Originally Posted by
HeeluvaGuy
9/2:
Toledo/Arkansas St o64.5 -105
Let’s do this one by units …
Arkansas St. Offense - Last season Arkansas St scored 40 ppg (#12 nationally) and ranked #1 in offensive yards per point (one of my favorite stats), averaging 11 YPPT. The Red Wolves’ ran an average of 77.1 plays per game, which was tied for #30 in the country. The good news is that Arky St. returns its entire OL, which is something I look for in the early weeks. The bad news here is that Fredi Knighten is gone from last year’s team, and the Red Wolves have a new OC. Knighten is replaced by Oklahoma transfer Justice Hansen and grad transfer (from Pitt) Chad Voytik. HC Blake Anderson has already announced that both guys will play this week, with Voytik named the starter. Voytik started 13 games for Pitt in 2014, completing 62% of his passes and throwing for 17 TDs to 8 INTs. Leading rusher Michael Gordon is gone, but Arky St. returns its #2 and #3 RBs from last year and adds JUCO Armond Weh-Weh, who rushed for 1229 yards (11 TDs) last season at Scottsdale Community College. The new OC, which isn’t exactly ideal for an over, is Buster Faulkner. He comes over from MTSU, who ran a similar tempo last season (77.1 plays per game also), while averaging 34 points per game. I like the OL continuity here, as well as the experienced QBs, which should help offset the turnover at RB and WR – where the Red Wolves add transfers from Texas and TCU.
Toledo Defense – One reason I’m not terribly concerned with some of the turnover on the Arkansas St. offense is the fact that the Toledo defense, which was 12th nationally in YPPT last year, returns just 3 starters. In particular, the Rockets return just one starter from each level of the defense, so these guys will be getting to know each other against an uptempo offensive unit. There is also turnover with the coaches at Toledo. Specifically, they have a new DC in Brian George, who comes over from a Kent St. defense that allowed 26.1 ppg last season and 13.5 YPPT (#94).
Toledo Offense – You have to start here with Kareem Hunt. Hunt missed 4 games last season and still ran for 973 yards. (Terry Swanson was no slouch in Hunt’s absence. He ran for 931 yds in just 143 carries.) The Rockets return 4 of 5 starters from the OL that Hunt and Swanson ran behind last season. Toledo also returns 4 of its 5 top receivers from last season. There is change at the QB position, but projected starter Logan Woodside started 10 games in 2014 (2,263 yds, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) before Phillip Ely transferred in from ‘Bama last season for one year of duty. The Rockets have a new HC, but I don’t look for that to disrupt the offense much, as former OC Jason Candle is now at the helm. Toledo averaged 35 points and 75.5 plays per game last season.
Arkansas St. Defense – The Red Wolves’ defensive losses aren’t as dramatic as Toledo’s, but this is a unit that allowed 419.3 ypg last season (#41) playing in the Sun Belt. The LB core looks solid, but Arky St. loses 1st team all-conference players on the DL and in the secondary. Arky St. looks to cause turnovers, but Toledo allowed just 1.2 turnovers per game last season (#21).
Recent meetings – Last season Toledo won this game 37-7 in a game where Arkansas St. had TOs (averaged 2.1 on the season). Knighten was injured for that game. Two years ago these two met in the GoDaddy Bowl and played to a score of 63-44. (Massey 69, Dunkel 70, Steele 65, PW 65, Powers 65, GS 72)