1. #1
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    If You Care About MLB Season Wins Totals

    we need to talk ...

    How is Tigers only over/under 81 wins ?

    And, even though their players are getting beaned left and right

    and Maybin just went down for 4 weeks from getting hit on the wrist

    I am tempted to pull the trigger on the over before it changes

  2. #2
    BennyBigNuts
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    Redsox Under 86.5
    Biggest lock on the board

  3. #3
    daneblazer
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    Roster is old, pitchers over rated, and there's tumbleweeds blowing through their minor league system.


    Hey, you asked

  4. #4
    RockBottom
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post
    Roster is old, pitchers over rated, and there's tumbleweeds blowing through their minor league system.


    Hey, you asked
    And no easy wins in their division.

  5. #5
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    we need to talk

    ill get back with you guys shortly

    you all have a lot to learn

  6. #6
    lakerboy
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    Tigers might finish last in the division.

  7. #7
    turtlejc
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    because brad ausmus
    Nomination(s):
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  8. #8
    jjgold
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    Hard to predict pitchers getting injured

    Hitting means nothing in MLB

    If you have good pitching you win lots of games

  9. #9
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    we need to talk ...

    How is Tigers only over/under 81 wins ?

    And, even though their players are getting beaned left and right

    and Maybin just went down for 4 weeks from getting hit on the wrist

    I am tempted to pull the trigger on the over before it changes

    locked in at over 81 wins @ -125 for 7 units

    $210 to win $168


    Had to do it,pulled the trigger last night actually.
    Its at 82 and 82.5 at a lot of other places (although only -115)
    I still like the combo of over 81 for a lil more juice

  10. #10
    Slipknot26
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    What do think on :
    Royals Over 84.5 ?
    Cubs U 93.5 ?
    Thank you

  11. #11
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    under 70 wins for 4 units

    $120 to win $104.35

    They are in a super tough division as it is , and only won 64 games last year
    Now they got rid of their best pitcher , best closer,Todd Frazier and Mike Leake as well (who is underrated)
    Jay Bruce is going to be traded this year and possibly Brandon Phillips as well
    Their initial number 1 starter Anthony Desclafani is out indefinitely with oblique injury
    which only adds more question marks to a very subpar rotation

    Billy Hamilton can be scary but he cant steal first.... can he ?
    Guy has horrid OBP and hits the ball in the air too often .
    Votto is Votto, going to do his thing but he doesnt drive in many runs



  12. #12
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slipknot26 View Post
    What do think on :
    Royals Over 84.5 ?
    Cubs U 93.5 ?
    Thank you
    used to write large reasoning's as to each move
    but I simply do not care enough to take the time on here to do it anymore
    I will just say quickly that Id take Royals over 84 or no play.
    The Cubbies are fukkin stocked ... and the thing is they can win some games in the regular season
    its the playoffs where the "perpetual chokers" label starts to gnaw away at their minds
    they started off 15-15 last year and still almost won 100
    now their team is only stronger and more gelled coming into this year .
    The rotation is good if healthy, but Lackey wont have as good year this year as last year
    he simply allows too much hard contact for Wrigley
    The lineup is scary good though.

    Gun to my head Id say Cubs slightly over the 94 win mark
    btw most books Im seeing have Cubs at o/u 94 wins.

  13. #13
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    got 2-3 more coming . Havent finalized emm yet tho .

    Heres something super duper cool for you to read below


    THIS THREAD WILL RETURN PROFITS THIS YEAR

    ..............GUARANTEE'D

    Nomination(s):
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  14. #14
    Slipknot26
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    Thanks for your input
    Hope you have a great year

  15. #15
    Breadloser
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    The Tigers play in the roughest division this year. There's no other division where all 5 teams expect to make the playoffs. Obviously they all wont, but all of the 5 teams have 90 win upside.

    My favorite team by far is the Twins. Indians are the trendy pick, but I don't like that at all. Twins have one of the best managers in baseball. Lineup is loaded with young talent. In Park and Sano, I guarantee you have 70 homeruns. I loved the Murphy trade also. Rotation is very underrated with Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Millone, and Berrios set to join.

    I also like the White Sox. Ventura is another favorite of mine. Frazier, Rollins, Lawrie join Abreu, Eaton and Garcia to form a really formidable lineup. Sale, Rodon, Quintana is as good as any top 3 in baseball.

    In my opinion these two teams have the best chance of winning that division/clinching a wildcard.

    To me, Milwaukee is far worse off than the Reds, and I would rather bet against them. I really can't overemphasize how awful the Brewers are. Chris Carter, Kirk Niewenheis, and Aaron Hill are all in the mix for opening day. Their rotation and bullpen are also in the bottom 5. Imagine if Braun misses time. Even with him, 70 wins or less. Guaranteed.
    Last edited by Breadloser; 03-29-16 at 06:13 AM.

  16. #16
    Regul8er
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post
    under 70 wins for 4 units

    $120 to win $104.35

    They are in a super tough division as it is , and only won 64 games last year
    Now they got rid of their best pitcher , best closer,Todd Frazier and Mike Leake as well (who is underrated)
    Jay Bruce is going to be traded this year and possibly Brandon Phillips as well
    Their initial number 1 starter Anthony Desclafani is out indefinitely with oblique injury
    which only adds more question marks to a very subpar rotation

    Billy Hamilton can be scary but he cant steal first.... can he ?
    Guy has horrid OBP and hits the ball in the air too often .
    Votto is Votto, going to do his thing but he doesnt drive in many runs



    A 6 month bet for only $104.35?? That means essentially you are playing $0.65 per game....

  17. #17
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    A 6 month bet for only $104.35?? That means essentially you are playing $0.65 per game....
    no.....a normal bet for me is around 20 bucks on average
    these are just fun to me , im only locking up a percentage of my bankroll
    and I usually come out ahead on these @ end of year.
    Gl this year

  18. #18
    RollinDo
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    I have Zona (O 81.5) and Jays (O 86.5)
    These Win totals are pretty tough.

  19. #19
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breadloser View Post
    The Tigers play in the roughest division this year. There's no other division where all 5 teams expect to make the playoffs. Obviously they all wont, but all of the 5 teams have 90 win upside.

    My favorite team by far is the Twins. Indians are the trendy pick, but I don't like that at all. Twins have one of the best managers in baseball. Lineup is loaded with young talent. In Park and Sano, I guarantee you have 70 homeruns. I loved the Murphy trade also. Rotation is very underrated with Gibson, Hughes, Santana, Millone, and Berrios set to join.

    I also like the White Sox. Ventura is another favorite of mine. Frazier, Rollins, Lawrie join Abreu, Eaton and Garcia to form a really formidable lineup. Sale, Rodon, Quintana is as good as any top 3 in baseball.

    In my opinion these two teams have the best chance of winning that division/clinching a wildcard.

    To me, Milwaukee is far worse off than the Reds, and I would rather bet against them. I really can't overemphasize how awful the Brewers are. Chris Carter, Kirk Niewenheis, and Aaron Hill are all in the mix for opening day. Their rotation and bullpen are also in the bottom 5. Imagine if Braun misses time. Even with him, 70 wins or less. Guaranteed.

    yeah Brew Crew is bad but Cincy is really bad and ALREADY hit by big injuries lol
    Plus, I believe the Reds will be open to more trades.... Toronto already has huge interests in Jay Bruce
    plus moving him makes perfect sense and they hinted at it a few times.

    Brew Crew isnt a bad bet either... but I feel more confident personally on the Reds under.

    As far as the Tigers, ur correct with the division
    They also have the hardest first month schedule in the big leagues with many road games also
    so if they can right the ship the first 30 games its lookin really good

  20. #20
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    I have Zona (O 81.5) and Jays (O 86.5)

    These Win totals are pretty tough.

    I know ....



    btw Breadloser , The Twins are one of the 3 teams im having a dilemma with right now

    I like all of the overs for the Twins over 79 (-115) , the Blue Jays over 86.5 (-120) , and the Astros over 87.5 (+105)

    Im only betting two of those 3 because I dont want too many overs this year

    thinking the Twins is going to be 1 of the 3 no matter what.... the Astros is tasty with the +105 ...

    but the Blue Jays are offensive juggernauts like maybe never assembled in one lineup before

  21. #21
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post

    I know ....



    btw Breadloser , The Twins are one of the 3 teams im having a dilemma with right now

    I like all of the overs for the Twins over 79 (-115) , the Blue Jays over 86.5 (-120) , and the Astros over 87.5 (+105)

    Im only betting two of those 3 because I dont want too many overs this year

    thinking the Twins is going to be 1 of the 3 no matter what.... the Astros is tasty with the +105 ...

    but the Blue Jays are offensive juggernauts like maybe never assembled in one lineup before
    Yeah, I think as long as their starting pitching can hold their own, they'll be alright.
    They usually play well in their division too, which appears slightly stronger, but I'm not sold on the Red Sox.

    I feel that Zona (81.5) is a trap and I fell into it...kind of like Seattle last season.

  22. #22
    astro61200
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    I never bet win totals as I hate having too much money tied up for so long.. That doesn't mean I'm not good at them though, I'll pull up 5D and see what we have to work with

  23. #23
    astro61200
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    First thing I notice, when looking at futures, is this:

    MLB Regular Season Props - Home Runs Nolan Arenado
    Sun 4/3 12:00PM
    <cite>must play in 1 regular season game for action</cite>
    Over 110 home runs <input id="editx" name="C_493" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -105
    Under 110 home runs <input id="editx" name="C_494" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -115


    Pretty good odds that Arenado ends up with less than 110 HR's this season

  24. #24
    astro61200
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    Braves u65.5 +125
    Red Sox u86.5 +105
    Cubs o93.5 -105
    Reds u70.5 -155
    Rockies u71.5 -150
    Tigers o81.5 -130
    Astros o88.5 +130
    Royals u84.5 +100
    Brewers o70.5 +105
    A's o75.5 -140
    Phillies u64.5 +145
    Cardinals u86.5 -145
    Rays o82.5 +115
    Rangers u83.5 +100
    Nationals o88.5 -125

    That's what I came up with.. if I were planning on betting them (and I might now) I'd check more indepth and probably knock a few off though I was pleased to see that my overs and unders were even (8 unders to 7 overs) so that tells me I'm not being unrealistic


    Also came up with these futures:

    U51.5 Doubles -145
    Stanton o36.5 HR -135
    Longoria u23.5 HR -145
    Kyle Schwarber u27.5 HR +105


    Dallas Keuchel o14.5 W -135

  25. #25
    Breadloser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel_CashFlow View Post

    I know ....



    btw Breadloser , The Twins are one of the 3 teams im having a dilemma with right now

    I like all of the overs for the Twins over 79 (-115) , the Blue Jays over 86.5 (-120) , and the Astros over 87.5 (+105)

    Im only betting two of those 3 because I dont want too many overs this year

    thinking the Twins is going to be 1 of the 3 no matter what.... the Astros is tasty with the +105 ...

    but the Blue Jays are offensive juggernauts like maybe never assembled in one lineup before
    The Blue Jays lineup is not historic at all. Consider some of the Bombers teams with Jeter, Arod,Matsui, and Cano. Their pitching is awful. Also, where are they going to play Jay Bruce? Encarnacion plays 1st and Collobello is the DH. If they are going to empty the cupboards, it better be for a pitcher. The Yankees interest me the most in the AL East. I like to bet on good managers, check. Good pitching, check. The lineup a ton of upside there with Ellsbury, Castro, Beltran, and the rest of them.

  26. #26
    Breadloser
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    * another team I'm very high on is the Marlins. You have a division with two potential also-ran teams which is always good for picking an over. This team will be good, and now they have a respected manager who's coming off two division wins out west. It should signify a regime change and tell the players that the games count starting this season. Bonds doesn't hurt either. The Marlins have excellent starting pitching. Their lineup should be above average in terms of runs scored and they play elite defense at almost every position. To me, the NL East is a 3 team race, not the h2h people percieve.

  27. #27
    Regul8er
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breadloser View Post
    * another team I'm very high on is the Marlins. You have a division with two potential also-ran teams which is always good for picking an over. This team will be good, and now they have a respected manager who's coming off two division wins out west. It should signify a regime change and tell the players that the games count starting this season. Bonds doesn't hurt either. The Marlins have excellent starting pitching. Their lineup should be above average in terms of runs scored and they play elite defense at almost every position. To me, the NL East is a 3 team race, not the h2h people percieve.
    I like the Marlins offense.....but why do you say they have excellent starting pitching? When healthy Fernandez is fantastic. Chen was good last year, but was fortunate. After that you have Cosart, Koehler and COnley......none have ever really showed much of anything.

    If you hit this one...I wish you the best of luck.

  28. #28
    jjgold
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    I bet if you take under in every team you might turn a small profit

  29. #29
    Breadloser
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regul8er View Post
    I like the Marlins offense.....but why do you say they have excellent starting pitching? When healthy Fernandez is fantastic. Chen was good last year, but was fortunate. After that you have Cosart, Koehler and COnley......none have ever really showed much of anything.

    If you hit this one...I wish you the best of luck.
    That's fair. Excellent was probably a reach. I am looking for a big jump from Cosart, plus at least one of their other rotation candidates. I believe this is an 85 win team, and I think they have to try to pursue that end through trades during the season if necessary. They've lost touch with the fan base down there. Don't think Mattingly would've went down to that sauna if there weren't certain promises made. To me, you also have the benefit of all those games vs the Phillies and Braves - this over is a total layup.

  30. #30
    Breadloser
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    * Arizona is another OVER I am looking at. Chalky, but they are also my pick to win the NL West. The Rotation is almost as formidable as the lineup which plays boasts two superstars in Pollack and Goldschmidt. Lots of reinforcements, and excellent defense up the middle. Stewart will also need to be aggressive because the fans have expectations this year. I really don't know who would bet against this club's chances or why.
    Last edited by Breadloser; 03-30-16 at 01:16 AM.

  31. #31
    Breadloser
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    So far, I've picked OVER for the Twins, White Sox, Astros, Marlins, Dbacks, Yankees, and Nationals.

    The UNDERS I like are the Brewers, Giants, Indians, A's, Jays, Royals and Mets.

    As far as the Mets, I think Harvey poisoned the well with his stupid antics last November. My gut feeling is that Cespedes will regress after signing that contract. Also, bullpens are not the hardest to fix, but you have Reed, Bastardo, Carlyle in the setup mix - I don't really get it. They may get the WC, but Nationals are my pick for the NL East. If I was Alderson I would have traded Harvey. Find some team thirsting for an ace and try to get back some of the young talent they traded last summer. The guy they moved to get Cespedes, Michael Fullmer, he's going to be the Tigers ace for a long time. History will see that trade as a big loss. I think that Jeff Wilson absolutely forced his hand with that trade.
    Last edited by Breadloser; 03-30-16 at 01:48 AM.

  32. #32
    VegasPlayer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breadloser View Post
    * Arizona is another OVER I am looking at. Chalky, but they are also my pick to win the NL West. The Rotation is almost as formidable as the lineup which plays boasts two superstars in Pollack and Goldschmidt. Lots of reinforcements, and excellent defense up the middle. Stewart will also need to be aggressive because the fans have expectations this year. I really don't know who would bet against this club's chances or why.
    Team went public with wanting to break their stadium lease last week. Bonehead move IMO 10 days before opening day. Whether that makes a difference on the field remains to be seen, but a distraction nonetheless.

  33. #33
    cankid
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    they should be solid as long as they stay healthy, talk about timing on the lease thing

  34. #34
    astro61200
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    How is no one talking about taking the Braves under? 66 wins is going to be difficult for that team and it's +125.. same with the Phillies at 64.5 +145

    One, if not both, of those will go under. Even a split results in a profit.

  35. #35
    newguy
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    Quote Originally Posted by astro61200 View Post
    How is no one talking about taking the Braves under? 66 wins is going to be difficult for that team and it's +125.. same with the Phillies at 64.5 +145

    One, if not both, of those will go under. Even a split results in a profit.
    Braves move to new stadium next year. They aren't gonna make run this year anyway so assuming they are trying to prep talent for a strong year first one in new stadium under seems right.

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