1. #1
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    TT's 2016 Playoffs O/U's and Sides Thread

    I'm running a simple strategy which has been backtested with great results. I've used my 1st inning strategy and converted it in to a playoff strategy. Something that wouldn't work in the regular season due random SP matchups.

    I'm basically looking at teams bullpens' which have performed a certain way over a certain period of games. Teams usually go with a 3-man rotation, filling in with their SP4 ond SP5 as soon as their starter gets in trouble, so I'm not really even looking at the first five innings.

    Well, as soon as I get a signal I'll let you know! Let's see how this goes. DD, let's do this!!!

  2. #2
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    Two systems; System one evaluates the entire team. System two is bullpens only. Similar to what DD was doing.

    System 1:

    BOS/CLE Under, risking 4% of BR

    Dating back to 2004 this system has seen only 2 over's in a row. This is where things get interesting... The first game of that series was October 07, 2006 (DET/NYY), the second a year later (ARZ/CHC) on October 05, 2007. So theoretically it wasn't two games in a row.

    Dating back to Oct 01, 2004 this system has gone 25-11, with 5 pushes.
    Last edited by TechnicalTrader; 10-06-16 at 12:55 PM.

  3. #3
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    One last thing, The system is 4-0-1 this October. Wish I found this a few weeks ago... LMAO

  4. #4
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    System 1: TOR, RL (-178)
    risking 3% of BR

  5. #5
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    1-1, down ca. 1.5% of BR.

    The only play I have today is TOR/TEX(-105), no runs in the first.

    Risking 3% of BR,

  6. #6
    mohye1980
    mohye1980's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-25-14
    Posts: 2,363
    Betpoints: 4790

    Quote Originally Posted by TechnicalTrader View Post
    1-1, down ca. 1.5% of BR.

    The only play I have today is TOR/TEX(-105), no runs in the first.

    Risking 3% of BR,
    Cash $$$$ thanks for posting

  7. #7
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    2:1,will get the exact numbers up later.

    Next up:

    First 5inn:
    SF/CHC, under 3.5 (-115)
    Risking 3% of BR

  8. #8
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    Bankroll day 1: $1,000.00
    Record: 2:1
    Total Profit: 1.35%
    Bankroll day 1,013.50: $

    Hit rate: 66.66%

    Baby steps

  9. #9
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    I'm looking at one first inning under on today's card. I'll post it later today, need to take a longer look at it.

    I will also be raising my stakes due to the low volume of MLB bets, most likely something around 5-7% of BR.

    Bankroll day 2: $1,000.00
    Record: 3:1
    Total Profit: 4.24%
    Bankroll day 1,042.46: $

    Hit rate: 75.00%

  10. #10
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    no plays today. Should have at least one tomorrow

  11. #11
    doubledime
    doubledime's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-09
    Posts: 9,751
    Betpoints: 8876

    Quote Originally Posted by TechnicalTrader View Post
    I'm looking at one first inning under on today's card. I'll post it later today, need to take a longer look at it.

    I will also be raising my stakes due to the low volume of MLB bets, most likely something around 5-7% of BR.

    Bankroll day 2: $1,000.00
    Record: 3:1
    Total Profit: 4.24%
    Bankroll day 1,042.46: $

    Hit rate: 75.00%
    Keep it going

  12. #12
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    Quote Originally Posted by doubledime View Post
    Keep it going
    Thanks.

    Today's play:

    TEX/TOR, no score in the first (-110)
    risking 5%

  13. #13
    doubledime
    doubledime's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-22-09
    Posts: 9,751
    Betpoints: 8876

    Quote Originally Posted by TechnicalTrader View Post
    Thanks.

    Today's play:

    TEX/TOR, no score in the first (-110)
    risking 5%
    Good luck today TT

  14. #14
    SlickRick1382
    If hustlin' is a must; be Sosa, not Tony
    SlickRick1382's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-15-11
    Posts: 3,838
    Betpoints: 11517

    Any thoughts for tonight?

  15. #15
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    Today's play:
    1st inning, no runs. Risking 5%

  16. #16
    grombom125
    grombom125's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-14
    Posts: 93
    Betpoints: 3492

    Hey TT First time in this thread. Looks promising though. Any plays for today?

  17. #17
    TechnicalTrader
    Empty your mind... be water my friend!
    TechnicalTrader's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-09-16
    Posts: 1,434
    Betpoints: 2315

    Quote Originally Posted by grombom125 View Post
    Hey TT First time in this thread. Looks promising though. Any plays for today?
    Actually, yes. Under 1st inning on the CLE/TOR game. CLE's SP is a rookie so I'm only risking 2%.

    Was going to wait for lineups to be published but screw it.

Top