Originally Posted by
trobin31
Lots of tremendous pitching matchups in pitcher friendly ballparks on saturday.
though I think first five unders are the play as i don't trust hardly any teams bullpen these days.
Only totals I could play under with any confidence would be keuchel vs gray and Kershaw vs Cole given those ballparks and propensity for those 4 guys to pitch deep into ball games.
4pm Lester vs vogelsong is intersting as Giants problem with lefties is well known. Vogelsong managed to kill my bet against Atlanta 2 nights ago and now he's starting on the road where he sucks agst a hot cubs team but line seems like giants. Gonna need lester to stretch out some innnings tomorrow no matter what since they pulled hammels in the 4th last night.
Liking Cubs ff, Giants 2nd half? Giants ml/rl?
JDLR vs Zimmerman in DC. Zimmerman just got raked on prime time TV Sunday night so this is a nice bounce back spot agst a Colorado team who just traded away it's best piece in Tulowitski. Safe to say Rockies are coasting to the finish line at this point. JDLR is solid but not same guy on road & lefty, nats lineup is just loaded with right handed bats now. Super bonus: half of nats lineup owns JDLR. Nats are pretty healthy favorite at -150 so Vegas knows what's up and they might just be worth the expensive ticket.total at 7.5 seems low for a team that's prolly gonna get raped and got a dreadful pen. Nats tt ov?
Jose fernandez and tehran. This one has potential to be a 1-0 type game. Tehran totally different pitcher at home and if you haven't noticed his xFIP has been on a nice downslop each month 4-3-2 (Aug). Likely looking at a seriously juiced ff under 3 here but Marlins tt under 3 could hold some value in what will suredly be one overvalued pitcher vs undervalued. Add to it tehran owns a few marlins already. Liking the braves ff +0.5, ml or +rl?
Joe Kelly. Nuff said to warrant a look at detroit tt over. There are rare occasions when Kelly holds a team to 2-3 runs but always against pedestrian offenses, which, ain't the case here against detroit. ff over might be worth a look here too. I wouldn't trust a game total over as Norris is looking to make the most out of his opportunity to become a fixture in Tigers rotation and Redsox playing like they r back on the curse. I could live with a detroit ff -0.5 at +ev as well. Never trust detroit bullpen as a ml fave, ever.
Dickey vs Eovaldi. I think we have a vastly over-estimated total at 9.5 here as Dickey has certainly rounded into form lately and I think we all know how much he enjoys pitching in the New York winds. he's owned nyy thrice this year already and nyy just got owned by a more inferior bosox knuckler two days ago. Eovaldi certainly a trustworthy guy for 5 or 6 innings, esp at home. He has been a little banged up so got a couple extra days of rest equals fresh 99mph fastball. Blue Jays for all the love they've gotten recently aren't so tough on the road and against a hard throwing righty most of the lineup has had a limited amount of at bats agst. Definitely under on the ff and prolly safer on the full gm under 9-9.5
Pelfrey and Cody Anderson meet up for what looks like a shoot out on paper. Minny likely to become a heavy public dog here as Cody "nobody" Anderson laying -158 will get laughed at. Minny however just not scoring runs on the road and really big unknown with how they will hit Anderson. Pelfrey is pretty much a well known gas bag but has actually pitched well against Cleveland since they suck offensively. I ain't touching this one unless something sharp comes on cleveland.
Danks vs Volquez. I cant believe im saying this but Danks has been one of the most reliable pitchers since July. He owns the entire KC lineup and is 9-1 agst kc lifetime going back to 2007. Might not sound like a big deal with all the turnover of players but current Royals are batting 0.185 vs Danks in +200 at bats. Cain, escobar, zobrist, Perez all hitting < 0.185 vs danks. Only Perez has homered off danks. Danks is 4-1 at Kauffman but took his 1st loss to Volquez in april. Situationally a rather bad spot here for kc as they came home yest off a 10 game road trip and the honey due list is prolly rather daunting and distracting. Liking the Road doggie and under.
Degrom vs Odorizzi. Pretty hard to go agst Mets right now with anybody pitching, let alone Degrom who seems to be their legit ace. I suppose Odorizzi might make a case to back as a big home dog but I'd rather see some rather sharp movement to bite. Love me some ff under here, and likely following the steam so prolly Mets ml but mets bullpen showing some signs of fatigue lately.
Lastly, weather forecast looks clear across the country tomorrow. Salami prolly gonna be set lower than we usually see it so may have some value on the over if a bullpen or two can manage to implode.
Never did this much extensive of write ups but I guess we'll see how things pan out feels nice to get the thoughts down on paper but I like results better.
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