[DLucky1]

Great Call yesterday

[Smutbucket]

Thanks Dlucky

4/21/17

Phillies (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units


Sea/Oak over 8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This low number kind of concerns me as the books seem to really what you to take the over. But we have every reason to in my opinion, maybe its just the bookies being crazy and following a market that tends to bet unders in oakland. I already talked about the downfall of Iwakuma, last game it got even worse, his velo's dropped even more. On top of that, Oakland has been hitting the ball well the last 14 days averaging a .344 wOBA. They are familiar with Iwakuma as they faced him 5 times last season with mixed results, but this year his velos are significantly down, I wouldnt be surprised if he pops up on an injury report soon. On the other side we have Manea, who has been doing well thus far this season but has skating by on a .189 BABIP and he struggles with his control. Seattle is one of the best hitting Lefty teams last year so I expect them to put up some runs. The biggest deterrent to this game is the ump behind the plate Caparazzo is one of the biggest under UMPs around, but given the stats of the SPs and the BPs....we'll take our chances.

[2daBank]

Iwakuma looks god awful and think you may be correct a dl stint could be in the near future. Gl buddy

[Smutbucket]

Ya Pissed was leaning just taking A's whole way and then had a change of heart and went with over....fuking hate that

yesterday results: 1-1 -.1 units

No writeups today fellas sorry this is a tough card and been a lot of digging and just dont feel like a writeup, hungover still

4/22/17
Rays (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Mets (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units

may add a play later

[2daBank]

I'm on fence w tampons. Liked them when I thought we could get +115ish, then it stopped going up and went back to +105 and I soured. Little scared of stros power mixed with snells high walk rate.

Muts game seemed tricky as well, I found lots of reasons to be against gio then I clicked on his record at citi and was like "damn", if I recall correct he something like 9-1 there? Is that right?

[Smutbucket]

Ya, biggest factor with Tampons is Morton has always struggled against lefties and they putting out an all Lefty lineup. I like Snell's stuff and Houston isnt particularly good at hitting lefties. Snell much better at home too

Ya Gio has always won a lot of games at citifield, but looking into the game logs for the last 2 years, he's had a 100% LOB % in almost every game and a below .250 BABIP....he's been having a good season thus far but against some weak competition. think his stats will regress to the norm for him. Degrom also for whatever reason is unhittable during the day. He is 15-3 , 1.56 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, .935 WHIP in day games throughout his carreer

Good luck on the tigers, Both pitchers are getting MAJORLY SQUEEZED by this ump

[mohye1980]

What are your thoughts on Rockies? Moore sucks on the road sucks against the Rockies.

[2daBank]

I ended up on Tampa, Morton vs lefties was big factor for me as well. Mostly was just pissed I had to settle for cheaper price.

Far as muts I can't remember now but there were lots of compelling reasons to back them vs Gio I agree. His record at citi just scared me off considering how short handed muts are that made it easy pass for me but hope you cash. Gio always on brink of wild and if I recall not a great ump for him. Few walks and a blast may be all ya need..

Can't hardly blame ump in minny (although I did think he was unfair to Boyd), when neither pitcher (especially minny) can hit broad side of barn it lulls you into thinking everything a ball. I was screaming at tigers hitters all 1st inning to just not swing, they would have scored several runs if they had just kept bat on shoulders. Being the bums they are they pretty much let a guy who couldn't throw a strike off the hook.

[Smutbucket]

ugh, I wish I had just taken the under in the tampa game thats what originally my thought was but decided to do tampons instead. this is gonna be a long nail biter

Adding
Rockies/Giants Over 10.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
After much debate for which night game to select I just decided to go with the obvious old textbook play. 2 bad pitchers in coords on a cold very low air density day.

[2daBank]

What makes you say senzatela is a bad pitcher? I could def see you saying that bout Moore and don't think he like coors 1 bit. Certainly good chance to see runs all over in this one. just curious why you say the rox youngster bad?

[Smutbucket]

I just hate two pitch pitchers, sure he has a changeup too but only throws it 5% of the time. Hitters will sit on fastball knowing he throws it 75% of the time, his Z-O% is in the 40's because of that and of course a low swstrike%. He just faced SFG too in the bay and gave up 3 runs on 7 hits. I havent watched him so maybe he has some great location but his pitching abilities do not impress me.

[2daBank]

He just a rookie. His heater really good and he seems to locate it pretty well. Slider has potential. Not saying he a ace, just think at this point calling him bad pretty extreame. There certainly a case to be made for over and sf getting some runs. I was just curious why you think he bad. Gl buddy

[Smutbucket]

Ya you were right Santezela pitched well. It was an overreaction, I was just hungover and was putting together a lazy writeup. Love Sundays so Ill be digging away tomorrow and wont be so careless. Got lucky the Rockies got it on their own.

[2daBank]

Had a feeling you would still be ok. Didn't post them but I had rox rl in a parlay. The "both bad pitchers" statement was half right, Moore pretty much stinks and that magnifies at coors.

I been flat out smoking the last 3 weekends. Weekdays have been far worse during this stretch but way less volume and still been hanging around 50% on mainly dogs. I ever mention how much I freaking love bases? Lol.

[Smutbucket]

yesterday results: 2-1 +.97 units

4/23/17
Yankees (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Montgomery is one of my new favorite youngsters, I randomly watched him a few times during spring training. Although its in a very small size, he has batters guessing more than any other pitcher. He has batters swinging at a league best 38.8% outside the zone and a 26% difference between those swung at in the zone from outside the zone. Meanwhile Nova faces his ex-team yankees for the first time. His stuff is predictable especially to the yankees and he's sporting the league high contact % at 89% and zone contact % at 97.5. These stats have come in 3 games against poor hitting teams. Pirates are not particularly well at hitting Lefties either. No reason not to take the yankees here for a unit.


Cleveland -1 RL (-160) Risking 1.6 units to win 1 units
These two pitchers and teams just faced off against each other, and although Holland squeaked out a 2-1 win over Salazar, a deeper look into the numbers for that game give you reason to believe they were very fortunate in that game. Holland could not place the ball in the zone without cleveland making contact, with a 100% zone contact %, they barely swung at the stuff outsize the zone at 19.3%. Their swinging strike % was 3% for the game. They hit the balls hard too, 40% of the time, just to the wrong spots with a .063 BABIP and a 100% LOB. Salazar on the other hand had a much different game, only allowing a 70% contact % and a 15.1 SwingStrike%. He had the white sox swinging at 33% of balls outside the zone, had 11 Strikeouts. Last game against the twins he had an impeccable 8.3 contact % outside the zone against minnesota. I usually don't like taking this much juice but these number differences are extreme and just goes to show you in baseball the best pitching performance always doesn't win, but to have them lose two times in two weeks with a superior performance? that would be very rare.

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 0-2 -2.65 units

4/24/17
Reds FF (-114) Risking 1.71 units to win 1.5 units
Reds are very familiar with Garza's underwhelming stuff. This will be his first major league game this year after a couple games in the minors showing more of the same. Last year in the 2 games against the Reds, the batters were swinging at over 75% of pitches in the zone and making zone contact in 94% in one game, and 100% in the other. Brewers have never seen Garret and it has proven to be a struggle for most batters. His curveball in this short season is allowing a .059 OPS, something the brewers are not particularly good at hitting the last two seasons according to wCB/C.


KCR/CHW Under 7.5 (-116) Risking 1.16 units to win 1 units
Vargas is having a very impressive season. He has the 10th lowest contact % at 71.2, while still hitting the zone at an impressively high 52% (ranked 8th) His Swinging Strike% is ranked 11th at 13.4%. Even though he has slow velo's his curveball has been one of the best the last two seasons (although in small samples sizes) which the white sox are the 3rd worst team at hitting this season. Miguel has always pitched well against this KCR team, inducing a lot of soft contact. Both teams have the lowest wRC+ this season. Both teams have good BPs this season even though KCR has been under-performing.

[Smutbucket]

Adding
Blue JAys (+120) Risking 1 unit to win 1.2 units

[Smutbucket]

yesterday results: 0-3 -3.87 units

YTD : 18-16 -1.2 units

ugh, two rough days like this ..... "Life is hard.....but so am I".......time to recoup....

[Smutbucket]

4/25/17
Seattle FF RL -.5 (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Oakland (+117) Risking 1 unit to win 1.17 units

[Smutbucket]

yesterday: 0-2 -2 units



4/26/17
White Sox (-132) Risking 1.32 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Finally a Win!

Adding:

Minn/Tex Over 9 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
This is one of those WTF numbers. Both pitchers have been pitching well, both teams have been struggling to hit lefties yet the total is 9? The bookies could have put a 7.5 as total and I would have thought nothing of it but the fact that its a 9 is a red flag that this game is going over. In years past I would have been hook line and sinker with a number like this and bet the under but I have learned to spot the trap lines and have a fellow SBR gambler (joco) who confirms this line is fishy as fuk. Maybe one of you totals experts can fill me in on why maybe weather tunnel effect or something but I think this game goes over easily, unless of course reverse trap is in effect, then touche bookies, touche.

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 2-0 +2 units

4/27/17
LAD/SFG FF Under 4 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Dodgers can't hit lefties like I had talked about before. Moore has only allowed a .186 BAA and .250 wOBA in 80 PA. Urias stuff is very nasty, lets see if he can maintain control.

Rockies (+111) Risking 1 unit to win 1.11 units
Gio relies on his curveball to fool batters and relies on it 25% of the time this season. Problem is there is some science behind curveballs not breaking the way they should at Coors field. Gio has had two awful games at Coors field and last year his curveball was smashed for a -24.5 wCB/c at Coors. Expect more of the same here and we got Senzatela on our side who knows how to manage his own stadium and rely on his FB 75% of the time.

[2daBank]

Like the under in sf as well.

I thought curveballs fared better than sliders at coors? Am I wrong on this?? Either way I like rox too., gl buddy

[Smutbucket]

Ive read a few articles that have said the curveball doesnt break as much there....also noticed a few curveball pitchers not far well like Gios two outings in coors

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/co...discussion_on/
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=20069

Thanks for posting your picks 2dabank tring to recover after a bad couple days

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday : 1-1 + 0 units

4/28
Hou/Oak Under 8.5 (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 units
same matchup from a while back that got PPD, same writeup

[2daBank]

On that total as well. Pissed I had to step out while was waiting on ump and missed when it was +105..

[Smutbucket]

Anyone have a good site to see trends for entire league, like totals/overs? feel like steroids are back and hitters are killing it

Yesterday: 0-1 -1 units

may add some

4/29/17

Blue Jays (-114) Risking 1.14 units to win 1 units

KC (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Hughes is getting hit harder than anyone in the MLB with 50% of his batted balls being hit hard. He is also sporting a 25% LD %, and the 2nd highest contact % at 87.5%. He also has the 4th worst swingstrike% at 6%. If KC is going to break out of this offensive funk they are in, it should be against this guy at home. Hammel is one of these seasoned veterans who is just an average pitcher but has matured and improved over time through expierence. His slider has improved a lot since being with the cubs and his pitch selection is varying. This is a good spot to take him for his first win of the season.

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday REsults : 1-0 +1 unit

ReBet PPD game from yesterday, today.

4/30/17

Oak +1.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
KC (-126) Risking 1.26 units to win 1 units

may add more

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday : 0-2 -2.46 units

Im done taking small favs, all dogs here,

5/1/17
Baltimore (+130) Risking 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Reds (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Blue Jays (+175) Risking 1 unit to win 1.75 units
Giants (+230) Risking 1 unit to win 2.3 units

[No coincidences]

Yesterday : 0-2 -2.46 units

Im done taking small favs, all dogs here,

5/1/17
Baltimore (+130) Risking 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Reds (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Blue Jays (+175) Risking 1 unit to win 1.75 units
Giants (+230) Risking 1 unit to win 2.3 units

To be honest, they really never should be backed in any sport under any circumstances. I've noticed that through the years.

Like your card.

[Smutbucket]

To be honest, they really never should be backed in any sport under any circumstances. I've noticed that through the years.

Like your card.

Good point. The common square is compelled and drawn to the short favs. Ive always been one to focus on stats and numbers of the game for baseball and not worry about the line so much (just pick the winner) but Im starting to look at things differently and adapt. Hopefully this will spark a winning trend upwards.

Of course I knew it was gonna be an especially good day as my account was low from yesterday and I didnt feel like redepositing and lowered my unit size from 300 to 200 and sure enough, 3-0 start....its like a magic charm I have, bet less on winner, bet more on losers

[Smutbucket]

Yesterday Results: 4-0 +6.35 units

still celebrating from the huge day yesterday holy shit I needed that.....

5/2/17

Padres (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Cahill is on the mound and is sporting some interesting numbers so far this season. He has some of the most impressive plate discipline % this year since he has added a cutter to his arsenal and although he is only hitting the zone 41% of the time, batters are swinging at 37% outside of the zone and only 49% inside the zone. That's an extremely low Z-O swing% differential and attests to some of his deception this season. Over the last few years this differential has been dropping and improving. He is also sporting a 14% SwStrike% after last seasons career high at 11%. Chatwood is on the other side and doesn't have very impressive stuff. His FB-CH differential is only 7 mph and he pitches his fastball 70% of the time. His career Z-O swing% differential has been in the 40s his entire career which is below average. WE'll take the Pads at home at even money.

Tex/Hou Over 9 (+100) Risking 1 units to win 1 units
Theirs a great article on fangraphs about Hamels and his overdue regression this season based off his plate discipline numbers. What better team for this to happen against then the stros. I think the Rangers bats are waking up and should have no problem doing so against Fiers.

Oakland (+116) Risking 1 unit to win 1.16 units

[2daBank]

I read the fangraphs article and while naturally hamels has declined a little as we all do when we get older (without juice), I think the doom and gloom talk of his demise is a little premature. He had very similar numbers last season after his 1st handful of starts. I think the fact he been able to maintain a solid era despite those numbers they speak of more a testament to his savvy than the "luck" that bunch likes to give credit for everything. I suspect those bad numbers creep to more respectable and he able to maintain about the same era throughout the season. I been wrong before tho! Lol. Not saying I hate the over, just disagree with their assessment of the player. Gl buddy, hopefully Texas (who I'm on) scores a bunch for you!

[No coincidences]

Good point. The common square is compelled and drawn to the short favs. Ive always been one to focus on stats and numbers of the game for baseball and not worry about the line so much (just pick the winner) but Im starting to look at things differently and adapt. Hopefully this will spark a winning trend upwards.

Of course I knew it was gonna be an especially good day as my account was low from yesterday and I didnt feel like redepositing and lowered my unit size from 300 to 200 and sure enough, 3-0 start....its like a magic charm I have, bet less on winner, bet more on losers

I know how that goes.

BOL tonight.

[2daBank]

I know how that goes.

BOL tonight.

That why I bet them all the same!! I save fuckin up my weighted bets for NFL like god intended!! Lol