantasy draft three weeks ago.....but he got taken earlier than I expected.

    He must think that I drafted him.
    Hey, didn't mean to ignore you, D2! That's funny. What a bizarre start for him. I'll be playing him to bounce back next start.

  9. #9
    Capybara
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    Okay, let's get back to this.

    Rockies -105 (1x)

    Really like this Rockies team. And not super impressed with the lineup the Brew Crew are tossing out there tonight. I like Tyler Anderson for the Rox, think he could surprise some folks this year. Oddly, though, he pitched better at Coors last season. Let's get off the snide with this play.

    More to come.

  10. #10
    jjgold
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    Can he do it again this mlb season??

  11. #11
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Can he do it again this mlb season??

    Only one way to find out... Tail his ass...













    *no homo

  12. #12
    Capybara
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Can he do it again this mlb season??
    Sure hope so!
    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post


    Only one way to find out... Tail his ass...













    *no homo
    "No homo" posts never cease to make me chuckle. Thanks for checking in, BD!

  13. #13
    Capybara
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    Okay, been looking at tons of stuff today/tonight, but decided to keep it fairly simple:

    Rox again, -122 (1.5x)

    'Stros, -115 (1x)

    Basically two stacked lineups/teams on the rise going up against hittable pitchers. Peralta obviously, and I like Chatwood for Rox, he's a bulldog. For the other game, I'm not sold on Paxton yet. He could be this year's young stud but the 'Stros seem like exactly the lineup that could punish him. Anyway, that's what I've got for now! Might hit another later.
    Last edited by Capybara; 04-05-17 at 07:09 PM. Reason: Had wrong units.

  14. #14
    Capybara
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    Snakes -105 (1x) (sorry for last-second post)

  15. #15
    Capybara
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    [Live bet, through six] Rockies +3.5, +115 (1x)

  16. #16
    Capybara
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    Man, had a nice 2-1 night and wrecked it with a live loser. So a wash.

    I'll be tidying up the thread with the complete results/units soon. For now, just want to put some winners together.

    First one today:

    Rox/Brewers over 9.5, +100 (1x)

  17. #17
    Capybara
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    Well I was all over that play, huh?

    Some choppy waters here in the early going, but it was the same thing last year. Don't care, fighting through it. I like a bunch of plays tonight, and goddamn it, these are going at least 66.6%:

    Jays -134 (1x)

    Braves +138 (1x)

    Braves/Mets over 7.5, -110 (1x)

    Astros -1.5, +140 (1x)

    M's/Astros over 8.5, -125 (1x)

    D'Backs -104 (1x)

    Let's go!!

  18. #18
    Letsgovols22
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    Hey bud. If you are looking to tail, check out reesp18. GL

  19. #19
    Capybara
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    Quote Originally Posted by Letsgovols22 View Post
    Hey bud. If you are looking to tail, check out reesp18. GL
    What's up, Volsy? Thanks for the heads-up, brother, yeah I see he started hot. I'll be doing my thing, but if I can't get it going, then we'll see about blind-tailing my comrades in here, haha. Good luck this season!

  20. #20
    Letsgovols22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capybara View Post
    What's up, Volsy? Thanks for the heads-up, brother, yeah I see he started hot. I'll be doing my thing, but if I can't get it going, then we'll see about blind-tailing my comrades in here, haha. Good luck this season!
    You will be fine. Do your thing bro

  21. #21
    Capybara
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    3-3 yesterday. Will get to my full tally at some point.

    Couple of totals for this afternoon:

    Sox/Tigers under 8.5, -110 (1x)

    Nats/Phils over 7, -110 (1x)

    That first one might seem an odd choice, but I think Wright could be back to the same guy who was the Sox' best starter before the All-Star break last season. And Fullmer had a tremendously impressive rookie year, don't see why he can't pick it back up.

    Good luck with your plays today! Prob back sometime later.

  22. #22
    JAKEPEAVY21
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    cheers to another winning season pal!


  23. #23
    TechnicalTrader
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    Caps,did you take that NYY (Tanaka) under I was talking about on opening day?? Could work out pretty nicely but you never know with both of those lineups...

  24. #24
    Capybara
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    Okay, been busy hosting a friend from out of town this weekend, but finally did my record and unit tally, which is:

    7-9, -4.32x. Crap start, but was the same last season and we turned it around. Hopefully this year will be the same story.

    Today's first few plays I like:

    Dodgers/Rox under 10, -105 (1.5x)

    Like this a lot. Tyler Anderson pitched great at Coors last year. Rox pitchers have the train rolling so far.

    Tigers -105 (1.5x)

    Sox are messed up with the flu. Weird-looking lineup today.

    Orioles -113 (1x)

    More to come I think...
    Last edited by Capybara; 04-09-17 at 12:10 PM. Reason: Had wrong price for Rox bet

  25. #25
    Capybara
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    Added:

    Rays +105 (1x)

  26. #26
    Capybara
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    Quote Originally Posted by TechnicalTrader View Post
    Caps,did you take that NYY (Tanaka) under I was talking about on opening day?? Could work out pretty nicely but you never know with both of those lineups...
    Hey TT... I was pretty busy yesterday and skipped this thankfully. Would have been a tough loss!

  27. #27
    jjgold
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    real early

    I think early on tough to win

  28. #28
    Capybara
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    Added:

    Braves/Bucs FF under 4, +100 (1x)

  29. #29
    reesp18
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    GL Capybara!

  30. #30
    BIGDAY
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    Let's kick some ass today!!


  31. #31
    Capybara
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    No success thus far but will continue to fight until I'm down on the mat and counted out...

    Season record/units to date: 8-13, -8.55x.

    First couple I liked for tonight:

    Phils -113 (1.5x)

    Red Sox -1.5, +150 (1.5x)

  32. #32
    Capybara
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    Added:

    A's +105 (1.5x)

  33. #33
    Capybara
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    Glad I got that Sox play in. When knuckleballers are off, they are OFF.

    I'd considered backing Stroman. May get on the Jays for a live bet if the price drops somewhat... it was too steep.

  34. #34
    Capybara
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    [Live bet, mid 1st] Red Sox +5, -120 (2x)

    Lol. But no, they'll hit Jimenez. Wright either finds it or the pen contributes to keep Sox in this game.

  35. #35
    Capybara
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    Farrell needs to get Wright the fukk out of this Sox game. He's throwing BP!

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