Toronto ML, under: Toronto is not sending out much of a lineup at all right now. Marcum is really doing well in his starter's role, and that is likely to continue here vs the Sox. Danks is ok, but the Sox are having problems pulling out wins right now, and facing a solid and up-and-coming starter like Marcum doesn't bode well for them. Add it all up, and a realtively low-scoring Toronto win is a likely outcome.
Tampa Bay RL: Tampa Bay starter JP Howell has always had a bit of promise, and he has supposedly been improving recently, adding one pitch and refining his others. He has been decent in the minors this year. Elarton has been bad this year, but not nearly as bad as he's been vs Tampa Bay in his 5 career starts against them. If Elarton gets hit and Howell has a decent start, Tampa Bay will be relatively similarly likely to win by more than one as they will be to win outright, so the RL probably has added value.
Boston ML: At first glance this line might seem about right, but IMO it is off a bit, not favoring Boston as much as it should. Obviously, Boston has the best record in all of baseball, while the Yankees are actually tied for 8th worst. And obviously, Boston has won all 9 of Beckett's starts this year. But beyond that, Beckett is poised to throw another good game here, after having had a couple of weeks off, and then a low pitch count in his last game. And while Pettitte can of course be a top-notch starter, and a shutout outing is always a real possibility, this will be the 4th time he has started against Boston this year, and they could be poised to score a few off of him, as they already have once this year. The line is a bit low IMO, and with a relatively high degree of confidence.
I do agree with you on your Red Sox play Mr.GanchrowHG, however I won't be laying that type of wood though. When breaking down this series on Thursday night I had the Red Sox being a -150 favorite in this rubber match game.
Cle: Yes I think there is a small amount of value on Cleveland. Sowers of course is having problems, but he has pitched ok at times this year. Bonderman is good but Cleveland has handled him in the past. Detroit will as usual have bullpen problems. I don't think Cleveland should be an underdog in this spot.
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June 3 Ganchalysis: a few early solid plays
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