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Not much difference between 2.73 and 2.84, Sale is an elite pitcher either way. My model has him as the second best rated pitcher in the game behind only Kershaw. And Price's FIP is encouraging, he should be really good going forward with the ERA dropping steadily.Originally Posted by JArrieta49
Bout to be 9-0 today.
Sorry the jinx didn't work out.
What in your model puts Sale above Arrieta? Just curious.
Kershaw
Arrieta
Sale
Syndergaard
Scherzer
My top 5 in order. Can't go wrong with the first 3.
My problem with jumping on the Sale hype is he is only facing bad offenses. Kind of a product of playing in the AL right now I guess.
Twins - 27th in OPS
Yankees - 26th in OPS
A's - 24th in OPS
Angels - 21st in OPS
Blue Jays - 20th in OPS
Indians - 16th in OPS
Astros - 13th in OPS
Rays - 12th in OPS
Orioles - 6th in OPS
Can't get much easier than that.
Kershaw.
Atlanta - 30th
San Diego - 29th
San Diego - 29th
LA Angels - 21st
Blue Jays - 20th
Mets - 14th
San Fran - 11th
San Fran - 11th
Miami - 8th
Sale - 18.33
Kershaw - 19.22
Kershaw managed to get easier than that.
Sounds like Arrieta is the winner then. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Arizona... 4 tough games out of his 8.
It is a complicated formula to determine overall model rating, but just eyeballing it, Sale has the better walk rate than Arrieta and they are close in everything else. Model is also high on Price, no doubt because of great K/BB ratio, so he is worth following while he still may be undervalued.
Top 6:
Kershaw
Sale
Arrieta
Price
Strasburg
Syndergaard
Yep Arrieta faced a tough schedule.
Can't get much tougher than that.
In particular years, things don't always "catch up with you" --- in baseball, "truth" is typically over a 3-5 year span. You really need that kind of aggregate data. Some years a team just has a knack to get clutch hits, or Sale has that much more mojo to get clutch outs after giving up more hits (or walks) than expected, keeping ERA down ...
Stats really NEED 3 years, even though they can be demonstrative in a single year ... they aren't always
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Houston only -140 for +1.5 would have made sense if you were backing Astros here.
No need to be a hero with the ML against a guy 8-0 and dealing.
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They lost 2 or 3 straight JJ before they won last night.
They had their Ace stud last night and only won by 1...not a great team by any stretch and they will come down to earth.
Best to back them with Quintana and Sale IMO...and I think they have another guy that's not too bad - can't remember his name.
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Quintana is an Under machine...I only played Under 8 small today because I don't know much about Gee for KC.
Houston +1.5 should of also been a loss. White Sox squandered multiple opportunities. And Houston nailed one big hit off Sale.
Eaton
They have come down to earth. Rodon is good and the back end has been productive, but Latos is already showing that you can't get away with giving up 9-12 hits and expect to keep runs from crossing home plate.
Tonight should be an over play
Yeah, I took Sox -1.5 and it was a bit risky given their slump offensively for a few here, but it was a solid play. I played White Sox -.5 first 5 innings and cashed, so it worked out ok
"should have" btw
Haven't been able to hit for shit, but you're betting on Sale holding them to less than 2 or less. They have 2nd and 3rd with 1 out I think, no score. Eaton led off the 7th or 8th with a triple and didn't score. Lots of blown chances for them. Houston did blow any chances since I don't even know if they had a guy get on 2nd base all game.
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Add to it that Kershaw never gives up diddly squat to SF in his career and he's faced them twice.
Miami was his only kryptonite, and he had 1 bad inning in that one.
Sale uses his arm to generate the vast majority of his power. Very little power generation in his lower half.
This results in dead arm phases where Sale just turns into a meatball spinning turd a few stretches every year.
This is what separates Sale from guys like Kershaw or Arrieta.
Might be starting a stretch like that tonight. Something to watch out for.
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