[CappinTerp]

Why is this line so high, to me, with the pitching match ups and teams,would have figured a pick'em at best. Anyone out there have an idea as to why??? Maeda -130 over Leake and Cards at Bush ????

[Nateboogy]

Leake sucks.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I posted my thoughts on LT's thread. I'm probably gonna get trainwrecked here, but I just don't get it. The Dodgers' pen has pitched 12.2 innings in the last two days (not counting Norris' innings last night). Maeda hasn't had a lot of success getting deep into games (averaging less than 6 IP and has 8 starts where he went 5 or less innings). And when he gets deep, he has struggled. Here are a couple of splits:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
1st PA in G as SP	19	171	154	12	28	6	0	3	0	0	13	47	3.62	0.182	0.257	0.279	0.537	43	2	3	0	1	0	0	0.238	70
2nd PA in G as SP	19	171	158	12	31	3	0	5	0	0	12	48	4	0.196	0.257	0.31	0.567	49	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.248	79
3rd PA in G as SP	17	94	86	14	29	5	1	3	0	1	7	17	2.43	0.337	0.394	0.523	0.917	45	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.394	188
4th+ PA in G as SP	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	536

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
1st inning	19	19	6	2.84	76	67	7	13	4	0	1	1	0	6	19	3.17	0.194	0.276	0.299	0.575	20	1	2	0	1	0	0	0.25	82
2nd inning	19	19	3	1.42	74	66	3	10	1	0	1	2	0	7	16	2.29	0.152	0.243	0.212	0.455	14	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.184	46
3rd inning	19	19	8	3.79	75	71	8	16	3	0	3	0	0	4	22	5.5	0.225	0.267	0.394	0.661	28	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.283	107
4th inning	19	19	1	0.47	71	66	1	10	0	0	1	1	0	5	25	5	0.152	0.211	0.197	0.408	13	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.225	30
5th inning	18	16.1	12	6.61	71	62	13	17	2	1	3	3	1	8	13	1.63	0.274	0.366	0.484	0.85	30	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.304	167
6th inning	14	11.1	5	3.97	50	47	5	15	3	0	2	0	0	2	13	6.5	0.319	0.36	0.511	0.871	24	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.406	173
7th inning	7	4.1	4	8.31	20	20	2	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	4		0.4	0.4	0.45	0.85	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	169

On the other side, Leake has 21 Ks and 0 BBs in his last two starts, and the Dodger regulars haven't had much success against him historically (except Turner). Add in the fact that the Cards are 6-2 since the break, while the Dodgers are 3-5, and I'm backing the Cards at +$.

Best of luck!

[CappinTerp]

Leake sucks.

Yea,not great...but coming around.Last 3 starts 3.32 ERA, start on 7/18: 11K's and no walks.Start on 7/10: 10 K's and no walks!! Cards got a little mo,winning 5 str. I got to dig deeper...there is a play here, but don't know if it is LAD or ST.LOU.?

[jjgold]

these games just guesses

pick out of hat


their is no theory here

[CappinTerp]

Good post HeeluvaGuy!!!!!!!

[klemopixx]

Cards batting .239 last 7 games but they're 6-1

This line is telling me something. Maybe the Cards will put the "Sunday lineup" out a day early?

[Brock Landers]

Leake sucks.

He does?

Putting up #'s not seen since Bob Gibson, but he "sucks"

[jjgold]

Cards batting .239 last 7 games but they're 6-1

This line is telling me something. Maybe the Cards will put the "Sunday lineup" out a day early?

its why stats mean nothing..losers look at stats and winners study only lines at 15 books

[HeeluvaGuy]

Good post HeeluvaGuy!!!!!!!

I like my losses to be well-researched.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Cards batting .239 last 7 games but they're 6-1

This line is telling me something. Maybe the Cards will put the "Sunday lineup" out a day early?

Theyre averaging 5 rpg over that span. The Cards are tied for second in the MLB in hits per run (1.74).

[CappinTerp]

Cards batting .239 last 7 games but they're 6-1

This line is telling me something. Maybe the Cards will put the "Sunday lineup" out a day early?

Yea, I know what you mean....but if this line stays around -125 to -130....Dodgers are the play!! No "free lunch" in Vegas,they know more then me....they are pricing this for a reason!........worth a small play.

[CappinTerp]

its why stats mean nothing..losers look at stats and winners study only lines at 15 books

Right on JJ...stats are worthless, books run the #'s over and over,make ratio's,ect And all that is reflected in the price of the game.

[RavensFan2k3]

its why stats mean nothing..losers look at stats and winners study only lines at 15 books

Right on JJ...stats are worthless, books run the #'s over and over,make ratio's,ect And all that is reflected in the price of the game.

100% true

[CappinTerp]

Somehow the books thought that there was a high probability that Leake would have an " off night" !! But no big deal,there will be many other opportunities.

[jjgold]

Like I said these games are so difficult to handicap you just try your best

[HeeluvaGuy]

Somehow the books thought that there was a high probability that Leake would have an " off night" !! But no big deal,there will be many other opportunities.

Didnt help that the Cards couldn't score. Get 'em next time.

[habitualwinning]

Do you guys pay attention or just pick random games and fire on them? Anybody that follows the Cardinals this year knows it has been a disappointing year. No consistency and they've been flat out bad at Busch this season, aside from the last handful of games. They've been hovering in the 6-10 games under .500 mark at home all year up until the recent hot streak the past week or so. Leake is the Cards 5th starter. If Matheny needed to win 1 game he'd throw Wainwright, Martinez, Garcia or Wacha over Leake. Line made perfect sense. It opened around pk and the public moved it up into the -130 range. Cards should've lost last night, got a lucky extra innings win after a blown save by Jansen. Everybody was chasing plus banking on the Cards to revert back to losing at home, like they've done all season long.

[keel44]

The line is because of the poor home record for the Cards. Dodgers are one those over-valued teams like Boston and the Yankees also.

If you look at the Cards lineup, there are a lot of young non-nationally hyped players.

[CappinTerp]

The line is because of the poor home record for the Cards. Dodgers are one those over-valued teams like Boston and the Yankees also.

If you look at the Cards lineup, there are a lot of young non-nationally hyped players.

Not the way I see it! That line was suspiciously high......and when lines are like that to the high or low side,it's telling me something.....just pissed I did not bet LAD -1, -115....i passed on this game......there will be others.................................. BOL