[terrortwylight]

OK - While I readily admit this may be completely retarded, keep in mind it's just a theory. That's why I need your help.

Washington (-212) @ Philadelphia
Scherzer v Harang

Mad Max went a full 9 innings in each of his last 2 starts. Combined for 26 K's, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB (video game numbers). Date of start 1 = 6/14 @ Milwaukee. Date of start 2 = 6/20 vs Pittsburgh. And I don't need to remind you he nearly went perfect against Pittsburgh, last out was hit by pitch etc etc..

When was the last time a starting pitcher has pitched 18 innings in his last 2 starts? Has it ever happened? I'm sure it has..

And if it has happened, how did he fair in his next start?

Again, I realize this may be completely retarded, but again, it's just a theory. Maybe someone can find this info through SDQL.

Thanks for at least hearing me out.

[posey]

Databases go only back to 2004. It was much more common in the times of Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, ...
Nonetheless you see this a few times every season. This season e.g. Buehrle, Price, Scherzer. Last season Cueto, Perez, Porcello, Kluber, Kershaw...


Since 2004 it happened 58 times, that a pitcher went 9 innings 2 games in a row and his team won both games. The next game was won 31 times, lost 27 times. Over is 33-25 in those.

Simply looking for starters who have thrown 9 innings 2 games in a row, their teams are 38-38 in their next starts. Over is 43-32 in those.

[terrortwylight]

Posey you are the man. Thank you so much.

Would it be possible for you to spend an hour one lazy weekend to teach me a little bit about this SDQL stuff? I'm totally intrigued by it but I do not understand it at all.

[posey]

I don't know everything about SQDL either but if you want to know something send me a PM and we'll see if I can help.

[terrortwylight]

I don't know everything about SQDL either but if you want to know something send me a PM and we'll see if I can help.

Cool, I will keep that in mind. I'll try it again tomorrow after I cap the games and I'm sure I'll have plenty of questions.

[terrortwylight]

Was is also on the road tomorrow.. meaning you get all 9 innings guaranteed should you just to play the RL, you get all 9 innings of at bats.. It may be weird but I try to never play a 1.5 line on a home team because I want my guaranteed 9 innings of at bats.

Plus the total is set low on that one right now.. trends Posey provided giving saying slight edge to the overs in both scenarios, and with a total at 6.5 against Harang, Over -125 isn't a nice little price tbh.

Thinking that at the very least I'll mess with that over a little bit. Whether or not I play the Nats RL I'm still a bit undecided.

[MikeyD323]

Hey Terror,
How about the win/loss stat on teams that have won the 3rd game in your scenario with pitchers pitching after 2 - 9 inning games by 2 runs or more. It may be significantly lower than just winning the third game ML. This would mean it may be smartet and of greater value to take the Phils +1 1/2. This way you get the home team, +1 1/2 and you are getting EVEN or +$ as opposed to -$ on the -1 1/2 RL with an away team in this prticular scenario. You follow? May be something to think about.

[44 Mag]

OK - While I readily admit this may be completely retarded, keep in mind it's just a theory. That's why I need your help.

Washington (-212) @ Philadelphia
Scherzer v Harang

Mad Max went a full 9 innings in each of his last 2 starts. Combined for 26 K's, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB (video game numbers). Date of start 1 = 6/14 @ Milwaukee. Date of start 2 = 6/20 vs Pittsburgh. And I don't need to remind you he nearly went perfect against Pittsburgh, last out was hit by pitch etc etc..

When was the last time a starting pitcher has pitched 18 innings in his last 2 starts? Has it ever happened? I'm sure it has..

And if it has happened, how did he fair in his next start?

Again, I realize this may be completely retarded, but again, it's just a theory. Maybe someone can find this info through SDQL.

Thanks for at least hearing me out.

Excellant question. Good responses. My thought is this: I don't expect "Mad Max" to go out and thow another complete game today. but, that being said, stats and old ones at that, how do you go against the "hottest" pitcher in MLB against probably the worst put togther team in the league??? And, he isn't the only guy on the team, they can still hit a little bit as well. Just my two cents. BOL men.

[posey]

All this thinking about don't take home favs -1.5 cause they get no full 9 innings when they win and take a +1.5 on the home dog because they get full 9 innings when they are back is not very reliable IMO. Yes, home favs win less times with at least 2 runs than road favs, but in the end it is not important who wins more often by how many runs, but to pick the right teams to do so.

Bookies KNOW that the home teams don't win as often with the RL as road teams.

Look at those average odds since 2009:
- away fav ML -136.2
- away fav RL +125.9
- home fav ML -154.5
- home fav RL +144.2

You see what I mean? Normally one would expect that the lower the odds on the ML, the lower the odds on the RL. But it's exactly the opposite for away fav ML and RL compared to home fav ML and RL. The home fav RL odds are usually higher although the ML is usually lower.

[MikeyD323]

Hmmm. we got ourselves a pickle here fellas haha

[WildBillCappin]

Hey Terror,
How about the win/loss stat on teams that have won the 3rd game in your scenario with pitchers pitching after 2 - 9 inning games by 2 runs or more. It may be significantly lower than just winning the third game ML. This would mean it may be smartet and of greater value to take the Phils +1 1/2. This way you get the home team, +1 1/2 and you are getting EVEN or +$ as opposed to -$ on the -1 1/2 RL with an away team in this prticular scenario. You follow? May be something to think about.

This is an excellent question. I would love to see this answered.

[EXhoosier10]

Posey you are the man. Thank you so much.

Would it be possible for you to spend an hour one lazy weekend to teach me a little bit about this SDQL stuff? I'm totally intrigued by it but I do not understand it at all.

If you're planning on using it for baseball when teams use different starting pitchers every game, you're going to be wasting your time.

[mrginandtonic]

Has any pitcher thrown 9 innings 3 games in a row?? I guess my question is how does pitcher usually do in that 3rd game. Base on that over/under stat, it probably means he will give up some runs??

[terrortwylight]

Realize this is thread is a couple days old, but if any of you guys see anything the rest of the season that pops out at you as something worth investigating, PLEASE post it here. No question or idea is stupid IMO.

I will try and bump it from time to time to keep it in the forefront so people view it and check out what we're trying to do here. I encourage everybody interested in SDQL or anyone interested in taking advantage of a particular trend to post and participate with us.

I think by identifying potential trends and investigating them, we could all benefit. $$$ is the name of the game.

-terrortwylight