[The HG]

SF w/under parlay: There's no reason to think this game will be any different from the last one these two pitched. The night should be cool again, and a strong wind blowing out last night didn't matter for the over. SF will have an advantage if the game is close and low-scoring.

Oak/Wsox over, Oak w/over parlay: I like the over for the same reasons I did last night. These 2 offenses are picking it up (Oakland more so), and the starters today are a clear step or two down from yesterday. Oakland has some good bats going, and should be able to score against Danks. The Sox bats are quickly becoming closer to what they once were, and Lewis should be vulnerable, to say the least. Oak as a dog also should have value, because their lineup is ascending faster than the Sox' lineup is, and the Sox continue to give away or threaten to every game they are about to win.

Cleveland RL: Carmona is the real deal, and Cleveland's lineup is considerably better than KC's. A strong start by Carmona, a bunch of runs scored by Cleveland, and a solid pen closeout is likely.

Cubs/SD under, Cubs w/under parlay: The 6.5 posted total is still too high IMO. There's a block against going any lower. 6.5 is itself below the psychological boundary of 7. But posting a total of 6 or 5.5 would take extraordinary circumstances. Hill's had 2 mediocre starts, but he should respond by being lights-out here. With runs at a premium, the Cubs have value as such a big underdog.

Minn/Tex over: Loe can be good, but when he's not, he's very vulnerable. Santana of course is vulnerable to the HR and could yield a couple here. Just a small play on this one, because Texas could easily be held down by Santana, but the total is low enough that it could creep over even if that happens.

Col/Ari over: Both starters had good games vs the opposing teams last time out, but it should be different this time around. Colorado has some pop, and Hernandez usually gives up a modest amount when he starts. Fogg is always vulnerable of course, and a big innings is always around the corner when he goes in a hitters' park. Yesterday the total went way over with much better starters.

Tampa Bay RL: Washburn is effective in pitchers' parks, but here he will be vulnerable. Kazmir is likely to bounce back from his bad last outing. He's done well vs Seattle so far in his career, which makes a bit of sense since his style is well-suited to beating the traditionally free-swinging Seattle lineup. The strong Seattle pen adds a bit of value to the RL.

Pitt: The line is moving in favor of Stl, but I think that's a mistake. Duke has pitched better than his overall stats indicate, and Stl is particularly feeble against lefties. Wainwright is having problems with mechanics and tendinitis, and they're not likely to just go away in this game.

Mets RL: Davies shows flashes of excellence but he's not consistently ready for prime time. Sosa has always been streaky, and when he's going good, he can be very effective. If the Mets jump out to a multi-run lead early on, it will be tough for Atl to come back.

Bal: Toronto is a bit worse vs righties, and Cabrera is likely to have a solid start here. The game should be close, but Bal should have an edge at home with the line about even.

Wash: This is likely to be an ugly game all around; shaky starting pitching, weak and tired bullpens, and mediocre lineups. In this war of attrition, there's probably value with Wash as a big underdog.

[EBone]

On Oakland as well Ganch HG. The OVER is probably a better play with somewhat of an unknown in Colby Lewis. However, I agree that Oakland should score tonight.

ChiSox scare me for one reason: it seems like Thome comes back and all of the sudden the Sox start hitting again. Somehow, I don't think that is coincidence.


E

[bigboydan]

I thought I was going to be one of few people that liked Oakland tonight. Colby Lewis is not all that bad of a pitcher IMO, and is more than capable of winning this game tonight against Danks.

I do like your Pitt play Mr.GanchrowHG. I found that the Pirates do have some real good value tonight. I think people are still betting on the Cardinals waiting for them to turn it around, but I don't feel thats gonna happen with the way there playing.


Not only do I like your Texas/Twins play. I happen to like the Texas side plus that nice price. Johan is a second half type pitcher, and with the way the Rangers are hitting the ball right now, if they get knock him out by the 7th inning they stand on hell of a chance of winning this game.

[rjt721]

I like the Giants/under and Cubs/under plays.

I think the D'rays are the best play tonight, although I will be playing them on the ML. That bullpen is just too shaky for me to take the RL. I love Kazmir pitching at home, and the price is very affordable for TB in this one. Washburn, surprisingly, has been quite effective, but the Rays' bats are always tough at the Trop. I just don't think Washburn is nearly as good as his numbers to this point would indicate.

Also like the O's quite a bit tonight, although I disagree on the Mets. Probably won't be playing this one, but I do think the value lies with ATL at plus money at home - Sosa is just as inconsistent as Davies. If Andruw Jones wasn't swinging the bat like Steve Finley at the moment, I would be on the Braves. As is, I will likely pass on this game altogether.

Ganch, any thoughts on the Halos/Tigers? I see value with Detroit as a home dog, even with the pitching disadvantage.

[The HG]

I think the D'rays are the best play tonight, although I will be playing them on the ML. That bullpen is just too shaky for me to take the RL. I love Kazmir pitching at home, and the price is very affordable for TB in this one.

The bullpen weakness of TB (and relative strength of Seattle's) is part of why I took the RL. The other of course is a relatively high volatility factor in general for these pitchers and teams.

A weak road team bullpen that blows a late-inning lead is likely to result in a one-run win, while a weak home team bullpen is less likely to hold a one-run win, and if they blow a lead, are less likely to blow it only down to one run. Since bullpen strengths and weaknesses are usually factored into the line (or at least can be assumed to be) you get a benefit taking the RL on a home team with a weak pen vs a road team with a stronger pen.

If you want to bet on a team but are afraid of their pen, taking the 5-inning line is a better option.

But it's only a small advantage, and obviously other things factor in as well. The ML's good too I think.

I disagree on the Mets. Probably won't be playing this one, but I do think the value lies with ATL at plus money at home - Sosa is just as inconsistent as Davies.

I don't know about this, I like the Mets. Davies does pitch the Mets relatively well at Turner, but he is significantly less likely to have a quality start than Sosa here, IMO. I think the Mets are going to jump out early against Davies, I think they'll have a 4-0 or 5-1 lead by the 5th or 6th inning, something like that.

any thoughts on the Halos/Tigers? I see value with Detroit as a home dog, even with the pitching disadvantage.

I like the Angels in this one. They're playing as well as Detroit, and Lackey does well at Comerica and parks like it. The Angels should get to Maroth more than Detroit should get to Lackey.

And I'm really not sold on the Jones, Rodney & Co. bullpen of Detroit. I know Jones has done decently this year (although he blew his only save opp vs the Angels so far) but look at his game log, most of his saves have come against weakish lineups. I think he's going to go through a bad period this year where he blows half his save chances or something like that. It might not be tonight of course, but after Jones, the Detroit pen looks pretty chintzy, and they're likely to need it, even if Maroth keeps up with Lackey.