[TechnicalTrader]

Would it be a good idea if you keep a stats of your signals record? Ex: Strong
3-1
Mixed to strong
1-2

Etc....

That is asking for a lot. Please don't forget, I put about 2 to 4 hours of research in the daily matchups. Posting in here is time consuming and dealing with some of the people in here takes away a crapload of my time also. If you'd like to track it and confirm the performance of each category, please feel free to.

[TechnicalTrader]

double post

[kaliboyz]

I'm OK with whatever you do. I saw people asking for it, so I was just giving my opinion. Keep up the good work bud! Thanks

[chaka]

My man, you're back! Sorry about the disspointing evening. Looks like you were right, I sure as hell might just go 8 for 8 one night. LMAO!! Anyway, I'll drop my %BR just to do you a favor.

And please excuse my mistake, you are correct the RoI should be profit. Speaking of profit, how was your day? I'd love to hear about your performance because you sound like the next Billy Walters in here.

ROI calculated the proper way is profit/risk not profit/partial unrisked bankroll.

risked $ 1039 returned 1585.61 net $ 546.61 52.61% for me yesterday
nyy RL + 108 Loss
Cin -123 win
Chi +140 loss
CWS -133 win
tb/balt 07 -107 win
tex -122 win
sf ml -230 win
st l +107 ml col -1.5 +132 win


Attachment 90554

sportsbetting ROI isnt like the stock market buying a position for $ 700 holding and cashing out at a later date like you are calculating
you are risking every day more and more and eventually your true total investment is 10x 20x +++ your initial bankroll and the ROI

gets smaller and smaller which is why guys with a hot highly volatile system disappear after a while because laying -190,-170 regularly reflects a very small % ROI and eats them up when the ineveitable losing streak comes...which it did in VR's thread and everyone tailing dropped 10 units or so in one day

most of the followers just want winners but they should also understand the risk/reward.. i explained how they could still benefit by risking less and potentially grossing more before the bad day.. those who followed would have lost little over 4 units less than those who played as posted.. Now VR has done extremely well over past year and a half but his results could be better with better risk management

as killawookie said we've seen this come and go and it ends the same every time...especially when it comes to risking large chunks of BR

you had a high win pct day so did i -neither is sustainable

difference is my avg lay price the way i play requires no where near the win pct on your prop plays to break even...unlike full games no way to reduce juice on a prop unless you parlay a pair but wouldn't recommend that on 1st inning o/u prop


by not taking player past performances into consideration is foolish
-which brings up another point how complicated can your algorithm be if no past performances are used?
basically current form and matchups mean nothing in your formula?
.if the top three batters in an order are struggling and facing a pitcher who owns them- its probably something to factor when they are likely the only people to bat in that inning..

if you want to beat this game you need to use everything at your disposal not just your proclaimed intricate knowledge of the game and the fact you played it.... apparently the signal indicators are gut,game feelers from other posters and line movement

there a stats out there on pitchers who struggle in the first inning (Nola for one),pitchers who are awesome first time thru the order and progressively get worse or vice versa-

the fact you dont see a difference between risking the same on a prop bet vs full game should open peoples eyes..you probably dont see a difference because of the $$$ amount actually risked on the props $ 20-40
but lets bump to $ 500 or $ 1000
you still gonna be risking $ 700 to win $ 500 on that yankee/twins 1st inning over or $ 1750 to win $ 1000 on the ari/col over?

the first inning took what 15 pitches to lose in NY? how many of those losses are you going to take before it sinks in theres a difference between a full game and prop bet
sure batista (tor)will open a game or two with a bomb once in a while but lets see how strong those signals are with some serious coin on the line

fwiw- the yankees game had many things indicating high enough probability of an early run.. twins p ready to be sent down in poor form & giving up .311 avg to lefties facing a yankee lineup with 8 lefties and gopher man euvaldi on mound for ny..game total projection 9.5

even though that play lost for you it was still the right play imo..
true ny bats had been all or nothing past week but generally recipe for breaking slumps is a meatballer on the mound which there was for each team... it just happened that was the game the kid had a no no thru 6.

[brellis23]

What's your overall record for this thread so far? Best of luck with your picks today

[TechnicalTrader]

What's your overall record for this thread so far? Best of luck with your picks today

This thread is 13-5, overall I'm 41-16 but a few of those picks are les's so I'd say I'm about 31 and 13. Somewhere around there.

I spent about 1 hour crunching a ton of numbers for the TOR and KC games, if those both win my confidence level will be at an all time high. Really hoping to stick them two! Have you been following/trailing my picks?

[brellis23]

Wow, great work so far. I've been tailing Lep for the past 2 or 3 weeks so when I saw your thread on 1st inning wagers, I have been checking in every now and then. With that record I'll be following daily from now on, let's keep rolling man. Best of luck

[kaliboyz]

Which book is offer over/under 0.5? I followed you but I bet on yes/no score In first inning at heritage.

[TechnicalTrader]

Which book is offer over/under 0.5? I followed you but I bet on yes/no score In first inning at heritage.

Same thing.

Marathonbet and bet365 offer o/u 0.5

[thekoreanmang]

I'm on everything you put out today. Let's git it!

EDIT: Damn. Maybe I shouldn't have. 0-2 so far. It's okay. You win some then you lose some then hopefully win some more.

EDIT 2: 0-3. You lose some then you lose one more. Then you win the last 2?

[sammst3r]

Chaka -- you posting your plays anywhere?

ROI calculated the proper way is profit/risk not profit/partial unrisked bankroll.

risked $ 1039 returned 1585.61 net $ 546.61 52.61% for me yesterday
nyy RL + 108 Loss
Cin -123 win
Chi +140 loss
CWS -133 win
tb/balt 07 -107 win
tex -122 win
sf ml -230 win
st l +107 ml col -1.5 +132 win


Attachment 90554

sportsbetting ROI isnt like the stock market buying a position for $ 700 holding and cashing out at a later date like you are calculating
you are risking every day more and more and eventually your true total investment is 10x 20x +++ your initial bankroll and the ROI

gets smaller and smaller which is why guys with a hot highly volatile system disappear after a while because laying -190,-170 regularly reflects a very small % ROI and eats them up when the ineveitable losing streak comes...which it did in VR's thread and everyone tailing dropped 10 units or so in one day

most of the followers just want winners but they should also understand the risk/reward.. i explained how they could still benefit by risking less and potentially grossing more before the bad day.. those who followed would have lost little over 4 units less than those who played as posted.. Now VR has done extremely well over past year and a half but his results could be better with better risk management

as killawookie said we've seen this come and go and it ends the same every time...especially when it comes to risking large chunks of BR

you had a high win pct day so did i -neither is sustainable

difference is my avg lay price the way i play requires no where near the win pct on your prop plays to break even...unlike full games no way to reduce juice on a prop unless you parlay a pair but wouldn't recommend that on 1st inning o/u prop


by not taking player past performances into consideration is foolish
-which brings up another point how complicated can your algorithm be if no past performances are used?
basically current form and matchups mean nothing in your formula?
.if the top three batters in an order are struggling and facing a pitcher who owns them- its probably something to factor when they are likely the only people to bat in that inning..

if you want to beat this game you need to use everything at your disposal not just your proclaimed intricate knowledge of the game and the fact you played it.... apparently the signal indicators are gut,game feelers from other posters and line movement

there a stats out there on pitchers who struggle in the first inning (Nola for one),pitchers who are awesome first time thru the order and progressively get worse or vice versa-

the fact you dont see a difference between risking the same on a prop bet vs full game should open peoples eyes..you probably dont see a difference because of the $$$ amount actually risked on the props $ 20-40
but lets bump to $ 500 or $ 1000
you still gonna be risking $ 700 to win $ 500 on that yankee/twins 1st inning over or $ 1750 to win $ 1000 on the ari/col over?

the first inning took what 15 pitches to lose in NY? how many of those losses are you going to take before it sinks in theres a difference between a full game and prop bet
sure batista (tor)will open a game or two with a bomb once in a while but lets see how strong those signals are with some serious coin on the line

fwiw- the yankees game had many things indicating high enough probability of an early run.. twins p ready to be sent down in poor form & giving up .311 avg to lefties facing a yankee lineup with 8 lefties and gopher man euvaldi on mound for ny..game total projection 9.5

even though that play lost for you it was still the right play imo..
true ny bats had been all or nothing past week but generally recipe for breaking slumps is a meatballer on the mound which there was for each team... it just happened that was the game the kid had a no no thru 6.

[sammst3r]

Lmao, an 0-fer. Better luck tomorrow!

[thekoreanmang]

Damn. That sucked.

[TechnicalTrader]

Damn. That sucked.

Really, really sucked!!

0 for 5,i'llget the numbers up in a little bit and lookto bounce back tomorrow!

[chaka]

Chaka -- you posting your plays anywhere?

i am not sure if you are being sarcastic since I didn't post on forum or genuine..but books record plays which is why I attached the screenshot

Only Posted 4 totals in reapers thread..all won and played out almost exactly as my posted breakdown..
cubs pitt game had 19 walks and HBP and still went under 7... Ariz/ philly under with Greinke and another hot low whip pitcher was under by 3.5 runs.. Think it was next day top 4 sluggers sat and despite 4 runs in the first inning with two high era pitchers still stayed under by 3 runs... Last one I posted was last weekend yanks/twins over and expected evaldi to not make it past 5th likely few hrs allowed...expected Santana to not pitch well but he really did

i also told people to start backing off the Cubs right before their slide in that same thread

not always going to be like that ..I'm not frickin Houdini, but unlike majority here I explain why I back my plays in detail...no one does here ..it takes time. I get that

Generally I don't get my plays in til close to game time due to work (plus I like to see weather, lineups and pitcher/batter history)
so it doesn't benefit anyone and I've seen enough complaints towards others posting close to game time it's not worth the headache..
..weekends are exception..now I don't normally play as many games like yesterday but I didn't play them all right away in morning .. I played a few while analyzing next round...played couple more. Analyzed late games etc

My strength is analysis and while Mr trader was yakking it up having a good day yesterday...thinking it was unfathomable he could go Ofer
Karma and laws of probability (on an extremely volatile prop) reared their ugly head as it took only one more day to play out just as I told him his style eventually would...give it back twice as fast as winning it

0-5 -22% bankroll...leaves him hitting 56.5% and with less bankroll than he started.. Like I said we've seen this movie before and it never ends well

. Hopefully people finally realize to ignore hype...it's about bankroll preservation, money management and understanding how to reduce juice and find edges

normally i I don't play overnights but I did at 3 am this morning. Chi -1.5 130/100 clev -1.5 even and tor -129
So gonna be 2-1 today after Colorado turned 4-0 deficit into 9-4 route in 2 innings so will still net 3/4 unit

[TechnicalTrader]

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 13-10
Total RoI: -3.8%
Bankroll day 5: $673.66

Hit rate: 56.5%
After having one bad day, Chaka Khan, aka Mr. Buffett thinks he's got sh!t figured out. I've had one bad day and if this system can go 0 for 5, it sure as hell can go 5-5. I'm not saying it will today. Risking 4% per bet is not going to kill anyone.

I'll keep on posting, you keep on following

I've got two overs I'll post in a few minutes and possibly one under. Feel free to follow.

[TechnicalTrader]

Over 0.5

MIN/CWS risking 4% (semi strong signal)
STL/KC risking 4% (semi strong signal)
BAL/SD risking 5% (strong signal)

CLE/ATL is giving me mixed under signals but I am not 100% convinced yet. need to do more research.

[chaka]

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 13-10
Total RoI: -3.8%
Bankroll day 5: $673.66

Hit rate: 56.5%
After having one bad day, Chaka Khan, aka Mr. Buffett thinks he's got sh!t figured out. I've had one bad day and if this system can go 0 for 5, it sure as hell can go 5-5. I'm not saying it will today. Risking 4% per bet is not going to kill anyone.

I'll keep on posting, you keep on following

I've got two overs I'll post in a few minutes and possibly one under. Feel free to follow.

One bad day and it wiped out all your profit..yet you still can't see that's a problem ...all the winning says you've had ,hitting 56.5% and you are down money.... Now just like I said you are gonna have to win much higher percent to get back to where you were yesterday

are u betting 4% risk or to win 4%. Why don't you post odds of your plays? Guess That's too much work.plus if no one knows you can promote a high pct win rate...the reality is if you were betting to win 4% you're down even further than 22% BR but someone looking for a following doesn't want to show the truth just high win pct
its about profits not percentage but majority are just caught up with win pct...if you don't factor odds you can win 65% on -200 favs and be down money. How fun is that? Sounds good on a forum or by the water cooler though doesn't it?


you can chastise me all you want but you came in as the blowhard who had it all figured out wanting to be the hotshot of the forum after you saw LEP's success. " I just want to be like you" isn't that the quote to LEP?

..I just pointed out the obvious to anyone who knows basic math....you're results just Confirm it



I can help you manage risk for playing that many plays a day but I'm not sure you're willing to open to suggestion

[TechnicalTrader]

One bad day and it wiped out all your profit..yet you still can't see that's a problem ...all the winning says you've had ,hitting 56.5% and you are down money.... Now just like I said you are gonna have to win much higher percent to get back to where you were yesterday

are u betting 4% risk or to win 4%. Why don't you post odds of your plays? Guess That's too much work.plus if no one knows you can promote a high pct win rate...the reality is if you were betting to win 4% you're down even further than 22% BR but someone looking for a following doesn't want to show the truth just high win pct
its about profits not percentage but majority are just caught up with win pct...if you don't factor odds you can win 65% on -200 favs and be down money. How fun is that? Sounds good on a forum or by the water cooler though doesn't it?


you can chastise me all you want but you came in as the blowhard who had it all figured out wanting to be the hotshot of the forum after you saw LEP's success. " I just want to be like you" isn't that the quote to LEP?

..I just pointed out the obvious to anyone who knows basic math....you're results just Confirm it



I can help you manage risk for playing that many plays a day but I'm not sure you're willing to open to suggestion

man, you got some serious issues my man. One down day and you are acting like I loss my BR. For the 12th time, I am RISKING 4%. I usually get 78 cents to $1.10 on a dollar, average around 85 cents.

Again, one down day and look who's all loud now. LMAO!

[nick2060]

One bad day and it wiped out all your profit..yet you still can't see that's a problem ...all the winning says you've had ,hitting 56.5% and you are down money.... Now just like I said you are gonna have to win much higher percent to get back to where you were yesterday

are u betting 4% risk or to win 4%. Why don't you post odds of your plays? Guess That's too much work.plus if no one knows you can promote a high pct win rate...the reality is if you were betting to win 4% you're down even further than 22% BR but someone looking for a following doesn't want to show the truth just high win pct
its about profits not percentage but majority are just caught up with win pct...if you don't factor odds you can win 65% on -200 favs and be down money. How fun is that? Sounds good on a forum or by the water cooler though doesn't it?


you can chastise me all you want but you came in as the blowhard who had it all figured out wanting to be the hotshot of the forum after you saw LEP's success. " I just want to be like you" isn't that the quote to LEP?

..I just pointed out the obvious to anyone who knows basic math....you're results just Confirm it



I can help you manage risk for playing that many plays a day but I'm not sure you're willing to open to suggestion

What suggestions would you have for him? I'm genuinely curious.

I felt the 0-5 coming from a mile away and faded the plays. Not to say he'll continue losing but i'm always open to some new money management suggestions and you seem like you've got an idea about what you're doing.

[TechnicalTrader]

My unders for the day.

OAK/SF risking 4% (strong signal)
CHC/CIN risking 4% (strong signal)

Feel free to trail or fade me through the fire like Chaka.

[TechnicalTrader]

Working on a second system which only values SP's. let see how this performs. The backtests look decent, let''s see how it does live. Here are system 2's signals for today (I will not take any as of now)

TEX/NYY U (strong)
CLE/ATL O (normal)
MIA/DET O (normal)
LAD/MIL O (normal)
TOR/COL O (normal)
PHI/ARZ O (weak)
HOU/LAA O (strong)
BAL/SD O (strong)

Lets see how this does. I'll start tracking both systems asap.

[chaka]

man, you got some serious issues my man. One down day and you are acting like I loss my BR. For the 12th time, I am RISKING 4%. I usually get 78 cents to $1.10 on a dollar, average around 85 cents.

Again, one down day and look who's all loud now. LMAO!
Over 0.5

MIN/CWS risking 4% (semi strong signal)
STL/KC risking 4% (semi strong signal)
BAL/SD risking 5% (strong signal)

nobody said you lost your bankroll- just ALL of your profit gone from a mere 5 plays

thought you werent risking more than 4% --looks like a 5% on balt/sd which is it? talking out both sides your mouth
thought you were going to back down when you were streaking-- isnt 0-5 a losing streak?


LOL while you think you are arguing with me - you actually attempting to prove math wrong...Good luck with that..

ive never told anyone here not to tail or to tail you...just your money management and math skills are bad...your ROI is probably in the neighborhood of -10% but no one following you can know because you dont post your risk/reward @ odds

using bankroll makes it look better doesnt it? hope you do win today but the facts are you will not beat this prop wager risking 4%+ of your bankroll over 5-6 plays a day at negative odds

[TechnicalTrader]

nobody said you lost your bankroll- just ALL of your profit gone from a mere 5 plays

thought you werent risking more than 4% --looks like a 5% on balt/sd which is it? talking out both sides your mouth
thought you were going to back down when you were streaking-- isnt 0-5 a losing streak?


LOL while you think you are arguing with me - you actually attempting to prove math wrong...Good luck with that..

ive never told anyone here not to tail or to tail you...just your money management and math skills are bad...your ROI is probably in the neighborhood of -10% but no one following you can know because you dont post your risk/reward @ odds

using bankroll makes it look better doesnt it? hope you do win today but the facts are you will not beat this prop wager risking 4%+ of your bankroll over 5-6 plays a day at negative odds

Batman, life must be tough battling us criminal betting-forum posters. but I'm happy we have you. Keep this place safe Batman!

I post what I am risking every time and also post my results. Batman, seriously... Go open your own thread on money management, either that or anger management because you sound super bitter my man. Do you have paypal? If I paypal you 100 bucks, will you promise to get your jimmy shined. It must be that. Myman, let that stress out.

[TechnicalTrader]

"Are you sure you want to add chaka to your ignore list?"

YES clicked

[mohye1980]

Juice kills. Keep that in mind. Anything above -110 and you need to be picking winners or you'll get buried. Good luck

[thekoreanmang]

My unders for the day.

OAK/SF risking 4% (strong signal)
CHC/CIN risking 4% (strong signal)

Feel free to trail or fade me through the fire like Chaka.

Let's get it!

It's good to have contrarians and to think about the other possible outcome to make sure no one gets too high but at the same time no need to kill someone, esp OPs on this forum, when they're trying to share some wealth with everyone.

[sammst3r]

LMAO. You felt the 0-5 coming from a mile away? Your spider senses must be on point.

What suggestions would you have for him? I'm genuinely curious.

I felt the 0-5 coming from a mile away and faded the plays. Not to say he'll continue losing but i'm always open to some new money management suggestions and you seem like you've got an idea about what you're doing.

[sammst3r]

Naw, chaka, no kidding here. I used to see you post on VR's thread but haven't seen anything in a bit...

i am not sure if you are being sarcastic since I didn't post on forum or genuine..but books record plays which is why I attached the screenshot

Only Posted 4 totals in reapers thread..all won and played out almost exactly as my posted breakdown..
cubs pitt game had 19 walks and HBP and still went under 7... Ariz/ philly under with Greinke and another hot low whip pitcher was under by 3.5 runs.. Think it was next day top 4 sluggers sat and despite 4 runs in the first inning with two high era pitchers still stayed under by 3 runs... Last one I posted was last weekend yanks/twins over and expected evaldi to not make it past 5th likely few hrs allowed...expected Santana to not pitch well but he really did

i also told people to start backing off the Cubs right before their slide in that same thread

not always going to be like that ..I'm not frickin Houdini, but unlike majority here I explain why I back my plays in detail...no one does here ..it takes time. I get that

Generally I don't get my plays in til close to game time due to work (plus I like to see weather, lineups and pitcher/batter history)
so it doesn't benefit anyone and I've seen enough complaints towards others posting close to game time it's not worth the headache..
..weekends are exception..now I don't normally play as many games like yesterday but I didn't play them all right away in morning .. I played a few while analyzing next round...played couple more. Analyzed late games etc

My strength is analysis and while Mr trader was yakking it up having a good day yesterday...thinking it was unfathomable he could go Ofer
Karma and laws of probability (on an extremely volatile prop) reared their ugly head as it took only one more day to play out just as I told him his style eventually would...give it back twice as fast as winning it

0-5 -22% bankroll...leaves him hitting 56.5% and with less bankroll than he started.. Like I said we've seen this movie before and it never ends well

. Hopefully people finally realize to ignore hype...it's about bankroll preservation, money management and understanding how to reduce juice and find edges

normally i I don't play overnights but I did at 3 am this morning. Chi -1.5 130/100 clev -1.5 even and tor -129
So gonna be 2-1 today after Colorado turned 4-0 deficit into 9-4 route in 2 innings so will still net 3/4 unit

[TechnicalTrader]

2-3, will get numbers up later. I'll be back. Willmost likely lower risk to 3% tomorrow

[TechnicalTrader]

Will post performance later today. Busy at work, then catcher training in a two hours. Will most likely get performance up in about 5hrs.

Here we go:

BAL/SD O. risking 4%
MIN/CWS O. risking 4%
TEX/NYY U. risking 4%

System 2:
CHC/CIN O
HOU/LAA O
BAL/SD O
TEX/NYY U
MIN/CWS O
PIT/SEA O

[thekoreanmang]

Will post performance later today. Busy at work, then catcher training in a two hours. Will most likely get performance up in about 5hrs.

Here we go:

BAL/SD O. risking 4%
MIN/CWS O. risking 4%
TEX/NYY U. risking 4%

System 2:
CHC/MIA O
HOU/LAA O
BAL/SD O
TEX/NYY U
MIN/CWS O
PIT/SEA O

Good work. I know the system is hitting some volatility, but hey, it's a new system and you're trying things out. I'm sure you will fig it out and things will stabilize.

I appreciate the work being done here but I also appreciate the critics on this thread as well because it's good to be fully informed of all the issues at play especially for those are not familiar to all of the aspects of smart betting. I know I can always learn more.

[chaka]

anyone playing these 1st inning plays realize that Yankees have scored in the first inning only 8% of road games this year?

or how many times those same 8% road scoring Yankees played a home team scoring in only 12% of the games?
or that Milwaukee has scored in almost 50% of their Home games in the first inning???

or that the rockies are towards the bottom on league in scoring in first inning??? scoring 2x more in first at home than on the road

wish i knew how to import sort and search using xcel because using a few parameters might yield some truly valuable plays when used in conjunction with current P vs B matchups/lineups and weather

anyone able to help with this?

I have two other filters I am very optimistic would be very useful in narrowing plays

[chaka]

btw did anyone notice san diego moved Upton to leadoff ? - hes been stealing a ton and hot with longball lately

I didn't think anyone could be as bad as shields til I saw johnsons numbers...the irony is they were traded for each other

[chaka]

Naw, chaka, no kidding here. I used to see you post on VR's thread but haven't seen anything in a bit...

work related ads/commercials et
give me another week or so to get all that bs done