[ledjend]

2012 - +90
2013 - +111
2014 - +117


Whoever you're following right now - stop! Unless they're making you 100 units every 3 months, there's just no reason to even look back - this is the only thread you need. It is a living, breathing cash cow - so make sure you subscribe so you don't miss any money!

Now, if you're wondering who I am and why I'm so confident - let's just say I've been doing this for over 20 years and this is the greatest system I've ever seen. The light bulb went off about 10 days ago right before I left for my honeymoon. We got back on Weds night and I immediately began running numbers.

Three seasons is all I've had time to get through so far, but I'll continue testing tomorrow. I have no doubts it will be more of the same. All three seasons were virtually identical in terms of final results.

I simply cannot stress enough the fact that I've been doing this for more than 20 years - point being, I know the difference between a diamond and cubic zirconia. And this is a fu**in diamond!

So if you're here to hate you better hate now, because the money starts rolling in today!

For those who are with me, here's how it works:


If you're familiar with chase systems, that's what this is, 3 game chases (although I like to think of it as making small investments). Each chase is called a series. Each series consists of 3 games. The first game is the A bet. The second game is the B bet. The third game is the C bet. If we lose the 3rd game, the series is over.

As we chase games, we're also chasing our money. So when we lose an A bet, you need to bet enough on the B bet to win back your losses from the A bet, plus whatever you were trying to win with the A bet. When we lose a B bet, you need to bet enough on the C bet to win back your losses from the A and B bets, plus whatever you were trying to win with the A bet.

In 2014, there were 5 C bet losses. In 2013, there were 6 C bet losses. And in 2012, again there were 5 C bet losses. The C bet losses average out to about 18 units per loss (17.69 to be exact). The highest C bet loss cost 23.5 units and came in 2012. The lowest C bet loss cost 14 units and came in 2014.

Over the last 3 years there have been a total of 612 series, which averages out to 204 series each season. In 2014, there were 207 series - 202 wins, 5 losses. In 2013, there were 220 series - 214 wins, 6 losses. In 2012, there were 185 series - 180 wins, 5 losses.

So far this year has had 8 series - 7 wins, 1 loss. The loss actually just came tonight on St Louis. It cost 14.5 units. So as of this writing, we are down 7.5 units. Which means there's a shit ton of money to be made!

Anyway, I'm beat and going to bed. I doubt I covered everything so questions are welcome. There are 4 new series starting tomorrow. First game is at 215 EST. I'll try to post by noon. If you're serious about making money, you better be here!

[Hamburg]

Sounds legit I'm in!

[VegasPlayer]

Good luck. How many B & C bets each year?

[ledjend]

Good luck. How many B & C bets each year?

2014
202 wins (5 losses)
140 on A - 68%
50 on B - 75%
12 on C - 71%

2013
214 wins (6 losses)
147 on A - 67%
48 on B - 66%
19 on C - 76%

2012
180 wins (5 losses)
121 on A - 65%
46 on B - 72%
13 on C - 72%

TOTAL
596 wins (16 losses)
408 on A - 67%
144 on B - 71%
44 on C - 73%

[ledjend]

Sounds legit I'm in!

Nice!

[VegasPlayer]

Thanks ledjend

[ledjend]

Ok, so as I was saying there's already been a loss this season which took place last night. So the current season's numbers are:

7-1 = -7.5 units (lost 14.5 on StL)
6 - A wins (86%)
1 - B win (50%)
0 - C wins (0%)


Today, there are 4 A bets. They are:

1. St Louis - currently -190, play Money Line (215 est)
2. KC - currently -158, play Money Line (715 est)
3. LAD - currently -165, play Money Line (715 est)
4. Arizona - currently -164, play Money Line (1010 est)


I've used Covers.com for all of the data testing so I'll continue to use them for record keeping.

*Important note - all teams who are a -131 favorite or better are to be played on the money line. If our team is -130 or lower, play the run line. You will no doubt need to have access to an alternate run line for some future plays.

Good luck today!

[ledjend]

Thanks ledjend

My pleasure brother!

[bob6199]

HMMMMM we'll see, best approach, wait till he loses an A game and bet B & C, it's only a 2 game chase, so if he is bluffing, your going to be ok,

[keel44]

Whenever I see a system that uses a 3 game chase, I first want to see if you show a profit over an extended period of time. You do indeed show that. When you have a profit, that means somewhere during your chase you must hit at a higher rate than even.

Your average odds per play is -165. This is according to your average series loss of 17.69.

Because you hit at a higher rate than even - somewhere, you will profit flat betting during that somewhere. Looking at your data, you easily, maybe suspiciously, profit every step along the way:

A bets 408 wins 204 losses = flat bet profit: 71.4 units
B bets 144 wins 60 losses = flat bet profit 45 units
C bets 44 wins 16 losses = flat bet profit 17.60 units
ALL bets 596 wins 280 losses = flat bet profit 134 units

Now you will profit any ol' way you wanna bet it. It all depends on your unit size.

If you 3 game chase to win 2% of your total bankroll, you would increase your bankroll 636 percent during these 3 years (318*2)

If you flat bet to win 8% of your total bankroll, you would increase your bankroll 1072 percent during these 3 years (134*8)

Flat betting seems easier, safer, and more profitable. Chase systems were invented when you don't have an edge. It seems you have an edge here and a BIG one. Just use flat betting or a Kelly method.

[keel44]

You would be up 2.05 units coming into tonight flat betting and those units would be at 8%. Instead you are down 7+ units at ?%

[bob6199]

Can you tell us the parameters behind this chase? I know ppl who can backtest it even further, then the past 3 years.

[ledjend]

Whenever I see a system that uses a 3 game chase, I first want to see if you show a profit over an extended period of time. You do indeed show that. When you have a profit, that means somewhere during your chase you must hit at a higher rate than even.

Your average odds per play is -165. This is according to your average series loss of 17.69.

Because you hit at a higher rate than even - somewhere, you will profit flat betting during that somewhere. Looking at your data, you easily, maybe suspiciously, profit every step along the way:

A bets 408 wins 204 losses = flat bet profit: 71.4 units
B bets 144 wins 60 losses = flat bet profit 45 units
C bets 44 wins 16 losses = flat bet profit 17.60 units
ALL bets 596 wins 280 losses = flat bet profit 134 units

Now you will profit any ol' way you wanna bet it. It all depends on your unit size.

If you 3 game chase to win 2% of your total bankroll, you would increase your bankroll 636 percent during these 3 years (318*2)

If you flat bet to win 8% of your total bankroll, you would increase your bankroll 1072 percent during these 3 years (134*8)

Flat betting seems easier, safer, and more profitable. Chase systems were invented when you don't have an edge. It seems you have an edge here and a BIG one. Just use flat betting or a Kelly method.

How can I argue with less risk and more profit? After all, that's the name of the game!

Awesome post, Keel - I read it last night but wanted to sleep on it before responding.

1072 percent to 636 isn't even close - but in reality, it would be a much bigger disparity if you continue adjusting percentages as your bankroll grows.

I in no way shape or form think that I know everything - so I'm always completely open to new ideas...and this one makes too much sense to ignore.

As of today, I'm flat betting - and will adjust the record keeping accordingly.

Thanks again for sharing!

[ledjend]

Can you tell us the parameters behind this chase? I know ppl who can backtest it even further, then the past 3 years.

No lol. Be patient brother. Finishing 2011 this morning and hopefully 2010.

[keel44]

Yes you are right. Readjust the 8% or whatever you choose daily. When you have a losing day you risk less and when you have a winning day you risk more. You would compounding the profits for a greater increase.

It would actually be mind-boggling the amount you could win if you start with $1000 @ 8% unit size.

[ledjend]

*CHANGE TO FLAT BETTING*

9-4 (+2.4)


Today:

1. NYY - currently -138, play Money Line (105 est)
2. KC - currently -152, play Money Line (210 est)
3. CHW - currently -102, play Run Line +1.5 at -165 (210 est)
4. StL- currently -177, play Money Line (215 est)


Good Luck!

[keel44]

10-4 going into tonight

12-6 after tonight. Isn't this correct?

[bob6199]

list both, 1 as flat betting, 1 as a system bet, keep track of both, see which one makes more money.

[ledjend]

10-4 going into tonight

12-6 after tonight. Isn't this correct?

We were both off.
Was actually 10-5 - now 12-7.
Got 8 hours of sleep last night so should be a little sharper today.

[ledjend]

list both, 1 as flat betting, 1 as a system bet, keep track of both, see which one makes more money.

I like it.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/5

Flat Betting (Entered day 10-5, +1.75u)

- NYY +1.5 at -220 - Loss
- CHW +1.5 at -165 - Loss
- St L - Win
- KC - Win

2-2, -1.85u on day

Year to date - 12-7, -.1u


Chase (Entered day 9-1, -5.5u)

- vs TB A bet - Loss
- vs Bal A bet - Loss
- vs SD A bet - Win
- vs Min B bet - Win

Year to date - 11-1, -3.5u



I'll be back around 600 est to post plays for tonight!

[keel44]

Yankees was not a run line bet.....right?

*CHANGE TO FLAT BETTING*

9-4 (+2.4)


Today:

1. NYY - currently -138, play Money Line (105 est)
2. KC - currently -152, play Money Line (210 est)
3. CHW - currently -102, play Run Line +1.5 at -165 (210 est)
4. StL- currently -177, play Money Line (215 est)


Good Luck!

[keel44]

list both, 1 as flat betting, 1 as a system bet, keep track of both, see which one makes more money.

Don't forget that the flat betting will be at a higher unit size than the chase unit. I say you could go as high as 8% and still be safe. This is all based on his past data anyway.

[blackHIPPY]

in.

[ledjend]

Yankees was not a run line bet.....right?

Yea they closed at -129 on Covers.com - anything under -130 is a Run Line play. I had them at -220 on sportsbetting.com. If you didn't take them at +1.5 you lucked out.

I'll try to wait as long as I can to post plays so we're at least in the ballpark with the closing lines - but you guys are definitely going to have to do some monitoring of your own. I normally don't place my bets until right before the first pitch.

[ledjend]

in.

Nice!

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/6


- Cin A bet - currently +111, play Run Line +1.5 at -195 (705 est)
- Hou A bet - currently +108, play Run Line +1.5 at -205 (710 est)
- Min B bet (vs Balt) - currently +104, play Run Line +1.5 at -165 (810 est)
- KC B bet (vs TB) - currently -131, play Money Line (810 est)





Be sure to follow that KC bet on Covers.com. It was over -140 not too long ago. At -130 or lower the play should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

Good luck tonight!

[superbowl3056]

TODAY 7/6


- Cin A bet - currently +111, play Run Line +1.5 at -195 (705 est)
- Hou A bet - currently +108, play Run Line +1.5 at -205 (710 est)
- Min B bet (vs Balt) - currently +104, play Run Line +1.5 at -165 (810 est)
- KC B bet (vs TB) - currently -131, play Money Line (810 est)





Be sure to follow that KC bet on Covers.com. It was over -140 not too long ago. At -130 or lower the play should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

Good luck tonight!

So at odds under -130, you are playing the -1.5 rl or +1.5 rl?

[sportsbetter21]

So how do you determine series chases?
Not to be rude but to change your system from a chase to flat betting just because its profitable after a back test seems a bit sketchy. If your A games start to tank and are only hitting 50% at -165 are you going to say "Chase the series, its more profitable"

Im just sayin

[ledjend]

So at odds under -130, you are playing the -1.5 rl or +1.5 rl?

+1.5.

[ledjend]

So how do you determine series chases?
Not to be rude but to change your system from a chase to flat betting just because its profitable after a back test seems a bit sketchy. If your A games start to tank and are only hitting 50% at -165 are you going to say "Chase the series, its more profitable"

Im just sayin

How is it sketchy? It's more profit with less risk!

And you can play whichever way you choose. I'm posting results for both.

[bob6199]

use a books closing line, it's easier for all of us to have the same play, like going by pinnacle's or 5dime's line. Just my 2 cents, doesn't matter today as KC was postponed.

[bob6199]

3-0, All RL plays won the on ML

[keel44]

So how do you determine series chases?
Not to be rude but to change your system from a chase to flat betting just because its profitable after a back test seems a bit sketchy. If your A games start to tank and are only hitting 50% at -165 are you going to say "Chase the series, its more profitable"

Im just sayin

If his A bet tanks, he will certainly run the risk of failing on the chase version as well. Assuming all of his bets will average -165, he has shown a substantial edge. Flat betting would be better.

If it starts to tank, thank god you would be flat betting.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/6

Flat Betting (Entered day 12-7, -.1u)

- Hou - Win
- Cin - Win
- Min (vs Bal) - Win

3-0, +3u on day

Year to date - 15-7, +2.9u


Chase (Entered day 11-1, -3.5u)

- vs Bal B bet - Win
- Hou A bet - Win
- Cin A bet - Win

Year to date - 14-1, -.5u



Be back shortly with today.