[trobin31]

Given the propensity of Japansee pitchers to utilize sinkers, splitters and pretty much every junk ball one could throw I think it's a reasonable question to ask based on the eye test how these guys perform in the post season.

Here's what I found

Hideo Nomo 0-2 era 10.38
Yu Darvish 0-2; 5.40
Tanaka 0-1; 3.60
Maeda 0-1, +no decision; 9.00

These are the only names that popped in my head, sure I'm missing a few so feel free to contribute.

Yu Darvish is only one not fitting the mold of your typical Japanese "junk-ball" pitcher but that hasn't seemed to gain him any better results.

Tanaka had a decent showing last year against the Astros but still took a loss. But Tanaka has some velocity to change in with his junk, Maeda is lucky to hit 90mph.

Everything will hinge on Maeda feel for the slider. Lately, he has had no feel for it. In turn relying on the curveball which is probably one of his worst pitches. If cubs have a weakness against right handers it is against the slider. Curveball, fastball they will crush like no tomorrow.

Not much to say about Lester who consistently brings better splits come sept/oct. His cutter is the best in all of of baseball at wCT 18.4 and just dives away from lefties and against right handed hitters starts middle but almost hits the back foot crossing the plate. The one thing I'll point out is Lester has lost his last 2 away games in the postseason and caught a no decision after giving up 6 runs to KC 2014, so that probably should be 3 straight losses.

Is this game as simple as fading yet another Japanese junk ball pither in the post season? My numbers say Dodgers are a play all the way down to +120 and Maeda is overdue for a market correction not only for himself but for all of Japan. So I'll have to take dodgers at the current number but by no means does it pass my smell test. The lines usually move towards my number by +/- 10-15 about 65% of the time so would be prudent to take dodgers now if you like 'em.

[OTL]

Good write up.

To add to this, the line is too low for Lester vs this bum Maeda. 70% of wagers have come in on the Cubs, yet the line has barely moved. The books seem comfortable taking all the Cubs money they can get in this spot.