Mets/Fla over: You can get either 8.5 or 9 at plus odds. Games at Florida have tended to go over this year, and this one looks as good as any. There have even been strong winds in from center reported the last few games, and they have still tended to go over. Hernandez may very possibly be out of sync returning from the DL. Mitre has been good this year, but is not a world-beater yet. And Florida's bullpen is shaky and tired in this spot even if he does have a strong outing.
Oak/Bal over 7.5: These two starters are strong and Bedard especially does seem to be getting on a roll. However, this number is low. Haren will not have the ballpark protection here he enjoys in most of his West Coast games. Bedard also has a propensity for high pitch counts and early exits, and if that happens, the Oakland lineup will be able to pounce on the Baltimore bullpen even if Bedard has shut them down. The last time these 2 starters met in Baltimore this year the game saw 11 runs, and it could easily see a similar number tonight.
Cle ML: Robertson has been having some problems in his recent starts. It's not clear exactly why as yet, but Cleveland is not a good team to face if it continues. And after Robertson, of course, no matter how he fares, is the always vulnerable Detroit bullpen, which makes any underdog they play with a good lineup worth a look. Byrd of course has been quite solid this year, and has always pitched pretty well at Comerica, which stands to reason considering his style. Add it all up and there is probably value with Cleveland as an underdog.
Yanks ML: The usually overvalued Yankees actually have value here IMO. Weaver is good when pitching in pitchers' parks against average lineups because his fly balls die in the outfield. But the Yankees should be able to get to him with their lineup full of big bats at Yankee Stadium where the balls should carry tonight. Clippard had a solid debut start against the strong Mets lineup. He could have a case of nerves pitching at Yankee Stadium for the first time, who knows. But if he's OK mentally, the Yankees should have a good edge over the Angels, and their pen should be able to hold a lead in the late innings if they have one.
Phi/Atl under: The line is at 8.5 now, but if Howard returns it should climb to 9. If it doesn't I'll probably take 9 anyway at favorite odds. Hudson has been legitimately strong this year, and shouldn't have a problem holding down the Philly lineup, as he has already done twice this year. Moyer is crafty and knows how to get outs in parks like Turner, and his slow junkballing style should keep Atl off-balance. 10 runs could be scored in this game, but it will be a labored task to reach that number.
Wash ML, Wash/Stl under: Washington continues to be undervalued against mediocre teams on the road, and here they are again a big underdog against a decent but not terrifying team going with a starter. Reyes has made 8 starts this year and Stl has lost each one of those games. That's nothing more than a catchy fact, but it still makes you wonder what could be going on in this game to justify them having a better than 60% chance of winning this one. Micah Bowie is not great, but OK, and Washington should be competitive in this game again.
With the total, Washington should experience a letdown coming out of a high-scoring series at Cincinnati, and Bowie and the serviceable Washington pen should be able to keep down the average Stl lineup.
Tor/Minn under: I got this one at 9.5, and I think it has a lot more value there than where it is now. But these two lineups are fine, but not terrifying, and the two starters are young up-and-comers who have been effective so far and looking to stay that way. The bullpens involved are decent as well, giving small but solid value to the under IMO.
KC ML: KC has done well as a home underdog recently, and they should have value here again. Yes Felix is great and could be dominant here tonight, but Meche has been legitimately good as well this year, and could match his performance. Seattle doesn't have a dominant lineup, and KC should be competitive throughout, giving them likely value as a home underdog.
White Sox ML: Tampa Bay starter Shields is good, but that's mostly all you can say for TB in this one. TB is not playing well right now, with a young and inconsistent lineup, the Dukes scandal, and a shaky bullpen. When they played their series in Orlando, they seemed energized and beat a sub-par Texas team 3 in a row. But other than that series, they have lost 11 out of their last 13, with only 2 one-run wins, including their last game where they almost blew an 8-run lead. The White Sox' lineup is picking it up after getting Thome back, and Buehrle has been solid in general this year. Add it all up and the White Sox probably have value as a modest favorite.
Ari ML, Hou/Ari under: There is probably small but solid value with both of these plays. Houston does not have the greatest lineup, and Williams is not a dependable starter, while Gonzales has shown flashes of ability all year. So Arizona as a small favorite and the under with a highish total both probably have a bit of value.
Mil ML, Mil/SD under: The under has been cashing a lot at Petco this year, as would be expected, and with 2 quality starters going tonight, there is likely to be more of the same. Bush has problems on the road, but they might not be the case tonight considering the increased margin for error Petco will give him. These teams should mostly trade scoreless innings tonight, and Milwaukee should have as good a shot as SD to come out with a win.
Col ML, Col/SF under: 2 strong young starters tonight, and 2 lineups that can be held down. Cain is off of a highish pitch count, and Hirsch should be capable of matching him, which probably gives value to both the under and Colorado ML. A close, low-scoring game is likely.
Dodgers ML: The Cubs are falling into their old habit of having a hard time pulling out wins. they are 6-10 in their last 16, against average competition. Lowe is quite capable of having a shut-down start, and if he does, the Cubs will be hard-pressed to come out with a win. With a shaky pen on the road, they will be vulnerable even if Lilly keeps them in the game. Unless Lowe gets hit hard, a possible but unlikely scenario, the Dodgers should have a big advantage, giving them probably value as a normal-sized favorite.
I would wish you luck, Ganch, but I'm on the other side of nearly every one of your ML plays...
I do like Cleveland and Kansas City ML tonight, but I didn't play either.
My plays today were on four underrated pitchers: Lilly, Shields, Bedard, and Reyes.
Their WHIPs, records, and ERAs don't tell their whole stories. All of their Expected ERAs are much better than their actual ERAs and the pitchers they're facing have Expected ERAs much higher than they're actual ERAs. I saw a lot of value in that tonight...
No problem Senator, I understand that it's more important to you that you win money than that I win money.
But do you think those starters are underrated?? Reyes, yes.
But Lilly, Shields, and Bedard?? I think most people think they're all very good.
The Cubs are not playing well and have a shaky pen, yet they are only modest underdogs on the road against a good home team with a pretty good starter. TB has been terrible, having a hard time winning anything, yet they are also only a modest underdog against a team with their big hitter back and a starter who threw a no-hitter last month. And Baltimore is even odds against the league ERA leader. That all seems like a healthy amount of respect for those starters, IMO.
And even Reyes, Stl is a huge favorite even though they haven't won a start of his yet this season. That seems like a good amount of respect for him too.
I'm not sure those guys are underrated, people know how good Bedard and Lilly can be.
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A lot of plays I think are decent tonight
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