[Jaug]

I am back and I got a hot play for my European connection. The play is for tonight and MLB.

CWS@CLE is expected to be a low scoring affair, however here we have a great price on the over. Word is that Carrasco will have a bad outing.

Play of the year over 6.5 runs +119 . Hit it hard before line changes.

[unusialsusp5]

if it goes any higher i will jump on the under. play of the year is a tad optimistic. better hope carrasco doesn't see this. would make him bear down even more against inept white sox lineup.

[Honer4sho]

Struggling Indians vs a white sox team with a horrible offense. Neither team cares enough to put up big numbers. Don't see over hitting

[Jaug]

Struggling Indians vs a white sox team with a horrible offense. Neither team cares enough to put up big numbers. Don't see over hitting

I was surprised I got this call as well, but I have made some research and with +119 price this is play of the year for me. Dont overthink just bet.

[James Marques]

Tailing

[RavensFan2k3]

What makes this play so special that its "play of the year"?

[Alex Vaile]

Its now over 6 -110

[Alex Vaile]

Indians divisional games have gone over 12 out 15 games this year. I went this angel yesterday and almost got there. Good luck

[Rich Boy]

Would rather take a DET over, those are locks

[Jaug]

Sharpest book in EU raising price on U6.5

I see where this is going.

[stevenash]

My two cents.
It's not that bad of a bet.
Having said that it's hardly play of the year material.
Crap, it's not even play of the day material.

You can make a case for both sides of the coin.

Why it's a decent play.
Cleveland is a very, very good offensive team versus left handed pitching.

MLB rankings versus LHP

#2 in runs scored, #4 in OBA, pretty much top five in the majors across the board versus LHP. Except home runs.
They don't hit many homers off of LHP, they score all those runs by stringing baserunners together, and there in lies the problem.
The lefty they have to face is Chris Sale, and you just don't get many oppurtunities in a nine inning game to get many baserunners on off of Sale.

It doesn't matter if you got it from the horses mouth or not that Carrasco is in for a bad outing, history shows the top of the White Sox order has never had a problem with Carrasco in the past, especially Melke, and Adam Eaton drives him nuts too.
However both of them are Punch and Judy hitters, they are scrappy hitters that do not hit for power.
Take away Abreu and the whole White Sox team doesn't hit for much power.

What I am trying to say here is 7 runs total (I know the iine is 6.5, but you need 7 to win) in this game is doable, however don't count on the long ball to get you there, for this total to hit, you are going to need the Indians to string 3 runs off of Sale and the White Sox to get four from Carrasco.
If Carrasco does get pulled, the Indians have a very tidy bullpen. Not lock down, but top 8 in the majors.
And know this, Chris Sale never rolls over, he's a son of a bitch bulldog that gives a shit, gives a shit on every pitch.
And even though White Sox pen is leaky, Sale usually goes deep into games.

One final though, since Mike Muchlinski umpired first base last night he rotates to behind the plate and gets to call the balls and strikes.
He has umpired home 16 games this year, and the unders have covered 7 times and the overs have covered nine times.

The good news is the average number of total runs scored when Muchinski umps is 7.1
http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpire.as...KE&season=2015

If you like the over, consider White Sox over 3 runs as well.

Best of luck.

[FlyinAir]

Nice post nash!

[Alex Vaile]

My two cents.
It's not that bad of a bet.
Having said that it's hardly play of the year material.
Crap, it's not even play of the day material.

You can make a case for both sides of the coin.

Why it's a decent play.
Cleveland is a very, very good offensive team versus left handed pitching.

MLB rankings versus LHP

#2 in runs scored, #4 in OBA, pretty much top five in the majors across the board versus LHP. Except home runs.
They don't hit many homers off of LHP, they score all those runs by stringing baserunners together, and there in lies the problem.
The lefty they have to face is Chris Sale, and you just don't get many oppurtunities in a nine inning game to get many baserunners on off of Sale.

It doesn't matter if you got it from the horses mouth or not that Carrasco is in for a bad outing, history shows the top of the White Sox order has never had a problem with Carrasco in the past, especially Melke, and Adam Eaton drives him nuts too.
However both of them are Punch and Judy hitters, they are scrappy hitters that do not hit for power.
Take away Abreu and the whole White Sox team doesn't hit for much power.

What I am trying to say here is 7 runs total (I know the iine is 6.5, but you need 7 to win) in this game is doable, however don't count on the long ball to get you there, for this total to hit, you are going to need the Indians to string 3 runs off of Sale and the White Sox to get four from Carrasco.
If Carrasco does get pulled, the Indians have a very tidy bullpen. Not lock down, but top 8 in the majors.
And know this, Chris Sale never rolls over, he's a son of a bitch bulldog that gives a shit, gives a shit on every pitch.
And even though White Sox pen is leaky, Sale usually goes deep into games.

One final though, since Mike Muchlinski umpired first base last night he rotates to behind the plate and gets to call the balls and strikes.
He has umpired home 16 games this year, and the unders have covered 7 times and the overs have covered nine times.

The good news is the average number of total runs scored when Muchinski umps is 7.1
http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpire.as...KE&season=2015

If you like the over, consider White Sox over 3 runs as well.

Best of luck.

Well done.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

baseball totals are never plays of the years.

[RavensFan2k3]

baseball totals are never plays of the years.

Never understood why people say "play of the year". Do you plan on betting everything on this one play and calling it quits till next year?

[jjgold]

There's no such thing as a play of the year it is your play of the day

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Never understood why people say "play of the year". Do you plan on betting everything on this one play and calling it quits till next year?

tout's creation to sell their picks. no one i know ever says i have play of the year today.

[RavensFan2k3]

tout's creation to sell their picks. no one i know ever says i have play of the year today.

Lol right, can't take anyone that says that seriously

[RavensFan2k3]

There's no such thing as a play of the year it is your play of the day

Right, so say that

[Jaug]

Never understood why people say "play of the year". Do you plan on betting everything on this one play and calling it quits till next year?

It means I will bet 3-5 times my normal bet size on this game. Thank me later.

[buckeyez1fan]

My two cents.
It's not that bad of a bet.
Having said that it's hardly play of the year material.
Crap, it's not even play of the day material.

You can make a case for both sides of the coin.

Why it's a decent play.
Cleveland is a very, very good offensive team versus left handed pitching.

MLB rankings versus LHP

#2 in runs scored, #4 in OBA, pretty much top five in the majors across the board versus LHP. Except home runs.
They don't hit many homers off of LHP, they score all those runs by stringing baserunners together, and there in lies the problem.
The lefty they have to face is Chris Sale, and you just don't get many oppurtunities in a nine inning game to get many baserunners on off of Sale.

It doesn't matter if you got it from the horses mouth or not that Carrasco is in for a bad outing, history shows the top of the White Sox order has never had a problem with Carrasco in the past, especially Melke, and Adam Eaton drives him nuts too.
However both of them are Punch and Judy hitters, they are scrappy hitters that do not hit for power.
Take away Abreu and the whole White Sox team doesn't hit for much power.

What I am trying to say here is 7 runs total (I know the iine is 6.5, but you need 7 to win) in this game is doable, however don't count on the long ball to get you there, for this total to hit, you are going to need the Indians to string 3 runs off of Sale and the White Sox to get four from Carrasco.
If Carrasco does get pulled, the Indians have a very tidy bullpen. Not lock down, but top 8 in the majors.
And know this, Chris Sale never rolls over, he's a son of a bitch bulldog that gives a shit, gives a shit on every pitch.
And even though White Sox pen is leaky, Sale usually goes deep into games.

One final though, since Mike Muchlinski umpired first base last night he rotates to behind the plate and gets to call the balls and strikes.
He has umpired home 16 games this year, and the unders have covered 7 times and the overs have covered nine times.

The good news is the average number of total runs scored when Muchinski umps is 7.1
http://www.statfox.com/mlb/umpire.as...KE&season=2015

If you like the over, consider White Sox over 3 runs as well.

Best of luck.

Indians aren't a great offensive team vs lefties lol

I know for a fact the Indians best hitter Jason Kipnis cant hit lefties to save his life.

Aside from Brantley and maybe Rayburn who is a platoon player, the Indians don't hit lefties very well.

Did any of you watch the Indians vs LHP Quintana last night? Complete game shut out!

The Indians obviously aren't hitting LHP right now and were dominated last time they faced Sale.

May 18

vs CLE

W 2-1

8.0

4

1

1

0

2

7

I'm an Indians fan and I'm pulling for a win here but this game is definitely not the play of the year. If Carrasco(one of the most inconsistent pitchers all year) pitches well, its likely under 6.

[RavensFan2k3]

It means I will bet 3-5 times my normal bet size on this game. Thank me later.

Okay goodluck man

[buckeyez1fan]

If you like the over, consider White Sox over 3 runs as well.

Best of luck.

I do agree that this is the best play.

[stevenash]

Indians aren't a great offensive team vs lefties lol

OK, Nashy just got called out.
Sigh.
I guess I have to go and defend myself.

RK	TEAM	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Texas	75	1182	138	276	50	6	35	443	130	0.234	0.292	0.375	0.667
2	Cleveland	81	1137	137	296	70	3	22	438	134	0.26	0.337	0.385	0.722
3	NY Yankees	80	970	132	236	56	4	32	396	126	0.243	0.322	0.408	0.73
4	Minnesota	69	997	130	251	40	6	26	381	122	0.252	0.308	0.382	0.69
5	Kansas City	78	1117	126	302	60	4	21	433	123	0.27	0.322	0.388	0.71

As a collective unit, which is fancy speak for as a team, Indians hit have scored the second most runs in the majors when facing a lefty.
I don't care if you are a saber-math geek, or old school baseball die hard, you can not win if you do not score and fact of the matter is the Indians score runs versus left.

Once again, Indians against left are top 2 in runs scored, top 4 in OBA, never mind, here the LHP link.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...tting/split/31

You are cherry picking out one game, from 2 months ago, doesn't work like that, the fact of the matter is all season they are amongt the team leaders in almost every LH team stat except homers. (which I pointed out)

Yes, like Chris Young, Raburn is a lefty specialist.
Now .265 will not get you to Cooperstown, but Kipnis hits .265 vs. LHP - that is hardly "can't hit lefties to save his life"
League average is .252

Brandon Moss hits lefty well.
Brantley hits lefty well
So does David Murphy.

Now you want to tell me Indians used to suck ass against LHP, I am all aboard, this year, they are a very good unit against LHP.

p.s. piece of advice, don't put words in my mouth, did not call them a great offensive team against LHP, I said very good.
Big difference.

Best of luck tonight.

[Jaug]

Top EU book still keeping odds on under high. Not a coincidence.

[stevenash]

^
Hope you hit it.
I won't wager it, but I'll root it home for you.

(p.s. here's a barking underdog you might want to consider-Shelby Miller is +180, that is a number too good to refuse)

[pjj77]

kipnis and murphy aint even in the lineup.

white sox only have 3 guys that can hit righties.

indians have brantley, raburn, moss, and urshela.

[stevenash]

kipnis and murphy aint even in the lineup.

white sox only have 3 guys that can hit righties.

indians have brantley, raburn, moss, and urshela.

I am talking over all for 2015, not just for tonight, of course you have to check the lineup before each and every game you wager.

yeesh

[Jeffie]

^
Hope you hit it.
I won't wager it, but I'll root it home for you.

(p.s. here's a barking underdog you might want to consider-Shelby Miller is +180, that is a number too good to refuse)

Couldn't pull the trigger but def a gift at +180.

[Alex Vaile]

Wow what a start! Guess ur euro connects knew something 5 runs first half inning!

[Rich Boy]

[Jeffie]

Wooo! now if only the fukin Rays would comeback..

[Blackballer]

Good job!

[Jaug]

Thanks boys

[Yazworm91]

OK, Nashy just got called out.
Sigh.
I guess I have to go and defend myself.

RK	TEAM	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Texas	75	1182	138	276	50	6	35	443	130	0.234	0.292	0.375	0.667
2	Cleveland	81	1137	137	296	70	3	22	438	134	0.26	0.337	0.385	0.722
3	NY Yankees	80	970	132	236	56	4	32	396	126	0.243	0.322	0.408	0.73
4	Minnesota	69	997	130	251	40	6	26	381	122	0.252	0.308	0.382	0.69
5	Kansas City	78	1117	126	302	60	4	21	433	123	0.27	0.322	0.388	0.71

As a collective unit, which is fancy speak for as a team, Indians hit have scored the second most runs in the majors when facing a lefty.
I don't care if you are a saber-math geek, or old school baseball die hard, you can not win if you do not score and fact of the matter is the Indians score runs versus left.

Once again, Indians against left are top 2 in runs scored, top 4 in OBA, never mind, here the LHP link.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...tting/split/31

You are cherry picking out one game, from 2 months ago, doesn't work like that, the fact of the matter is all season they are amongt the team leaders in almost every LH team stat except homers. (which I pointed out)

Yes, like Chris Young, Raburn is a lefty specialist.
Now .265 will not get you to Cooperstown, but Kipnis hits .265 vs. LHP - that is hardly "can't hit lefties to save his life"
League average is .252

Brandon Moss hits lefty well.
Brantley hits lefty well
So does David Murphy.

Now you want to tell me Indians used to suck ass against LHP, I am all aboard, this year, they are a very good unit against LHP.

p.s. piece of advice, don't put words in my mouth, did not call them a great offensive team against LHP, I said very good.
Big difference.

Best of luck tonight.

Thanks for showing these stats. The argument could be made that yes they are 2nd in runs scored against lefties but they've also had 28% more at bats against lefties against the MLB avg. They are also 13-22 against lefties this season. I wouldn't classify that as a good unit against LHP.