1. 06-29-15 11:34 AM #1
    jjgold
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    Phils/KC Live Dogs

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  2. 06-29-15 12:03 PM #2
    Big Bear
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    will fade both
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  3. 06-29-15 01:01 PM #3
    jjgold
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    Bear I dare you to fade me

    I've been a very consistent handicapper if you look at my spreadsheet and I think it would be a very dangerous decision on your part to go against me here
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  4. 06-29-15 01:05 PM #4
    KVB
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    KC not as live as you would think.

    And here's one even the sharpest of stats gatherers may not be able to generate...how many times does an actual live dog that is in the first spot on the betting rotation pay the bettor?

    I suppose you have to know what "live dog" means first, and that probably varies, especially among posters in this Forum.

    Good Luck

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  5. 06-29-15 01:06 PM #5
    kidcudi92
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    jj dont bet live MLB its not for you
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  6. 06-29-15 01:08 PM #6
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Bear I dare you to fade me

    I've been a very consistent handicapper if you look at my spreadsheet and I think it would be a very dangerous decision on your part to go against me here






    can't back these 2....
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  7. 06-29-15 01:27 PM #7
    jjgold
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    Bear They are momentum plays
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  8. 06-29-15 01:28 PM #8
    Ra77er
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    Good luck today
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  9. 06-29-15 01:55 PM #9
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Bear They are momentum plays
    what else do you like ?
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  10. 06-29-15 02:18 PM #10
    jjgold
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    I only like two plays tonight as the board is very small and I just don't like the matchups
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  11. 06-29-15 03:26 PM #11
    Ra77er
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    KC not as live as you would think.

    And here's one even the sharpest of stats gatherers may not be able to generate...how many times does an actual live dog that is in the first spot on the betting rotation pay the bettor?

    I suppose you have to know what "live dog" means first, and that probably varies, especially among posters in this Forum.

    Good Luck


    Number not good enough on KC.

    Let me ask this, if you could get KC +130 would you bet it?
    Last edited by Ra77er; 06-29-15 at 03:38 PM.
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  12. 06-29-15 05:11 PM #12
    jjgold
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    Kc one of better teams in baseball

    It never hurts to bet them as a dog
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  13. 06-29-15 05:48 PM #13
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ra77er View Post
    Number not good enough on KC.

    Let me ask this, if you could get KC +130 would you bet it?
    Probably not. It all depends on circumstances. Right now, in this situation, if the line suddenly moved to KC +130, I would, for various reasons, actually consider the other side.

    If it had opened at +130 or even +140 it would be interesting.

    That said I simply don't like KC to pay out tonight. Money talks, and I suppose the any team could be bought at the right price, but that can neglect an important part of market analysis...why is the price where it is?

    Often times we see a lag time between a team’s actual performance and the reflected market price. Because of this, KC has recently been off in price…of course, this depends on who they are playing and how that team is also being “priced.”

    I believe the market is catching up to or even has caught up to KC. Because most bettors can’t create their own valid money line and because KC is an underdog again, many bettors don’t see that the market has caught up…”is catching up” may be a better way to put it, leaves me open for a little error.

    The bettors who sold out KC yesterday may turn around and buy them today while those same type of guys will look for a let down from Houston after squeaking by yesterday.

    Generally, this type of betting behavior, while sometimes successful in the short term, will hurt the bettor over the long haul.

    Finally, the concept of live dog should be addressed. I’ve written enough for this post, but perhaps readers should make a list of the things that actually make up a “live dog.” These would be things like price (obviously needs to be an underdog), home road, pitchers, etc.

    Is KC really in that type of spot tonight, or is it just perceived?

    Good Luck

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  14. 06-29-15 05:55 PM #14
    Ra77er
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    thank you KVB. Never bump this thread ever again.
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  15. 06-29-15 07:40 PM #15
    LEOLEO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post






    can't back these 2....
    win or lose


    PRIMO IS WITH BEAR here
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  16. 06-29-15 08:22 PM #16
    birdman24
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  17. 06-29-15 08:47 PM #17
    jjgold
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    men you guys were right

    Both going to lose
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  18. 06-29-15 08:52 PM #18
    GT21Megatron
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    men you guys were right

    Both going to lose
    Anymore late night gems/ sharpe plays?
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  19. 06-30-15 12:05 AM #19
    jjgold
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    I'll have a better card tomorrow


    I tried to push some plays and look what happened to the betting board was too small
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  20. 06-30-15 12:33 AM #20
    ithinkiamgood
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    keep em coming Baldy
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  21. 07-01-15 07:36 AM #21
    Big Bear
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    anybody on these 2 squads today?
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  22. 07-01-15 08:08 AM #22
    jjgold
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    Bear it might be a good idea to come back with them
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  23. 07-02-15 08:13 AM #23
    Big Bear
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    Chad Billingsley on the mound today. He could be worth a look.


    Royals a favorite with Chris Young on the bump but he should get a victory today.
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  24. 07-02-15 06:16 PM #24
    KVB
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    Sitting on Kansas City -148 with Young tonight. The spurt of underdog days are over and bettors still can't figure out KC.

    To some this number too sharp to decide, to others, there indications to buy.

    We got this.

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  25. 07-02-15 06:23 PM #25
    jjgold
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    KC due

    Chasing dangerous though
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  26. 07-02-15 06:25 PM #26
    Ra77er
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    KVB I concur and took them at -145.

    Also watching Casey Kassum in west virginia
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