1. 07-06-15 08:05 AM #1
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    MLB - Monday, 7/6/15

    6 MLB Plays Monday

    Reds +138 (Heritage)
    Padres +142 (Heritage)
    Twins +104 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
    Mets +141 (Heritage)


    YTD: 296-271-14, +54.28
    Points Awarded:

    zero86ea gave LT Profits 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Ra77er gave LT Profits 7 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 07-06-15 08:15 AM #2
    jeffjam_
    jeffjam_'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-14
    Posts: 107
    Betpoints: 4483

    LT, do you have ML/RL/Totals splits of your record? Do you expect some kind of regression given how well you've been doing? Thanks.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 07-06-15 08:23 AM #3
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffjam_ View Post
    LT, do you have ML/RL/Totals splits of your record? Do you expect some kind of regression given how well you've been doing? Thanks.
    Unfortunately no and I don't feel like taking the time to get the splits. Instinctively I think I am doing well in totals. Also I do not think I have played more than three Run Lines all year, so that part of it is irrelevant. As for regression, I don't know because this is the first year after tweaking my model.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 07-06-15 08:27 AM #4
    jeffjam_
    jeffjam_'s Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-02-14
    Posts: 107
    Betpoints: 4483

    All right, thanks. Anyway, for your own sake, I think it would be wise to start recording those splits, after all how else you would know in which department your model is flawed if that would happen.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 07-06-15 08:35 AM #5
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Unfortunately no and I don't feel like taking the time to get the splits. Instinctively I think I am doing well in totals. Also I do not think I have played more than three Run Lines all year, so that part of it is irrelevant. As for regression, I don't know because this is the first year after tweaking my model.
    Gotta love these guys questioning success. LOL.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 07-06-15 08:36 AM #6
    dirtycash66
    dirtycash66's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-13-12
    Posts: 2,952
    Betpoints: 18460

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    6 MLB Plays Monday

    Reds +138 (Heritage)
    Padres +142 (Heritage)
    Twins +104 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / White Sox UNDER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Tigers / Mariners UNDER 7 +108 (5 Dimes)
    Mets +141 (Heritage)


    YTD: 296-271-14, +54.28
    Under & Underdog monday. I'm all in. I can see a profit being made today.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 07-06-15 09:13 AM #7
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,254
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffjam_ View Post
    LT, do you have ML/RL/Totals splits of your record? Do you expect some kind of regression given how well you've been doing? Thanks.
    what a fukkin asshole you are for asking LT if he expects a regression.

    dude WTF
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 07-06-15 09:26 AM #8
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    what a fukkin asshole you are for asking LT if he expects a regression.

    dude WTF
    Hey Bear, tell us how you really feel???
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 07-06-15 09:31 AM #9
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,374
    Betpoints: 18344

    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Hey Bear, tell us how you really feel???
    Lol you have to admit that was a pretty ignorant question to ask.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 07-06-15 09:33 AM #10
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Lol you have to admit that was a pretty ignorant question to ask.
    Didn't I allude to the same thing in post #5 ???? Just wasn't as "diplomatic" as Bear. LOL.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 07-06-15 09:34 AM #11
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,374
    Betpoints: 18344

    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Didn't I allude to the same thing in post #5 ???? Just wasn't as "diplomatic" as Bear. LOL.
    Lmao, didn't see that post
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 07-06-15 09:37 AM #12
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Lmao, didn't see that post
    Hope you took the "reverse jinx" last night ??? I saw this morning a bunch of guys questioning that under wager in the LAA game after I signed off. You guys know damn right well I couldn't hit an under play if I had to. LOL. I even posted the same thing Friday and Saturday, when I wgare under, QUICK, go the other way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 07-06-15 09:47 AM #13
    PorkChop
    PorkChop's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-08
    Posts: 8,195
    Betpoints: 576

    Padres have zero business being anything at +130 or over.

    P.O.D. Padres +142
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 07-06-15 10:28 AM #14
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffjam_ View Post
    All right, thanks. Anyway, for your own sake, I think it would be wise to start recording those splits, after all how else you would know in which department your model is flawed if that would happen.
    OK splits are on the way and you will see that unit-wise, it is just about an even split ignoring RLs.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 07-06-15 10:31 AM #15
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    Because jeffjam_ asked for it :

    Code:
    ML	166	171	3	27.10
Total	129	98	11	27.56
RL	1	2	0	-0.38
Total	296	271	14	54.28
    Code:
    Game	286	262	9	53.19
5-inn	10	9	5	1.09
Total	296	271	14	54.28
    Code:
    Game ML    	163	167	0	27.65
Game Ttl	122	93	9	25.92
Game RL     	1	2	0	-0.38
Total          	286	262	9	53.19
    Code:
    5-inn ML	3	4	3	-0.55
5-inn Ttl	7	5	2	1.64
Total          	10	9	5	1.09
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 07-06-15 10:42 AM #16
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 394,888
    Betpoints: 8

    I never realized LT a technician bettor

    I thought this guy was just an action shooter

    Great work LT
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 07-06-15 10:55 AM #17
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,374
    Betpoints: 18344

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    I never realized LT a technician bettor

    I thought this guy was just an action shooter

    Great work LT
    you can't be serious. He's the most technical of all technicians lol
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 07-06-15 11:06 AM #18
    Big Bear
    Love your neighbor
    Big Bear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-11
    Posts: 43,254
    Betpoints: 14

    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    you can't be serious. He's the most technical of all technicians lol
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 07-06-15 12:06 PM #19
    BeanTownClown88
    BeanTownClown88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-08-13
    Posts: 1,961
    Betpoints: 4131

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffjam_ View Post
    All right, thanks. Anyway, for your own sake, I think it would be wise to start recording those splits, after all how else you would know in which department your model is flawed if that would happen.

    He's up 50+ units..maybe he should just focus on what he's doing lol
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 07-06-15 12:09 PM #20
    dirtycash66
    dirtycash66's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-13-12
    Posts: 2,952
    Betpoints: 18460

    What I'm trying to figure out is why all you pole smokers and chicken lickers are so damn interested in LT's formula just sit back, tail him and make this money……Too easy, thats what i'm doing.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: emoney
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote 1
  21. 07-06-15 12:11 PM #21
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    What I'm trying to figure out is why all you pole smokers and chicken lickers are so damn interested in LT's formula just sit back, tail him and make this money……Too easy, thats what i'm doing.
    NIce talk !!! I liked your Halle Berry avatar better than this one. LOL.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 07-06-15 12:39 PM #22
    ridindirty
    ridindirty's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-15
    Posts: 53
    Betpoints: 67

    Hey Lt, how about Houston. Keuchel has been a beast in his last few starts
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 07-06-15 12:49 PM #23
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    Quote Originally Posted by ridindirty View Post
    Hey Lt, how about Houston. Keuchel has been a beast in his last few starts
    I get Cleveland 52% (-108) at home so really see no value either way.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 07-06-15 01:08 PM #24
    James Marques
    James Marques's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-04-14
    Posts: 1,605
    Betpoints: 3692

    Nice work LT!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 07-06-15 01:20 PM #25
    dirtycash66
    dirtycash66's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-13-12
    Posts: 2,952
    Betpoints: 18460

    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    NIce talk !!! I liked your Halle Berry avatar better than this one. LOL.
    lol i just might bring her back, i think this new avatar brings out the worst in me.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 07-06-15 01:43 PM #26
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by dirtycash66 View Post
    lol i just might bring her back, i think this new avatar brings out the worst in me.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 07-06-15 02:00 PM #27
    ridindirty
    ridindirty's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-24-15
    Posts: 53
    Betpoints: 67

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I get Cleveland 52% (-108) at home so really see no value either way.
    Ok

    How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 07-06-15 02:16 PM #28
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,428
    Betpoints: 578

    Please dont bet the Reds LT...there is no Value there at +138....Dont say i didnt try to warn you lol
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 07-06-15 02:17 PM #29
    PaperTrail07
    MMA is the most pure sport
    PaperTrail07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-08
    Posts: 20,428
    Betpoints: 578

    Against Seattle....100%.....they dont see him often
    Quote Originally Posted by ridindirty View Post
    Ok

    How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 07-06-15 02:32 PM #30
    Matty Mo
    Matty Mo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-30-13
    Posts: 267
    Betpoints: 708

    I'd stay away from the Padres... take a look at Shields last couple starts on the road and get back to me. Pirates all day, but will be a close one most likely.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 07-06-15 02:46 PM #31
    Alex Vaile
    Alex Vaile's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-19-14
    Posts: 3,724
    Betpoints: 779

    Hey LT question for you. What's up with Eric Surkamp being -225? What does your model say about the Dodgers tonite?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 07-06-15 03:22 PM #32
    RavensFan2k3
    Handicappin' like I'm Trappin'
    RavensFan2k3's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-12
    Posts: 17,374
    Betpoints: 18344

    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Please dont bet the Reds LT...there is no Value there at +138....Dont say i didnt try to warn you lol
    Yeah I see alot of people on Reds, and I just don't get it all. I'm actually leaning Washington
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 07-06-15 03:46 PM #33
    44 Mag
    44 Mag's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-14-13
    Posts: 34,431
    Betpoints: 9277

    Quote Originally Posted by ridindirty View Post

    Ok

    How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?
    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Against Seattle....100%.....they dont see him often
    PLus, I posted in my thread, don't get the 7 for a total??? If these guys keep pitching that way, the over looks like a gift, unless someone thinks Seattle can't hit ??? I don't know, it looks awful appetizing, of course LT is smarter than I am ???? Maybe he will weigh in on the subject for us.



    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 07-06-15 04:01 PM #34
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    Quote Originally Posted by ridindirty View Post
    Ok

    How about the Tigers? I know Simon has been shacky last couple of sharts but there has to be some sort of value at +150ish?
    Model favors Seattle heavily at 65% (-186), Iwakuma grades out light years better than Simon. So Mariners actually show a bit of value in the -160s, but I do not lay those kinds of odds.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 07-06-15 04:03 PM #35
    LT Profits
    VIP Moderator
    LT Profits's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,967
    Betpoints: 4782

    Quote Originally Posted by PaperTrail07 View Post
    Please dont bet the Reds LT...there is no Value there at +138....Dont say i didnt try to warn you lol
    Washington is now -125 at Pinny so I crushed the line as of now. Let's see what happens.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
12 Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Baseball Betting | Next Thread »