1. 06-01-16 06:55 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Wednesday, 6/1/16

    2 MLB Plays Wednesday So Far

    Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
    Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)


    YTD: 149-161-7, -4.81

    Totals Coming
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  2. 06-01-16 07:08 AM #2
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    4 MLB Plays

    4 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
    Rangers / Indians UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)
    Mariners / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
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  3. 06-01-16 07:11 AM #3
    pilebuck13
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    Is Harper going to play today lt?
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  4. 06-01-16 07:15 AM #4
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Mets 66% (-194)
    St. Louis 62% (-163)
    Washington 74% (-285)
    Cubs 65% (-185)
    Houston 64% (-177)
    Colorado 64% (-177)
    Seattle 62% (-163)
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  5. 06-01-16 07:16 AM #5
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Is Harper going to play today lt?
    He is Doubtful. Still a huge pitching mismatch though.
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  6. 06-01-16 07:27 AM #6
    blackHIPPY
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    gl today
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  7. 06-01-16 07:52 AM #7
    lonnloe
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    Let's get it! BOL!
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  8. 06-01-16 10:27 AM #8
    Rich Boy
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    See a 4-0 day for you LT, gambling gods owe you one
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  9. 06-01-16 10:36 AM #9
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    60%ers:

    Mets 66% (-194)
    St. Louis 62% (-163)
    Washington 74% (-285)
    Cubs 65% (-185)
    Houston 64% (-177)
    Colorado 64% (-177)
    Seattle 62% (-163)
    Fiers grades out that much better then Ray to warren this big of a favorite?

    BOL Today!
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  10. 06-01-16 11:05 AM #10
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    Fiers grades out that much better then Ray to warren this big of a favorite?

    BOL Today!
    There are other things involved too such as Houston grading out better in the bullpen and offensively, but yes, Fiers is a bit better thanks to K/BB ratio.
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  11. 06-01-16 11:14 AM #11
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    There are other things involved too such as Houston grading out better in the bullpen and offensively, but yes, Fiers is a bit better thanks to K/BB ratio.
    Thank you. One more question. How does a back up catcher playing such as Lucray sitting today affect your numbers. Total and line wise how much value is the catcher worth?
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  12. 06-01-16 11:56 AM #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    Thank you. One more question. How does a back up catcher playing such as Lucray sitting today affect your numbers. Total and line wise how much value is the catcher worth?
    Model is player specific, so depends on how good/bad backup is. The St. Louis 63% above was using Milwaukee default lineup. After inserting Maldonado in the eighth spot and moving rest of default lineup up a spot starting with Carter now at cleanup, I STILL get St. Louis 63%.

    Impact minimized by eighth batter expected to get fractionally fewer at-bats.
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  13. 06-01-16 12:00 PM #13
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    3 MLB Additions

    7 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
    Twins / Athletics OVER 8.5 -120 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Indians UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Astros UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Rays +107 (Heritage)
    Mariners / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
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  14. 06-01-16 12:06 PM #14
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    7 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
    Twins / Athletics OVER 8.5 -120 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Indians UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
    Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks / Astros UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Rays +107 (Heritage)
    Mariners / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Lt, can you give me a little feedback on the over 8.5 in the Oakland game. Thx.
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  15. 06-01-16 12:11 PM #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Lt, can you give me a little feedback on the over 8.5 in the Oakland game. Thx.
    Mainly because Dean does not grade out well and both offenses get above average ratings vs. lefties. Model has 9.6. With that being said, 8.5 is a key total here, pass at 9.
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  16. 06-01-16 12:11 PM #16
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Mode going against the 11-game Arizona over trend again, huh?
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  17. 06-01-16 01:00 PM #17
    mikefan1034
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    fading....
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  18. 06-01-16 01:25 PM #18
    juicername
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikefan1034 View Post
    fading....
    If LT is 149-161-7, -4.81, then fading must have costed you a boatload of juice this season. Well done miketroll, keep it up.
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  19. 06-01-16 01:31 PM #19
    Roscoe_Word
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    Excellent price on A's. Can't explain that huge line jump, though.
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  20. 06-01-16 01:55 PM #20
    mikefan1034
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    If LT is 149-161-7, -4.81, then fading must have costed you a boatload of juice this season. Well done miketroll, keep it up.
    I pick my spots u klown who bets over 300 games of LT darts lol
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  21. 06-01-16 02:21 PM #21
    MMA_Oracle
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    edit ignore
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  22. 06-01-16 02:25 PM #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Mode going against the 11-game Arizona over trend again, huh?
    That streak could be precisely why we are getting +105. So while the streak means nothing in and of itself, it appears to be serving the purpose of giving value to the Under.
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  23. 06-01-16 02:26 PM #23
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    Now down to six plays, NO ACTION on Mariners/Padres total.
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  24. 06-01-16 02:56 PM #24
    RavensFan2k3
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    LT you developed your model yourself?
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  25. 06-01-16 03:21 PM #25
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    LT you developed your model yourself?
    No I had a programmer do it, I just made suggestions on what stats I wanted.
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  26. 06-01-16 03:31 PM #26
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No I had a programmer do it, I just made suggestions on what stats I wanted.
    Ohhh okay. Is this something you adjust normally, or only in the off seasons? Or ever?
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  27. 06-01-16 03:38 PM #27
    Smutbucket
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No I had a programmer do it, I just made suggestions on what stats I wanted.
    Is he looking for more business? Im looking for a programmer to create a model. PM me please
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  28. 06-01-16 04:03 PM #28
    RavensFan2k3
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    Go Oakland!
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  29. 06-01-16 04:08 PM #29
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    That streak could be precisely why we are getting +105. So while the streak means nothing in and of itself, it appears to be serving the purpose of giving value to the Under.
    The way I look at it, the streak exists because Arizona can't get anyone out. Until that changes, I'm a streak rider. I got +105 at over 9.
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  30. 06-01-16 04:17 PM #30
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    The way I look at it, the streak exists because Arizona can't get anyone out. Until that changes, I'm a streak rider. I got +105 at over 9.
    Makes sense, LT's model doesnt account for things like streaks, weather, or motivation
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  31. 06-01-16 04:31 PM #31
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Makes sense, LT's model doesnt account for things like streaks, weather, or motivation
    It doesn't account for the players either as the plays are released long before lineups are released.
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  32. 06-01-16 04:40 PM #32
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    It doesn't account for the players either as the plays are released long before lineups are released.
    True
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  33. 06-01-16 04:43 PM #33
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Makes sense, LT's model doesnt account for things like streaks, weather, or motivation
    I don't know if it makes any more sense than a model that runs an actual statistical analysis, but I've won the last three overs in this streak, so why not ride it out? Picked up the Detroit over streak at about this point last season and did quite well with that. Maybe lightning strikes twice.
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  34. 06-01-16 05:26 PM #34
    funnyb25
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    1-2 to start. Shit
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  35. 06-01-16 07:24 PM #35
    eddycash
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    1-1 to start where do you have a 2nd loss?
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