1. #1
    The HG
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    June 22 Ganchalysis: Early plays and leans

    Cle/Wash under: The 3 straight easy overs in the Detroit series has left this total too high, IMO. Cleveland on the surface may seem similar to Detroit, but they have a weaker lineup and a better bullpen.

    In this game, one of the starters will be Carmona, one of the top starters in the league right now. After a rocky first start to the season, Carmona has had 11 quality starts, and only one bad one (against Detroit, naturally). The Washington lineup in this park will challenge him considerably less than he is used to.

    On the other side, Micah Bowie has actually pitched decently in his new role as a starter. Holding Cleveland down to a handful of runs would not be a surprise at all, and is in fact likely.

    The runs will trickle in over the innings, but 9.5 gives a decent amount of leeway for an under considering the venue and pitching.


    Florida ML: This game is very evenly matched on paper, and the line reflects that. However, there should be a small but solid edge on the side of Florida here.

    Minnesota will miss the DH, and Scott Olsen will be unfamiliar to Minnesota's lineup and should be able to keep them at bay, as he did with Cleveland at home recently. Bonser is ok, but Florida's lineup is capable, and they should have a small edge in the later innings if the game is close. Again, the edge is small, but the confidence factor associated with it is relatively high.


    Colorado ML: The wrong team is favored here, IMO. Colorado has a notably productive lineup, and they will challenge Towers, a "contact" pitcher. Colorado starter Hirsh is having his problems, but he has less of a potential downside than Towers. Colorado has a better starter, a better lineup, and is the underdog, and I think they have value.


    Oakland ML: The Mets are not in good shape right now, and neither is Glavine. He is likely to bounce back of course, after being on the road against Detroit and the Yankees. But even if he does, this game is likely to be competitive down to the end.

    DiNardo has proven to be reasonably crafty and capable, and he should do ok against the Mets' struggling lineup. Oakland has an unspectacular but solid and balanced lineup, up and down the order, and they should be able to keep pace against Glavine. The Mets should have an edge in the later innings, but Oakland has value IMO as a decent-sized underdog.


    Phi/Stl under: This is a strikingly high total considering the teams involved. True, Reyes has not pitched well this year, but he does have potential, and all 4 of his starts at home so far this year have gone under the total of 10 for this game anyway.

    On the other side, Moyer is the kind of guy who knows how to get outs and survive innings, and his soft tosses are not likely to get pounded by St Louis, although they are admittedly hitting much better than they were in the beginning of the year. The runs will come, but getting to 11 will not be an easy task. Under 10 has value IMO.


    Arizona ML: The edge is small here due to Arizona's high line, but it has high confidence, so as a big favorite bet, it has value. Arizona's lineup is resurgent, and Cabrera has struggled in most of his starts. The Baltimore bullpen of course has been shaky all year, and always a threat to blow a lead or a close game.

    On the other side, Webb against the Baltimore lineup should be a much different affair. Webb has done well against everyone except Colorado this year, and in his last start, he faced Baltimore and held them down. Here he is likely to work the same stuff against them, and now Tejada will be out to boot.

    After winning and traveling, Baltimore will likely be in for a bit of a letdown, exacerbated by Webb's effectiveness and a rest day for Arizona. Add it all up, and Arizona has value here IMO, even as a big favorite.


    Angels ML, under: Zach Duke has been having problems, the Pittsburgh lineup is struggling, and their bullpen is vulnerable and depleted. That is not a good recipe for a win going against the strong home team Angels, who will have a capable lineup, strong bullpen, and solid starter going, all off of a rest day. Angels' home games have been going over of late, but here, a total of 9.5 is a bit high considering what a funk Pittsburgh is in offensively. All in all, I see decent value in both the Angels, even as a big favorite, and the under.

  2. #2
    tevari
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    like all your plays, sans Oakland.

  3. #3
    bigboydan
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    I'm with you on the Rockies Mr.HG.

  4. #4
    onlooker
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    Out of all those plays, the only one I am playing is the Athletics +135.

    Good luck on your plays HG.

  5. #5
    Razz
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    Totally disagree on Colorado. They don't have a superior starter or lineup in this game. They are, however, playing very well, so I can understand the thought process of taking them as a dog. I'm on Toronto because of the strong situation in their favor as well as the fact that Towers is pitching much better than his ERA would suggest (His 1.26 WHIP is better than Matsuzaka, Meche, Pettite, Schilling, etc. and a 6-1 K-BB ratio is very impressive) and Hirsh hasn't faced any offenses as good as the one he will see tonight.

    Like the Marlins a lot as well, leaning to the A's. Good luck tonight.

  6. #6
    rjt721
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    Why does everyone like the A's?

    -137 is a cheap price for Glavine and the Mets at home against Lenny DiNardo. I know the Mets are struggling right now and Glavine's been shelled in each of his last 2 starts, but those were on the road against the Tigers and Yanks, likely the 2 best offenses in baseball. Oakland's ordinary lineup should be what he needs to get back on track.

    I know DiNardo's overall numbers are impressive, but with the exception of Boston, he has yet to face a lineup comparable to the Mets. DiNardo is simply not a good pitcher. He was hit hard by the Cards in his last start and I think it will be more of the same tonight. Reyes, Wright, Beltran and company are too good to keep down for this long and they should hammer a mediocre pitcher like DiNardo.

    I don't see any value at all with Oakland. The more I look at this game, the more I like the Mets RL +145.

  7. #7
    The HG
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    RJT, I just signed on to say that I switched over to the Mets as well. Yes, I think the Mets are the right side in this one actually, I switched my bet over to them, I agree with you, although the RL makes me uncomfortable, I like the ML.

    I write up the games I both like confidently and think I won't switch over on, but sometimes it doesn't work out like that. I like the Mets here as well.

  8. #8
    bigboydan
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    Your not the only one that got screwed in that Rockies game Mr.HG. I don't mind losing at all, but not on a a damn throwing error like that.

  9. #9
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigboydan View Post
    Your not the only one that got screwed in that Rockies game Mr.HG. I don't mind losing at all, but not on a a damn throwing error like that.

    Yeah, them's the breaks. I never get mad at a team for losing, only at myself if I think I made a bad pick.

    Still, it sure would be nice to get a good break (an Angels win) in this Angels game now in extra innings.

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