[Senator7]

Ok, so its not officially the dog days of summer yet, but I have always looked at June 1 as the first day of summer. Those of you who know me know I'm a huge fan of underdogs when it comes to betting baseball. Every day throughout the summer, I'm going to list the underdogs I like on that day's card. I will not list any favorites in this thread and I would like the discussions in this thread to revolve around attractive underdogs only. The line I quote is the best available current line from SBR Odds. So, for 6/1:

Arizona +120

Chicago White Sox +131

Kansas City +180

Baltimore +176

Discussion?

[bigboydan]

I like your Baltimore play tomorrow Senator. That Baltimore team is playing some outstanding baseball right now, and there pitching staff has been damn good in the month of may.

[rjt721]

Arizona +120 - This one's interesting. The D'Backs are obviously playing great right now, and they have their ace going tomorrow. However, Webb hasn't been as sharp as he was last year, and Maine has actually outperformed him to this point. The Mets offense is far superior, and I think NY's offense is more likely to get to Webb than AZ's is to get to Maine. I think the value actually lies with the Mets at a relatively cheap price with their best pitcher on the mound. Personally, I feel the under is the best way to play this one, but if you like the D'Backs, I'm pretty sure you will be able to get a better price sometime tomorrow.

ChiSox - Both pitcher's make me sick. I can't back either in this spot.

KC - The Royals are just brutal right now, and even though Kazmir can be shaky, I just can't back the Royals right now, particularly on the road.

O's - This number seemed a bit high to me at first, but given Cabrera's inconsistency and propensity for being wild (although he is improving in that regard) I can't back the O's against Lackey, who has emerged as a true ace and probably one of the top 6-7 pitcher's in baseball.

[onlooker]

and there pitching staff has been damn good in the month of may.

But it is now June. We will see how that holds up.

[MJFtheGenius]

i disagree with pretty much every pick except the kanas city game I did not look at. However putting money on the Orioles tommorow is like throwing money in the garbage. I understand they won 6 in a row but 3 of those games were against the Royals and their other 2 on a struggling oakland team at the time. Also add in the fact that the Angels are 14-4 in game 2's of each series and the orioles are 9-9. Not to mention Lackey will bring his ERA of a little over 2 tommorow. It Shall also be noted the Angels are 8 and 3 in all of Lackeys starts. Even though The Angels are are at such a high price take them cause its a lock written in stone.

[AC1318]

I say

royals +180 kazmir 2-1 overall 2-0 at home

twins +120

reds +130

for the unknown factor of how these starters will perform

last night there were four unknown factors

burres
bowie
thompson
obermueller

and they went 3-1

when I say unknown none of these guys ever faced the teams they played but did they play well.

burres +205
bowie +130
obermueller +155 kept it close down to the wire
thompson +160

the kind of odds I know SEN 7 likes to see.

[AC1318]

on straight up games I like

white sox

detroit

[Senator7]

A lot of people must like Arizona today. The D-Backs opened @ +123 at Pinnacle and are now @ -101. I'm off that game since the value is gone...

Still considering:

Chicago White Sox +135

Kansas City +197

Baltimore +196

[EBone]

Have played Baltimore today, Senator. I have also played the Reds, Rangers and Marlins. I do like the O's play. I love Lackey but that price is outrageous. I'm playing the O's on principle alone.



E

[LT Profits]

Senator, see my "I hope Dogs go 15-0 Friday thread".

I bet all 3 of your finalists myself, and I passed on Arizona.

[rjt721]

A lot of people must like Arizona today. The D-Backs opened @ +123 at Pinnacle and are now @ -101.

I'm very surprised by the line movement in this one. Even with the D'Backs playing great and Beltran now questionable, I think the Mets are the play.

I got a terrible price on them last night at -126.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm probably gonna skip that Mets game altogether now. I don't like all the line movement. My dog is Matt Morris & SF for sure. Still debating some others. I've had the CHISOX as a dog I like for the duration of their losing streak. Only bet them once though - might take a shot there tonight.

[The HG]

I like the Sox and KC, but the Baltimore game is troubling, and I'll tell you why. Baltimore's pen will be in bad shape for this game. Chris Ray, if he goes, will be going on his 4th straight day. Lackey should be tough at home, and hold down the so-so Baltimore lineup. Baltimore will need a shutdown start from Cabrera to have a chance, and even if they get it, it should still be a competitive game. Cabrera is capable of that of course, but he is also unreliable, and if he has control problem, the Angels should win comfortably. Walks will be killer against the Angels' lineup in this park. I don't see a lot fo value with Baltimore at all here, and in fact I think I like the Angels.

[rjt721]

Ganch, any thoughts on the D'Backs/Mets game?

[The HG]

Ganch, any thoughts on the D'Backs/Mets game?

Yeah I was going to post about it before. First of all, Beltran was never questionable, he was clearly going to be out yesterday. I wrote about that earlier in the day in a different thread. He might have been listed as questionable somewhere, but there was an article saying he would "only miss a few days".

Now, Wright is also out, which is unexpected. Now there's Julio Franco at third, and in the OF, Ben Johnson, Chavez, and I think Newhan. So that's going to be a pretty chintzy lineup. Basically all you have will be Reyes, Chavez and Delgado. And Loduca if he plays.

You may want to hang on to the Mets' bet though. It may not be worth it to switch over. I'd have to look at the numbers for it. It depends what you think the Mets' chances of winning now are. I might put them somewhere in the low-mid 40s. So in that case, it may not be worth it to switch over or take it back.

But I knew Beltran was going to be out yesterday, and because of that and Webb and Arizona playing well, I did expect the line to move in the direction it did.

Maybe we should start a thread every day where people discuss where lines they want to play will move.

[Senator7]

Ok, so its not officially the dog days of summer yet, but I have always looked at June 1 as the first day of summer. Those of you who know me know I'm a huge fan of underdogs when it comes to betting baseball. Every day throughout the summer, I'm going to list the underdogs I like on that day's card. I will not list any favorites in this thread and I would like the discussions in this thread to revolve around attractive underdogs only. The line I quote is the best available current line from SBR Odds. So, for 6/1:

Arizona +120

Chicago White Sox +131

Kansas City +180

Baltimore +176

Discussion?

Arizona, Chicago, and Kansas City are all ahead in the 8th.

So far so good...