With Jeff on the mound I'm alittle hesitant just because of the bad spring he had. I especially don't like it with it being -138. My bookie has it at -140 and I am not touching it. If there was more value I may had considered it.
Well let's assume the brewers will lose 92 games this year which is a bit more than projected by oddsmakers. Fading the crew ever game you'll be correct roughly 56 percent of the time. You'll also most likely be laying juice 90 percent of the time. To break EVEN fading the Crew every game you'll need to average opposing team juice of -127 for the year.
Just something to keep in mind. You can fade Crew every game but if you're laying -140 to -150 on average you'll still lose.
That said I'm sure you were kidding about fading every game.
If the juice gets to be too much I probably wouldn't bet as much. Or just play it by what I'm feeling. What about playing the spread when it gets to be over -150??
Braves, brewers and phillies worst teams in the game. Fade when opposing teams aces are on the mound! Even then, nothing is a lock. Look at the Nationals, Scherzer pitched against the Braves and they won but it went to extra innngs. That must have been a real sweat job for alot of people that day.
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