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Spot underdog play I like tonight
Tigers (Verlander) +152 v. Houston (McHugh)
Verlander will probably never revert back to 2011 JV when he was was striking a hitter an inning while winning 24 games and posting a ridiculous sub one WH/IP, however in his last four starts he has looked brilliant in three of them, JV was a hard luck loser last time out versus Boston going six strong innings, allowing 4 hits, 0 earned runs striking out seven.
His last two starts in July Verlander allowed one run each to Tampa Bay and Boston again, looking real sharp in both of them, both starts going 8 full innings, both starts (as I mentioned) only giving up one earned. Struck out 10 in that Rays start.
* I have to mention on 8/3 KC spanked him for 10 hits, yielding 5 earned in seven innings.
Point being Verlander has been pitching worlds better as of late.
McHugh starts for the Astros, and right handed hitting has been torching McHugh all season.
Righties are batting .307 against him, they are getting on base at an alarming .357 rate, and the stat that stands out the most is Colin McHugh has coughed up 10 homeruns in just 73 innings of work to right handers.
And there in lies the problem for Mr. McHugh.
RH batter JD Martinez has rocked 24 honers off of right handed pitchers this season so far, and hits .294 off of righties.
Miggy is back - and the last time I checked Miggy bats right. And the last time I checked (5 minutes ago) Miggy owns a eye popping .356 and gets on base at a .447 rate. (that's almost 1 out of every 2 times at bat he reaches base and has 11 bombs vs. RHp
Kinsler hits .299 off of RH pitchers ....
Overall Detroit hits .271 off RHP and Miggy is back.
McHugh is in a bad spot, even if Verlander gives up four, I really think Tigers can get six, not to mention the game is in a right handed hitting friendly park.
Houston does sport a team with homerun power, but they have also struck out over 1000 times, and have a very low on base average.
There's always a chance that Houston can touch Verlander for a couple of long balls, however if Verlander keeps them in the ball yard, and I think he can the way he's been looking as of late, Verlander can easily strike out 10 while giving up 1 earned.
OK, before I get too long winded here (or is it too late for that?)
I'm backing the Tigers off of the way Verlander has been pitching recently, and the fact that Miggy is back in the lineup, and the righties in the lineup that can really rough up a pitcher that struggles against RH batters.
Like any underdog play there is a certain amount of risk, at +152 however, the reward outweighs the risk involved.
I'm going to get a little greedy, not over the top greedy, but I'll wager 4* for a juicy 6* and change return.
Best of luck to all
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Originally Posted by pattymayo
2buckluck gave stevenash 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
