[EaglesPhan36]

College ball has been an excellent source of $$ for me during the regionals and super regionals. The College World Series might be a bit tougher to cap, but there should be opportunity to make a profit. I'll update this thread each day with the match-ups and lines for anyone who is interested.

Two games to kick it off Friday. Lines won't be out until tomorrow morning I would imagine. I'll do the 2nd write-up for Friday here in a little bit.

Louisville vs. Rice: 1pm ET

U of L advanced to Omaha with Sunday's impressive 20-2 victory over Oklahoma State in the third and decisive game of the Super Regional. Prior to that, the Cards advanced through the Columbia (Mo.) Regional with back-to-back wins over No. 1 seeded Missouri. Rice returns to Omaha for the second consecutive year and the fourth time in the last six years after winning all five of its game in the 2007 NCAA tournament. The Owls won the 2003 College World Series championship, the school's first NCAA team title in any sport.

Analysis:

*Louisville has been one of the big suprises to get this far and their reward is to play the team that many believe to be the best in the country. The Cards have two excellent pitchers in Zach Pitts & Justin Marks to lead their rotation. I would expect Pitts (10-3, 2.23 ERA) to get the starting nod on Friday. He blanked OSU in the super regionals in a 9-0 Cards win & was the Big East pitcher of the year. Their offense is better than many thought with the team scoring an amazing 31 runs in their three super regional games. They've got great speed atop their lineup and some good pop in the middle.


*For Rice, they're on a major roll having won all of their post-season games in '07 to date. They breezed through their regional and then eeked out a come from behind win against A&M in Game 1 of their super regional before slamming the door shut on A&M in Game 2, 5-1. Rice has an amazing array of arms to go to in Omaha. The starters are led by Joe Savery (10-1, 2/78 ERA) and Ryan Berry (11-2, 2.71 ERA). Either could start on Friday, but I'd say Savery gets the nod. The Rice pitching staff has only yielded 8 runs in the regionals and super regionals combined. Offensively the team is balanced with Savery leading the way in avg. and RBIs. They won't put up the eye popping double digit runs that some teams do, but they execute well and seem to have a knack for clutch hitting.

The Line/Pick: I expect Rice to be a heavy favorite when the line comes out for this one. If it's below -260, I would be shocked & probably more than willing to swallow that price. Despite Louisville's play in the past 2 rounds, Rice is the team to beat and they'll likely get the heavy fave price in every game they play in Omaha. With Pitts pitching, Louisville should stay in this game - but the feeling is that Rice's experience will carry them to a close win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mississippi St. vs. North Carolina: 7pm ET

Miss. State has definitely made their presence known in the NCAA Tournament. MSU went to Tallahassee as the second seed in the regional and defeated No. 6 national seed Florida State, twice, shutting out the hot-hitting Seminoles, 3-0, and handing FSU ace Bryan Henry his second loss of the season. The Bulldogs followed it up by hitting .324 against Clemson in the Super Regional, sweeping the Tigers in two games, and earning their first appearance in the Men’s College World Series since 1998.

North Carolina has advanced to the College World Series in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history. They are winners of 21 of their last 25 games. UNC swept through the Chapel Hill Regional field before taking two of three from South Carolina last weekend to move on to the CWS. The Tar Heels are 10-1 in regional and super regional action over the last two seasons and are 14-3 overall in NCAA play in 2006-07.

Analysis:

*Mississippi State is another surprise team to be in Omaha. They benefited greatly from playing at home in the Super Regionals, but also proved in the regionals by beating FSU that they can win anywhere against anyone. The suprising thing to me was the way their offense has manhandled some pretty solid opponents. Brandon Turner is the top dog with a .397 avg while Edward Easley hit 12 HRs to lead in the power department. Pitching is led by Justin Pigott who shut down Florida State and pitched well vs. Clemson. Aaron Weatherford gives MSU a great option to close out games.

*North Carolina's m.o. in the post season has been the ability to pull of stunning comebacks after falling behind. They did it in the regionals scoring twice in the 9th inning in the championship game and they did it twice vs. South Carolina in the super regionals. From an offensive standpoint, this might be the most talented team in Omaha because of that ability and the balance from top to bottom. Pitching will be the key to how far UNC goes. The starters struggled against SC, but the pen picked them up. Robert Woodard is likely to start Friday (10-2, 3.01. ERA). Luke Putkonen and Alex White are the other starters and are not nearly as effective. The bullpen is lead by innings eater Rob Wooten and dynamic closer Andrew Carignan who went four innings in the finale vs. SC to seal the UNC win.

The Line/Pick: Like our first match-up, I believe there will be a heavy favorite tag hung on North Carolina for this game. It'll be interesting to see how much the oddsmakers believe in MSU after their big wins in the previous rounds. I would expect this game to feature quite a bit of offense from both squads. At the end of the day, UNC's experience of having been in Omaha before and their coolness under pressure/ability to rally should carry them to victory.

[bigboydan]

MSU has had a very good team these past couple of years really Mr.Eagles. I'm personally going to be passing on this game myself, but if I were to play it at all, I would take my chances with MSU here.

[BigBollocks]

Thanks for the write-ups Eagles, looking forward to reading them throughout the CWS. I can't lay the juice between Rice and Louisville. Mississippi State's been an ACC killer this postseason, so I'm staying away from that one also. My two official plays today are both no plays for now, although I might go MSU for small stakes later...

[EaglesPhan36]

Lines according to Pinnacle:

Louisville +273/Rice -303
MSU +232/UNC -252

I'll be interested to see where the action goes once these lines hit the other books. I would imagine alot of people who just bet to bet will take the underdog prices. Can't imagine Rice getting anything better than -290 or UNC getting better than -240.

[EaglesPhan36]

Just an update again based on Pinnacle #s:

Louisville +265/Rice -285
MSU & UNC remain the same

I'm a bit surprised that Rice dropped that large despite just a modest drop for the Louisville price.

[bigboydan]

I'm not surprised that line dropped the way it did Mr.Eagles. Last year at Pinnacle that always seemed to happen there.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll post my lines from BetJam as soon as they come up. Hoping for a little less on both Rice & UNC.

[bigboydan]

I don't know if you will see less Mr.Eagles. BetJM is not exactly thegreek or pinnacle for that matter.

[EaglesPhan36]

The BetJam lines:

Louisville +250/Rice -300
MSU +225/UNC -265

Not sure what I'll do with the first game. I believe Rice will win, but I think if Louisville is going to win a game in the CWS it would be this first one with their best pitcher going. MSU is probably the only way to play the late game unless the price comes down for UNC.

[EaglesPhan36]

Holy shit. Alot of late action on Rice. So I'm gonna say what the F and put a half unit down on Louisville at +310. Rice up to -380.

Game starts in about 20 mins for anyone interested on ESPN2.

[Crayzee]

5-0 louis right now!!
too early to get giddy though

[onlooker]

5-0 louis right now!!
too early to get giddy though

Its 5-4 with runners on the corners for Rice.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is so not the game I expected from these two teams. 10-7 in the 6th. I expected the pitching to dominate. I didn't expect to see anyone scoring 10 or more off the Rice pitchers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Louisville teased us for awhile, but the superior team came through in the end with a 15-10 win. I'd have to say that if Rice's offense has finally awoken, this team is gonna be tough to beat in the CWS because their pitching will be better.

Still debating whether or not to play the MSU-UNC game. The line is stuck at MSU +225/UNC -265. That's really a fringe one for me. I like UNC alot because of their experience, but if MSU got a little more bite on the price - I'd probably do a small wager like I did on Louisville.

[EaglesPhan36]

North Carolina is doing it again tonight - coming from behind and on their way to a win. I'll say it again - NO LEAD IS SAFE with this team. If UNC can get some consistent starting pitching in Omaha, I think they're gonna win it all. Faves today showed again how valuable experience is at the CWS. Remember that if you're betting this sucker. I'll have a couple write-ups for SAT's games in a bit.

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY, JUNE 16
UC-Irvine (+193) vs. Arizona State (-211): 1pm ET

Analysis:

*UC Irvine will be making their first ever appearance at the College World Series in OMAHA. In FACT, UC-Irvine did not have a division 1 program up until 2002. UC-Irvine disbanded their baseball program in 1992. This is another feel-good story like Louisville. But feeling good doesn't usually equal success in the CWS, experience does and UCI obviously has none. This is a team built on pitching and defense. Their pitching almost single handedly won the Super Regional against Wichita State with starters Scott Gorgen and Wes Etheridge leading the way. Gorgen has pitched an astounding 4 straight complete games. The pitchers are anchored by closer Scott Erickson who had 13 saves. This team DOES NOT make errors in the infield. Offensively, they'll have to small ball teams because they lack any huge pop. Cody Cipriano is the leader with 12 dingers, 57 RBI and a .338 avg. Speed is where they have an advantage, they will RUN RUN RUN on the base paths. 137 steals and they love to bunt runners over.

*Arizona State didn't have to leave home in the regionals or super regionals. ASU swept the regionals in 3 dominant games and then dispatched Ole Miss in 2 in the supers. The Sun Devils have the best offense in the country. Nine players are hitting over .327. Brett Wallace leads the team with a batting average of .423 and in homers with 16 on the year. Pitching is what will make or break ASU's dreams of a national title. The starters are led by Josh Satow who was 13-3 with a 2.41 ERA. The defense for ASU led the country in fielding percentage so we should see some gems in this game from both defenses.

The Pick: It's a classic offense vs. defense match-up here. UCI's Gorgen (likely starter) will have to be as good if not better than he has been in the post-season to keep the Sun Devils in check. If ASU gets to Gorgen early, the Sun Devils should win this rather easily. For ASU, if their pitching keeps the other team down, they'll expect to win every game they play in Omaha and very likely could.

Experience will be a factor here with UCI having the most to prove in that light. ASU is back in the CWS for the first time since '05 with just a handful of players on the roster who might remember Omaha from that chance. In the CWS, seems that great offense beats great pitching and that's why I'll take ...

ASU -211
*This is an excellent price to get for one of the faves in these games*

[bigboydan]

I'm going against you on this one Mr.Eagles. I'm taking my chances with Irvine in this game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Right now, I think I am going to pass the first game. ASU is at -240 now and that's in that super gray area for me as to how much I would lay on a fave in college ball. Unfortunately my lines at BetJam didn't come out until this morning so I couldn't get the price closer to -210 or -220. Gonna save up and shoot for the night game. Oregon St vs. Cal-St. Fullerton. Should be good & a write-up will be coming up shortly.

[AJ]

I go to Fullerton and played baseball as well so i still have a few contacts... i sent my buddy clark a text asking what he thought about todays game last nite and responded with this, this morning " if our pitching holds up and i sack up, there's no stoping us" i think he basically summed up the game right there... there pitching has not really been tested and they will need to bring their A game if they wanna make it past oregon st. i like fullerton in todays game... proven program, coach knows his stuff... and they figure out ways to win... we shall see what happens...

AJ

[bigboydan]

Welcome to the SBR forum AJ

[AJ]

Welcome to the SBR forum AJ

THANKS!

807 Oregon State -105

808 Cal State - Fullerton -115

Did i mention i like my titans! hahaha.....

AJ

[EaglesPhan36]

Oregon St. (-105) vs. Cal-St. Fullerton (-115): 7pm ET

Analysis"

*Defending national champion Oregon State is back in Omaha a bit unexpected by many. This marks 3 straight CWS trips for OSU. The Beavers struggled late in the season and finished 6th in the PAC-10, but have played their best ball in the regionals and super regionals. They beat a team in Virginia in the regionals that many thought would be in Omaha and then despite a struggle in Game 1 where they were no-hit for 8 2/3 innings by Michigan, the Beavers found a way to win and KO'ed Michigan in 2 games. Pitching has come up clutch lately for the Beavers with experienced CWS players in Mike Stutts, Daniel Thurpen and Joe Patterson. Throw in clutch closer Eddie Kunz and OSU has enough pitching I believe to be a threat. Defensively, they're solid. Only 55 errors all year long. Where OSU will live & die in the CWS is their offense. The team BA of .282 is relatively low for a college team, so they'll have to find more consistency from the likes of Mike Lissman, Jordan Lennerton and Mitch Canham. OSU will have an experience edge from its players who have been here before, not to mention this team has won 9 straight elimination games.

*Cal-St. Fullerton is another club that is hard to figure out just how they got here. They didn't have a great regular season, but found their way into the post season. They did not play the top seed in San Diego in their regional, instead KO'ing Fresno State and then dispatched of UCLA in 2 games in the super regional. Defense and pitching are the best attributes of this club. Wes Roemer and Jeff Kaplan are the top dogs in the starting rotation and capable of carrying their team deep into a game every time they step on the mound. To me, offense figures to be the biggest plus or minus for the Titans if they wish to advance in Omaha. They struggled during the regular season, but turned it on in the regionals and super regionals. They've hit close to 50 points higher in the post season than they did all during the regular season. A perfect example is Evan MacArthur who leads the Titans with a .450 BA and 7 RBIs in the post season after batting a dismal .241 during the regular season. Clark Hardman had a big super regional, 4 for 9 and is leading the team with a .391 average. The Titans will have to be consistent on offense to have a shot.

The Pick: This is easily the hardest game to pick so far in the CWS. These teams almost mirror each other in strengths and weaknesses. Experience will help OSU, but Fullerton coach George Horton has been in the CWS enough to know what needs to be done to advance. At the end of the day, the team that finds its offense will win this one. Who will that be? Your guess is as good as mine. My advice is to take the team with the best price at game time.

My lean right now is to Oregon State because of the experience edge, but this is really a coin flip game.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm going against you on this one Mr.Eagles. I'm taking my chances with Irvine in this game.

Sorry bout that one for ya Dan. Since I didn't bet on this one, I was pullin' for ya. UCI did better than I thought they would, but ASU just had too much offense today. 3 dingers.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bit surprised here, but OSU going with the freshman Jorge Reyes in Game 1 vs. Wes Roemer for CSF. Reyes has been great in the post season though, 1-0 1.38 ERA in 2 starts. Leaves Patterson to come out of the pen early I believe if Reyes struggles. Roemer is a stud. Should be a good pitcher's duel, but then again I thought that in the Louisville-Rice game yesterday and they scored 25 runs!

Sticking with my words in the write-up. OSU +100

[AJ]

Bit surprised here, but OSU going with the freshman Jorge Reyes in Game 1 vs. Wes Roemer for CSF. Reyes has been great in the post season though, 1-0 1.38 ERA in 2 starts. Leaves Patterson to come out of the pen early I believe if Reyes struggles. Roemer is a stud. Should be a good pitcher's duel, but then again I thought that in the Louisville-Rice game yesterday and they scored 25 runs!

Sticking with my words in the write-up. OSU +100

Being a fullerton student and all... i took Fullerton -125.... watch for my buddy clark.... he should be leading off...

AJ

[AJ]

Roemer's settling down now.... looking good if we can get some runs....

AJ

[EaglesPhan36]

OSU wins 3-2. They tried to give it away in the 9th with that error, but hung on. Two good games on tap for Sunday.

Elimination Game: Lousiville (+151) vs. Mississippi St. (-159) (2pm ET)
Winner's Bracket: UNC (+161) vs. Rice (-169) (7pm ET)

*Tremendous value I think for both underdogs on Sunday. That's the best price you'll get a team like Carolina at in the CWS. I'll post pitching match-ups later if/when I find them.

[EaglesPhan36]

Louisville
LHP Justin Marks 8-2, 2.54 ERA
*Marks held Oklahoma State in the Super Regionals to one hit and one run in 6.1 innings, while striking out five batters.

Mississippi St.
RHP Chad Crosswhite 8-4 4.24 ERA
*Crosswhite in his last game vs. Clemson went five innings giving up four hits, four runs (three earned), while walking two and striking out five.

All the value lies with Louisville in this game for me. They have the better starter and their offense should have alot of confidence with the way they plastered Rice in the opener to the tune of 10 runs against probably the best pitching staff in Omaha. I think whichever team gets a better performance from their starter will win this one. I'm going with the Cards and the plus odds.

[Razz]

Yeah, I think MSU will win today, but the number is high. -130 or so would make a lot more sense. I'm glad to see you're interested in UNC, that number is outrageous IMO.

[bigboydan]

I too like Miss St. today Mr.Eagles.

[BuddyBear]

The other day Kenny White was on the radio and said that Louisville is by far the worst of the 8 teams left....take that for what it is worth, considering he's the sharpest guy out there.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't agree with that assessment at all. Oregon State and Cal-State Fullerton have far less complete teams than Louisville. The Cards are showing a powerful offense so far in these 1st two games (also in the regionals/supers) & their top 2 pitchers can match up with most in the CWS.

Here's tonight's probables:

Rice
Joe Savery 10-1, 2.78 ERA
*Savery is a two-way star. He leads Rice with a .361 avg. and homered in the Owls comeback win vs. Louisville. He has not pitched since the Owls regional victory over TCU on June 3rd when he gave up just one run in 7 innings.

North Carolina
Alex White 6-5, 4.22 ERA
*White is a freshman and was only around for 3 1/3 innings in his last start vs. South Carolina in the Super Regionals. He also got pounded vs. East Carolina in the regionals.

On paper, the pitching match-up heavily favors Rice. If you're betting on UNC like me, you'll hope the layoff for Savery might make him a little rusty. When you look at the price for this game with Rice at -170 and UNC at +150, I think the play is clearly with the Tar Heels. They've shown the ability to come back from huge deficits and there is no lead safe with this team. Rice also has to prove that it's offense is more of what we saw in the Louisville game rather than the one that struggled to put up runs in the regionals and super regionals. If White can eat up 5 innings and have the Heels close, I think UNC can take this one. Don't fret if the Heels are down into the middle innings, they really get cookin' in the 6th.

[BuddyBear]

Nice call on Louisville if you took them...

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I didn't go all in, 3/4 of a unit but hey a win is a win. Probably gonna go the full unit for NC and then watch Rice stomp 'em.