[TechnicalTrader]

I figured I'd create this thread because I see a lot of people in here making the same mistakes many day traders or novice, retail traders make. If you already think you are the shit or are the shit, feel free to leave. For those who want to learn something about the parrallels of trading FX and what you do here, enjoy!

1) You shouldn't be trying to beat or "kill" the bookie or sportsbook. It's a waste of time and exactly what the market want's you to do/think. Just like in the FX or any other market, your competition is not the market, it is not the market maker, it is not the bank/broker you trade through it is the guy sitting next to you, the person above you in this thread, it is me... The sporstbook makes it money off of juice and does it best to keep equal money on both sides of the "trade" or bet.

2) Emotions will kill you. If you can't place a bet, walk away from it and not care about it until it settles you are not going to make money. Create a stratagie and stick with it. Period. Backtest it, front test it, go live with a small porion of your bankroll or paper bet, build confidence, then attack the market. Too many of you guys get upset about walk off homers, underperforming batters, injured pitchers, etc. Just stick to the plan, shit will happen.

3) Manage your bankroll. Betting anything more than 10% of your BR on any given bet will destroy you. I try not to surpass 2-5%. Do you think hedge fund managers or people like Warren Buffett risk 10% of their portfolio on one position? Well, you shouldn't either.

4) Find out what you love, what you do the best and bet on that. Why bet on South American Soccer if you know nothing about it?? Seriously, why?

I love baseball, have played it for almost three decades and consider myself th ebiggest scholar of the game! You should too!

I'll add some more later, if anyone is interested.

Oh, good luck to nobody out there. if you are depending on luck, you are the person I will be taking money from. Do your homework and make wise bets!

Later,
TT

[Mike Huntertz]

Some good points.....maybe I should short my picks? lol
I would enjoy more.

[thekoreanmang]

Great points for both real life and degen life investing.

[TechnicalTrader]

Here's another one which I've had to deal with on the diamond every single season. Something so simple but so difficult to master, something that kicks me in the ass at least once every damn season, catches me at work and also trading/betting....

Never ever get over confident and never ever keep your head hanging!

So hard to stay humble when you are killing it at work, on the boards, at the plate or even behind the plate (yeah, I'm a catcher).Alos extremely difficult to not let bad AB's affect your defense, a string of good trades not force you in togetting too aggresive or a slumping betting streak from keeping you from not following your strategy.

Master this and you will master your trade. Clemens, Nolan, Ricky, Ruth, Rose, Jordan, Byrd, the list goes on.

Think about riding a bike. You've perfected the art of balancebut your not doing any backflips and celebrating like an idiot every time you get on that bike and you sure as helldon't fallin to a deep depresion when you fall on your ass....

[CappinTerp]

Whatever you many speculate on,do you favor the fundamentals or technical's ?

[TechnicalTrader]

I favor technicals but judge based off of fundamentals.

I've worked for a large bank in the past and understand howone works, so when I'm in the FX market I don't really feel lost. Baseball has been part of my life forever. I've picked teh brain of people like Kevin Seitzer or some of TB's top scouts so the feel for the game has never been an issue for me.

I like to crunch numbers first, study the line and then sit back and ask myself if it makes sense. If my system is telling me to take LAD while Kershaw is piching but Vegas is raping everyone with a bullshit line, I'll lay off of it. Why should I? It's my money and if I'm not getting my price, I'm not touching it.

I hope this helps...

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm not sure where you're going with this thread, but I enjoy discussions like this.

I agree with you about the need to be consistent. I think it's nearly impossible to find out what works and what doesn't without using a consistent, preferably repeatable, strategy.

I disagree to some extent about sticking only to what you know. The reason is that I think you can eliminate the emotions and biases when you step out into a sport/region/etc. that you're not familiar with.

Just a couple of thoughts. Look forward to seeing where this goes...

[TechnicalTrader]

I'm not sure where you're going with this thread, but I enjoy discussions like this.

I agree with you about the need to be consistent. I think it's nearly impossible to find out what works and what doesn't without using a consistent, preferably repeatable, strategy.

I disagree to some extent about sticking only to what you know. The reason is that I think you can eliminate the emotions and biases when you step out into a sport/region/etc. that you're not familiar with.

Just a couple of thoughts. Look forward to seeing where this goes...

That's a great point regarding emotions and a decent way to keep them in check. I guess I'd rather just avoid conflict but I see where you are going with this. Great post!

[thekoreanmang]

I favor technicals but judge based off of fundamentals.

I've worked for a large bank in the past and understand howone works, so when I'm in the FX market I don't really feel lost. Baseball has been part of my life forever. I've picked teh brain of people like Kevin Seitzer or some of TB's top scouts so the feel for the game has never been an issue for me.

I like to crunch numbers first, study the line and then sit back and ask myself if it makes sense. If my system is telling me to take LAD while Kershaw is piching but Vegas is raping everyone with a bullshit line, I'll lay off of it. Why should I? It's my money and if I'm not getting my price, I'm not touching it.

I hope this helps...

How do you know Vegas is raping everyone when a public favorite pitcher is up and the line is bad? Do you go based off public betting trends (e.g., VegasInsider.com)?

[TechnicalTrader]

How do you know Vegas is raping everyone when a public favorite pitcher is up and the line is bad? Do you go based off public betting trends (e.g., VegasInsider.com)?

Nah, just bases off of what I think the line should be I guess.... Judgement, nothing fundamental.

Just like the O 0.5 line I'm getting on that ARZ/COL game. Vegas (or at least bet365 is being aprick right now...)

[CappinTerp]

A price on a game, is the price. Vegas not being a prick or any other book for that matter.Buy,sell or pass. Go long,short or pass.

[TechnicalTrader]

A price on a game, is the price. Vegas not being a prick or any other book for that matter.Buy,sell or pass. Go long,short or pass.

I agree, I agree. Let me rephrase that "The market is providing a crappy line". My bad.

[chaka]

A price on a game, is the price. Vegas not being a prick or any other book for that matter.Buy,sell or pass. Go long,short or pass.

Cubs laying -400 when should be -230 or -290 is what he means. Unsuspecting player still plays Cubs Rest pass