[LT Profits]

Please note that the data was through games of last Tuesday, 6/12/07.


MLB 2007: Year of the Road Favorite?
06/19/2007 03:52 PM
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group | sbrforum.com


Value players are having a tough go in 2007 favorites have performed much better than in previous years, and blindly playing all American League favorites has turned a profit.

If you are a value player in Major League Baseball that plays primarily underdogs, and you feel that the going has been tougher than usual this season, well you are correct! This is especially true if you, like many others, prefer to bet home underdogs.

More on road favorites later, but for now, let us begin our discussion with the entire population of favorites. The following chart shows the performance of all favorites so far this season in specific price ranges, including all games through Tuesday, June 12:

ALL Favorites W L Pct Units
-106 to -119 122 104 54.0% 5.81
-120 to -129 79 53 59.8% 12.92
-130 to -139 89 59 60.1% 9.41
-140 to -149 63 49 56.3% -7.81
-150 to -159 46 36 56.1% -9.34
-160 to -179 64 46 58.2% -13.63
-180 to -199 31 10 75.6% 12.35
-200 to -249 34 22 60.7% -13.57
-250 to -299 5 3 62.5% -2.94
-300 to -399 2 1 66.7% -1.16
-400+ 0 1 0.0% -4.15

All Favorites 535 384 58.2% -12.11

Blindly betting all favorites so far would have netted a small loss of -12.11 units, which is like a moral victory compared to past years. What is interesting however is that all favorites of less than -140 are indeed showing a profit so far, as teams that are between -106 and -139 are 290-216, 57.3 percent for +28.14 units! That translates to a half-decent ROI of 5.6 percent.

What is really revealing however as what happens when we break these numbers out between Home Favorites and Road Favorites. Consider the following:

Home Favorites W L Pct Units
-106 to -119 70 56 55.6% 7.12
-120 to -129 38 36 51.4% -6.95
-130 to -139 61 43 58.7% 2.94
-140 to -149 48 36 57.1% -4.09
-150 to -159 34 25 57.6% -4.49
-160 to -179 50 40 55.6% -17.55
-180 to -199 30 7 81.1% 16.80
-200 to -249 31 21 59.6% -14.53
-250 to -299 5 3 62.5% -2.94
-300 to -399 2 1 66.7% -1.16
-400+ 0 1 0.0% -4.15

All Home Favorites 369 269 57.8% -29.00

Road Favorites W L Pct Units
-106 to -119 52 48 52.0% -1.31
-120 to -129 41 17 70.7% 19.87
-130 to -139 28 16 63.6% 6.47
-140 to -149 15 13 53.6% -3.72
-150 to -159 12 11 52.2% -4.85
-160 to -179 14 6 70.0% 3.92
-180 to -199 1 3 25.0% -4.45
-200+ 3 1 75.0% 0.96

All Road Favorites 166 115 59.1% 16.89

As you can see, blindly betting all road favorites in 2007 has actually produced a profit of +16.89 units, while home favorites have performed as in past years, losing 29 units thus far. The interesting subset for home chalk so far has been the -180 to -199 category, where the teams are an incredible 30-7 for +16.80 units! However, that is by far the best performing range for favorites of -140 or greater, and with a limited sample size of 37 games, it is probably just an anomaly.

Road favorites have been amazing however, much to the chagrin of home underdog players that have been so successful in the past. Note the performance of road favorites between -120 and -129, as these clubs are 41-17 for +19.87. If we again draw the line at -140 and only bet road chalk up to -139, road favorites are 121-81, 59.9 percent, +25.03 units so far for an exceptional ROI of 12.4 percent!

We further broke out the favorites by league, again with interesting results:

Favorites by League W L Pct Units
American League Faves 266 169 61.1% 17.97
National League Faves 269 215 55.6% -30.08

National League favorites have been par for the course when compared to past years, but American League favorites have broken the bank to this point. Furthermore, if we use the seemingly magical cut-off point of -140, AL favorites up to -139 are 134-87 for a terrific +28.84 units, translating to an ROI of 13.0 percent.

Finally, here are the top three performing teams as favorites so far this season:

Teams as Favorites W L Pct Units
Boston 35 13 72.9% 15.21
Arizona 24 8 75.0% 13.33
LA Angels 30 13 69.8% 10.04

The Red Sox have been a consistent favorite across all areas, while the Diamondbacks are an amazing 11-1 as a road favorite and the Angels are 15-4 for +9.88 units when favored by less than -140.

[Dark Horse]

Good stuff and food for thought. Thanks.

[Dark Horse]

Please note that the data was through games of last Tuesday, 6/12/07.

ALL Favorites W L Pct Units

-200 to -249 34 22 60.7% -13.57
-250 to -299 5 3 62.5% -2.94
-300 to -399 2 1 66.7% -1.16
-400+ 0 1 0.0% -4.15

Losing 21.82 units over 68 games betting favorites of -200 and more. Nice dog angle that produced in 2006 as well (but not in 2005). Now to find one or two filters, like which teams or what type of winning percentages not to fade.

[LT Profits]

DH,

Could you break out your 2006 data by league? My gut feeling is that fading big NL chalks is the way to go.

[Dark Horse]

Not without a major effort. Maybe later.

Filtering out interleague could be tough. Interleague...
I think the last three days (interleague) the O/U is 28-11.

[Dark Horse]

Actually, may be able to figure it out with sportsdatabase.com.
Very cool data base. Just have to find my way around the controls.

[Dark Horse]

Ok, this is from another site than the previous numbers. I don't understand why there is such a big difference between the sites, but the numbers are:

For the 2006 season dogs or +200 or more in the NL were 1-11.
In the AL they were 15-42. Both losers.

For 2007 the NL is 6-5 and the AL is 2-6.

Edit:
I think these results from Sportsdatabase are wrong. Just did a search for Favorites up to -140 and the results give me a loss for backing the favorites as well as a loss for betting against them. So forget that database. Oh well.

[LT Profits]

DH,

Don't trust sportsdatabase. Also I wouldn't bother spending much time specifically on interleague matchups, since that they are a small percentage of the scdedule. When I said look at NL only, I meant any game where the NL team was the big chalk, be it inside the NL or in interleague.

What type of file is your 2006 data on?

[Dark Horse]

I did it quickly from statfox. The problem is that 2005 didn't produce. If I'm going to set aside a lot of time to identifying a reliable angle, the initial glance needs to be more promising than that.

I would want to find out if a season, once the tone is set, follows the trend to the end. This season the +200 dogs are doing very well so far. But it comes down to time, and at least for today I'm all out of that commodity.