Tampa Bay ML, RL: Obviously, the White Sox are having major problems right now. They've lost 5 in a row, are 5-17 on the month, and scored only 2 runs in their last 3 games. Facing Jay Howell, a decent lefty on the improve, is not going to help them out of their rut at all.
The Sox particularly struggle against quality lefties, and both of Howell's starts at home this year, against similarly unimpressive lineups, were very good. If he has an outing resembling those 2, which is likely, the Sox will be hard-pressed to come away with a win.
Tampa Bay's lineup can get going at times, particularly against mediocre pitching, which is what Sox' starter John Danks has been this year. Tampa Bay is only a modest ML favorite, and is a good-sized underdog with the RL, and both have value IMO.
Colorado ML, RL: Rockies' starter Jeff Francis is really going well of late, and he's showing no signs of slowing down. He's getting a lot of strikeouts and ground ball outs, and he's been very consistent. Over his last 10 starts, he's given up 2 runs or fewer 8 times, and the other two starts weren't terrible, he gave up 4 in each of them. And this has been against all comers, weak and strong, in all kinds of parks, home and away.
Cubs' starter Marquis, on the other hand, has been faltering pretty badly of late. He's always been streaky, and when he goes bad, he can get hit hard. He hasn't won in more than a month, and his only good start was at Petco. The Rockies have a potent lineup that will be able to take advantage in a major way if Marquis is off again, especially after almost getting no-hit on Sunday.
The Cubs' lineup is getting better, no question about that, with the return of Ramirez, and with their bigger bats not struggling like they were in the beginning of the season.
But all in all, Colorado probably has value rated even on the ML, and with a RL that will be around +140.
Kansas City/Angels over: Angel Stadium, normally a solid under trender, this year has played a bit differently, due in large part to the Angels' balanced and productive lineup. This year, games have easily gone over when the circumstances have been promising, and this game might be one of those.
Angels' starter John Lackey may not currently be the same quality-start machine he was in the first 2 months of the year. He's been off his game a bit the past few weeks, and after his last start, there were reports of "shoulder tightness", and he didn't go on Sunday because of shoulder tendinitis, but he'll be making this start anyway. He may turn out to be fine, but the reports combined with his recent performance are cause for concern.
On the other side, KC starter John Thomson is probably not ready to be in the majors right now. He was cut by Toronto, had arm problems earlier in the year, and did not do well in the minors this year. But now he's up, facing the Angels' lineup, and it will be a surprise if he does well.
KC's lineup is often good for a few bursts of scoring during games, and with a modest total of 8.5, the over has value IMO.
I agree with Colorado and I do lean to the Angels Over, but we disagree on the other game as I am on the White Sox (gulp!).
I would not call -130 "modestly favored" for a team like Tampa Bay. After all, remember that it IS the Devil Rays, and though improved, they are still under .500 at home. Also, I don't consider Howell a "quality" lefty, and I actually think Danks has the bigger upside between the two starters.
Danks has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last nine starts, but he has had some control issues preventing him from working deeper into games. That could be neutralized here though by the fact that the over-aggressive D-Rays lineup does not like to walk.
Howell has been up in the bigs for three years now without success, and I am not sold that he is on the improve, as shutting down KC and SD proves nothing. Sure the Sox offense is horrific too, but I can't lay -130 with this guy vs. what I feel is a better pitcher.
The bullpens both suck, so that's a wash. All things considered, I played White Sox +124.
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June 25th Ganchalysis: Early Plays
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