1. 08-20-15 03:05 PM #1
    akphidelt
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    Really like the Indians/Yankees Under 8.5 (-105)

    Alright, got some strong indicators on this game. Over 61% of going under 8.5. The behind the scenes stats...

    Nova has gone 9 straight games without allowing more than 4 runs.

    This Tomlin guy hasn't pitched for months with injury but came back looking strong against Minnesota. 5ks, 6 innings of work and 2 runs. He also doesn't have to face Texiera. Tomlin has never allowed more than 5 ER in a game.

    His at bats with the current Yankee lineup, they've been hitting around .200 on him. Teixeria was the only one who really owned him. Arod is 2-9, Ellsbury 3-16, Beltran 1-5, Gardner 2-7.

    There's a lot more that goes in to it, but those are some of the highlights. I think first 5 under would also be smart, as one way this can be ruined is late against the Indians bullpen. As Tomlin coming back from injury probably is not going to last late.

    Indians/Yankees Under 8.5 (-105)

    Just like all bets, there are no guarantees. A 39% chance that they score over is still a decent probability. Just following the probabilities. GL
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  2. 08-20-15 03:25 PM #2
    akphidelt
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    Just like yesterday, Phillies probabilities were higher than Toronto. I'm just going to follow the stats on another big dog. I have Colorado winning this one. 51%/49%. I'm going to wait for the lineups to come out to make sure the Rockies are set, but this is a heavy lean for me. Scherzer just has not had his stuff the last month and Flande does not give up very many runs. His ERA is weighted by early relief efforts. As a starter ER (4,3,2,1,0).

    So not a play yet, but definitely most likely will be one later today. Not gonna fight the Scherzer trend. I've watched teams just lay wood on him lately.
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  3. 08-20-15 03:37 PM #3
    akphidelt
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    Plus Jose Reyes is in a good mood today.


    Jose Reyes@lamelaza_7

    SMILE! Today is an excellent day to be proud of who you are.????
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  4. 08-20-15 04:45 PM #4
    akphidelt
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    I'm passing on the Rockies. Their lineup looks horrible. No LeMahieu... got McBride, Descalso, Garneau, and Flande going up against Scherzer. I'll pass. I do like Scherzer over 7.5 ks though.
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  5. 08-20-15 04:54 PM #5
    akphidelt
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    Final card... until maybe the late game. I have strong signals on the Dbacks putting a hurting on the Reds tonight. I'm thinking they score over the total themselves. GL all

    Yankees/Indians Under 8.5 (-105)
    Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Ks (-125)
    Dbacks/Marlins/Cubs ML Parlay (+312)
    Dbacks RL (+135)
    Dbacks/Reds Over 7.5 (-115)
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  6. 08-20-15 06:52 PM #6
    akphidelt
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    Will the real Corbin please stand up. This fake Corbin is getting rocked. The over is looking good at least. AZ bats should get live against Lamb.
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  7. 08-20-15 07:10 PM #7
    gregmav1
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    Had money on Dbacks too. Wtf.
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  8. 08-20-15 07:15 PM #8
    akphidelt
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    Yea, they were heavy faves for me. They have a dangerous lineup though, so I'm not worried yet. But Lamb is definitely pitching much better than his last outing. Corbin getting rocked. He's already out.
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  9. 08-20-15 08:06 PM #9
    akphidelt
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    Diamondbacks rally, let's goooo!!!
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  10. 08-20-15 08:15 PM #10
    akphidelt
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    I have the White Sox winning this and they are +money. My subjective reasoning wants the Angels, but I'm going to stick with the numbers.

    White Sox +117

    GL!!
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  11. 08-20-15 08:29 PM #11
    akphidelt
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    Tomlin pitching a gem right now! Did not expect him to get through 7.
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  12. 08-20-15 08:34 PM #12
    akphidelt
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    The most relied upon player for the Dbacks is killing us tonight. Goldschmidt 0-4 and the 1 and 2, 5-8. Did not see Goldschmidt and Castillo going 0-7. Need a miracle. Would be a solid day if the Dbacks win this with the Cubs and Marlins killing.
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  13. 08-20-15 08:38 PM #13
    akphidelt
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    Here's a chart that shows the distribution of how many runs teams score based on hits.

    http://akptracker.com/index.php?c=stats&m=runsPerHits

    75% of teams score over 3 runs when they have 10 hits. This is sickening!5
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  14. 08-20-15 09:02 PM #14
    Aye J Mac
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    Go dbacks
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  15. 08-20-15 09:04 PM #15
    akphidelt
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    That's what I'm talking about!!!! Pollock!!
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  16. 08-20-15 09:36 PM #16
    akphidelt
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    Scherzer ends with 7ks... dangggggggg!!! He had so many chances for more strikeouts.
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  17. 08-20-15 10:00 PM #17
    akphidelt
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    The nats are pathetic, should have stuck with the Rockies read.
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  18. 08-20-15 10:14 PM #18
    gregmav1
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    At least we got the dbacks win. Quite a solid comeback win.
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  19. 08-20-15 10:33 PM #19
    akphidelt
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    Quote Originally Posted by gregmav1 View Post
    At least we got the dbacks win. Quite a solid comeback win.
    Yea that was a huge win! Especially with goldy and Castillo going 0-9. They really should have had a lot more runs that game. But just getting the win and over was huge.
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  20. 08-20-15 10:33 PM #20
    akphidelt
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    White Sox!!!! On a side note I'm sick about not playing the Rockies. The nats are a mess. Would have been great money!
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  21. 08-20-15 10:43 PM #21
    gregmav1
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    I agree man, I gotta stop playing the Nats. So overhyped and over-juiced every night but I still play them 30% of the time. Just gotta stay away, they are Harper and no one else.
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  22. 08-20-15 10:47 PM #22
    gregmav1
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    Nice hit on that Dbacks/Marlins/Cubs parlay man, that's real nice. I was big on Cubs/Nats :/ penetrate me. Was big on Dbacks and Marlins/Phillies over though so not a bad night
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  23. 08-20-15 11:00 PM #23
    akphidelt
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    Thanks man! Yea. Hit two +300+ parlays in a row. Keep it rollin!!
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  24. 08-20-15 11:06 PM #24
    pilebuck13
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    Man you have been pretty stinking spot on brother mad props man
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  25. 08-21-15 12:13 AM #25
    akphidelt
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Man you have been pretty stinking spot on brother mad props man
    Thanks man, appreciate it!!
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