Wells in great form, Simontacchi not. Padres have lowest bullpen ERA in majors, so six strong innings from Wells should be enough. Wells is 6 for 6 in Quality Starts vs. Nats/Expos. Padres are 21-6 last 27 head-to-head. All things considered, I thought -124 was reasonable.
Does it concern you at all that this is the most lopsided action game today on the board. That is the public is all over SD....plus WASH falls into a strong system today that plays on struggling pitchers.
Sometimes need to keep it simple. I am as contrarian as they come, but I still need a REASON to bet the dog. I couldn't find one angle that I use to support Nats here. I wouldn't do it BECAUSE the public is on SD, and if I come across a strong angle that says to play ON a struggling pitcher, I would want a lot more than +116 to follow it.
I hate Rays as a favorite on principle alone. Plus the Royals have been one of the best bets in the league on the road this year, and yes I had then the first two games of this series.