You've hardly seen a TT Under 3 at plus $ with Arrieta over the past 2 seasons.
Pirates TT (U 3) at +105
For a guy that has allowed just 3 ER in 18 innings at home this season and has a 1.15 career ERA vs Pirates.
Probably worth a stab. Very chilly in Chi-town today...wind might be a slight factor, but Arrieta does not easily give up the long ball.
Maybe just as good a bet is Cubs TT (O 4.5) vs. Locke, who is is "Locke" to give up at least 3 while he's out there.