Bit of a letdown yesterday. Hoping to rebound today. One early game, so we'll start there.
1pm ET: Wichita St. vs. UC-Irvine [UCI 1-0]
UCI won on the strength of another dominant performance from pitcher Scott Gorgen in Game 1. The Anteaters though were kept in check and did not score their lone run until the 8th inning when they got to the Wichita State pen which walked a couple batters, gave up a blooper and then the eventual game winner - a grounder off the pitcher's leg. Look for another low scoring pitcher's duel today.
The Pick: Take the Shockers +145 to pull one out at home and force a Game 3. The price is fantastic/ridiculous since this series again in my estimation is a pick 'em every game with how well these two teams pitch.
Wichita State needs to be more patient at the plate. Etheridge is gonna go the distance easy if they don't challenge him to throw strikes. They're beating every ball into the ground.
The deciding third game of this series. Louisville has to be disappointed because they had a 2-1 lead in an elimination game in the 9th yesterday for a trip to the CWS before they blew it. Louisville's pitching was great again, they only allowed two hits in the first 9 innings. Problem was they were both long balls. Game 3 figures to be a toss-up with neither team announcing their starting pitcher yet. Both bullpens are pretty fresh. One thing to keep in mind is that yesterday's OSU starter Justin Friend also served as the team's most reliable closer. So he won't be available in a late inning situation. This seems to be another instance where with things being mostly equal, I would advise taking the underdog.
Louisville looking good so far. 7-2 lead. Didn't do a write-up for the 3:45pm ET start. Oregon State vs. Michigan. They're scoreless. Still think OSU is the play there as a heavy fave.
7pm ET STARTS
Game 3: UNC vs. S.Carolina
This should be a great game in what has been an entertaining series featuring plenty of offense. SC completed a win in the 2nd game of the series that was suspended due to weather on Saturday to tie the series. They were up 8-2 and wound up winning 8-6. I'll say it again, the Tar Heels are never out of a game. I saw a stat yesterday that was true at least through part of that second game. All their runs had been scored with two outs. Insane! Game 3 is a toss-up and the line reflects that. SC is +105 and UNC -125.
Probables: SC Mike Cisco (6-2, 3.76 ERA) vs. UNC Luke Putkonen (7-1, 4.46 ERA)
Pick: LEAN TO UNC -125.
This one is likely to come down to the bullpens with both offenses clicking in the first two games. I feel that if UNC can get off to a good start instead of coming from behind, they'll win this one handily - but that is easier said than done. Still, UNC's ability to comeback in ballgames points me in their direction. I'll probably wait to see if the line moves before making a final decision.
Game 2: Arizona State vs. Ole Miss [ASU 1-0]
Anxious moments for the home standing Sun Devils in Game 1, but their offense came up clutch in the 9th inning with 3 runs to win 4-3 after a masterful pitching performance from Ole Miss' Will Kline. Although a little more dramatic than Rice's rally over Texas A&M in their Game 1 - this reminds me of that series where the underdog had their shot and failed.
Probables: MISS Lance Lynn (8-4, 2.55 ERA) vs. ASU Josh Satow (12-3, 2.56 ERA) or Brian Flores (10-1, 3.80 ERA)
PICK: ASU -285
The price is too rich for me, but I think ASU puts Ole Miss away tonight after flirting with disaster in Game 1. The pitching match-up should be pretty even, but ASU owns the superior offense and I expect them to show that again tonight.
I actually took Ole Miss myself in that game plus the generous price. Whats your thoughts on CS Fullerton/UCLA Mr.Eagles? I'm kinda leaning towards UCLA in that game.
I liked UCLA in Game 1 w/the big dog price, but Fullerton destroyed them from the first pitch and that was UCLA's best starting pitcher. Hard to think that UCLA is going to fare much better today with a depleted bullpen. CSF didn't use their pen at all. I think UCLA's only chance will be to outslug CSF. UCLA is +200 and CSF -240. I'd say -240 isn't a bad price to pay for a team that totally outclassed the other in Game 1.
Probables: CSF Jeff Kaplan (11-3, 3.35 ERA) vs. UCLA Gavin Brooks (6-6, 4.65 ERA)
I'll probably line watch and hope some people jump on UCLA to bring the CSF price down. If it were to somehow drift closer to -220 or lower, I'd probably take it for a unit.
UNC is up to -135, same price they f'ed me at yesterday. Hoping some late SC action might buy it back down. Probably oughta pass it, but I like UNC to win.
I noticed UNC is -140 in a few places as well. Actually tough to go against them even at the small chalk that they are. I feel there is some value with the Heels as well.
Alright, well I don't know if you talked me into it or not, but going against the write-up again.
OLE MISS +245 (half a unit). Their pitcher tonight has some big wins under his belt, including a road win against Vanderbilt. Think it was worth a small play.
UNC -135 (1.5 units). Little bit smaller than my two unit play on 'em yesterday. Let's see if I sink or swim with 'em tonight.
Earlier results ... down a quarter unit. Lost one unit on Wichita State, but Louisville is holding it down for my 3/4 unit bet which should pay since they're up big.
Yeah I think the Rebels are toast now down 3-0. Still wasn't a bad try for a small play. They had a shot last inning to score a couple runs, but hit into a DP.
Friggin North Carolina is gonna be the death of me if they keep going this way.
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