[jjgold]

I guess we have to go with Sox's tonight weather permitting.

[bigboydan]

How strong do you feel about this one and how many units coach?

[jjgold]

I am just betting small because I do not like it much, its on tv so I like to have action on it.

[rjt721]

Take the over. Beckett struggles against the Yanks, and the Red Sox will work the count against Pettitte, making him throw a lot of pitches early to try and get to NY's terrible pen. There will be plenty of runs in the late innings when the bullpens get involved, and Papelbon will likely be unavailable tonight. Over 9.5 is the play.

[zootiehead]

We like the Yankees.

[Mr Nuts]

Yanks are looking good so far

[tacomax]

Abreu.

[Razz]

These teams have two fundamental differences, explaining why one has the fantastic record, and one is underachieving so badly. The Red Sox play nearly impeccable defense, and their starters, even when pitching poorly, pitch deep into the game so the soft underbelly of their bullpen isn't exposed. The Yankees are basically the opposite. They sometimes make nice plays, but they make the routine plays far too infrequently. More importantly, when their starters don't have it, they come out early, which makes the bullpen look much worse than it really is.
Tonight's game is the season to date in a nutshell.

[tacomax]

I think you've only captured half of it.

Last year, the Yankees were 2nd in avg and 1st in runs scored (by a mile). This year they're 7th and 5th respectively. This year, their pitching isn't so bad compared to last year - less than 0.30 ERA worse. The Yankees are built on crap pitching and big bats. Big bats can quite often compensate for crap pitching, but crap bats will come unstuck even with good pitching nevermind crap pitching. Just look at Pettitte's ERA compared to his win/loss figures.

[Razz]

I think you've only captured half of it.

Last year, the Yankees were 2nd in avg and 1st in runs scored (by a mile). This year they're 7th and 5th respectively. This year, their pitching isn't so bad compared to last year - less than 0.30 ERA worse. The Yankees are built on crap pitching and big bats. Big bats can quite often compensate for crap pitching, but crap bats will come unstuck even with good pitching nevermind crap pitching. Just look at Pettitte's ERA compared to his win/loss figures.

Yes, but fundamentally, the Yankees system wouldn't even work if they were 1st or 2nd in the league in runs. It might be enough to get them into the playoffs, where they could lose in the first round again, but it's not a WS model at all. I mean, they think Clemens is the answer. Shit, Clemens is going to average what? 5.1 IP per start? That's not the damn answer. I'd rather have guys with a little less stuff and a lot more endurance, so Proctor, Bruney, etc. don't have their arms fall off, and the long relievers - who kill the bullpen's image and ERA - only get on the field once a week instead of every other day.

[tacomax]

I say that, and then the BoSox "relief" comes in.

[rjt721]

Wow. A contribution from Abreu.

[Razz]

rjt or Taco, answer me a question. If the Yankees somehow are playing the Red Sox in the ALCS, and the Red Sox pitching staff is exactly assembled as it is today - in other words, ignore Lester, etc. - who do you want in the rotation, and in what order?

[rjt721]

1. Beckett - Yes he struggles against the Yankees, but he's the clear ace of the staff.

2. Schilling - If for nothing else but experience, he gets the nod ahead of Daisuke.

3. Matsuzaka

4. Wakefield - Not much confidence in Wake or Tavarez, but Julian would be more of an asset in the pen than Tim, so he gets the call.

[tacomax]

I'll plump for:

Beckett
Schilling
Dice-K
Wakefield
Anyone but Tavarez

Against anyone else, I'd tip Wakefield to 3rd purely on his performance so far this season, but he's been struggling big time against the Yanks. Although Dice-K appears to be getting better, it seems to be X innings of good pitching followed by a nightmare inning to blow all the good work. Hopefully the starting pitching is followed by Okajima (surely one of the stars of the year) and Papelbon for a shut out last 2 innings.

[tacomax]

Damn, Manny's going for it tonight.

[Razz]

Great play Bobby!

[Razz]

Hmm, OK. I really think Beckett will be a big disappointment (Relatively speaking, of course, he's not going 2-10 in the second half. Something like 5-7 or 6-6 wouldn't surprise me though.) later this year, but I guess we'll see.
I'd throw Tavarez in there as the #4 specifically against NYY, just because of the results to date, and personally, despite what I said before the year started, I think Matsuzaka will be your best starter as the season progresses.

[Razz]

These teams have two fundamental differences, explaining why one has the fantastic record, and one is underachieving so badly. The Red Sox play nearly impeccable defense, and their starters, even when pitching poorly, pitch deep into the game so the soft underbelly of their bullpen isn't exposed. The Yankees are basically the opposite. They sometimes make nice plays, but they make the routine plays far too infrequently. More importantly, when their starters don't have it, they come out early, which makes the bullpen look much worse than it really is.
Tonight's game is the season to date in a nutshell.

Make that three fundamental differences. The Red Sox may not be a small ball team, but they can "get them over and get them in" when necessary. The Yankees have a man on third with no outs and now need a 2-out hit just to score him. Pathetic.

[Razz]

Good 0-2 pitch to the best pure hitter in the history of the game.

[rjt721]

Good 0-2 pitch to the best pure hitter in the history of the game.

Papelbon hasn't been sharp at all the last couple weeks. Too many fastballs, not throwing his split enough.

Rivera now facing Ortiz, Manny and Youk. This will be interesting.

[Razz]

Great battle here to start the inning.

[bigboydan]

That loser Papelbon just flat out choked tonight and cost you coach.

[tacomax]

Good game, good game.

[bigboydan]

Papelbon sucks...Ain't that right Taco

[Dhuepaxuz]

Had the Under, was looking good until the 8 run inning. Killer inning.

[tacomax]

I missed it on ESPN, but found it elsewhere - that was a pretty funny expression of ARod's indiscretions.

[jjgold]

Good call on the over

I still do not like Beckett, his velocity is not over powering