[BuddyBear]

Damn i had a long write up and it got erased

Anyway, the play today for me is:

954: Pittsburgh -110

I like this for a number of reasons. I am not going to go into them all beacause I just had wrote them. Basically, two things one from the subtance/content and the other a more technical consideration: One Zack Duke has been pitching much better as of late which his numbers don't quite reflect. He experienced some early season struggles. He pitched well his last time out in a loss against the Braves and over his past three starts he has an ERA of 3.63 despite losing both games. Scott Olson is a lot like Duke both third year lefties with a world of talent. Olson is also struggling and has performed poorly on the road (ERA 5.49) but he too has been pitching better as of late. The Marlin bats did wake up today and I am a bit concerned now that Duke will be the third straight lefty they see so perhaps the Marlines are in some type of comfort zone now but I still feel there is quite a bit of value with Duke here as he is pitching better and with Florida showing in the early part of the season a knack for underachieving.

From the technical side, Pitt falls into a very strong home favorite system (68%) that plays on struggling home pitchers who have shown little control (WHIP between 1.55 to 1.65). The theoretical logic behind this system is that 1) A whip that high is not good but if you are favored then it must indicate respect from linesmaker against your opponent 2) There is typically value in laying the chalk because in all likelihood the other side will be the side the public bets (as you may have noticed the line opened at -125 and is now at -110).

Additionally these two met last year and Olson won so another system I track says that you should play on pitchers who lost in previous matchups between the two. The theoretical foundation here is revenge.

As always, best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

[bigboydan]

I like it double B.

[AC1318]

I have a question BB and BBD, isn't duke 0-2 while olsen is 2-0 against each other's team also in the three games a total of 16 runs were scored.
Although the games in pitt seem to go over the posted totals would you say under 8.5 might be a good shot to take or not?

Thanks in advance.

[Razz]

Good luck BB

[BuddyBear]

I have a question BB and BBD, isn't duke 0-2 while olsen is 2-0 against each other's team also in the three games a total of 16 runs were scored.
Although the games in pitt seem to go over the posted totals would you say under 8.5 might be a good shot to take or not?

Thanks in advance.

Pitt is a relatively weak hitting team so you always have to take a look at the under with them. FLA is also not swinging the bats great despite yesterday's 9 run effort...they've been shutout 2 times in thier last five games. Although they hit lefties pretty well but they are only 4-9 against them so they find ways to lose against them and if that trend holds it would mean PITT would not bat in the 9th inning which is a major advantage for the under....And with Duke and Olson pitching much better as of late I would lean toward the under but really I have nothing more than a lean there.

Good luck AC....

[The HG]

I also like Pitt here, although not as strongly as you BuddyBear.

But I do like the over. Yes Florida was in an offensive funk for a while, but they have a decent lineup, and should be productive again as they were yesterday. They had a team meeting, where among other things, Dontrelle Willis told them to start hitting again.

Not that being told to hit will make it happen, but Florida has some solid pop in their lineup and their lack of scoring recently was a bit of an aberration IMO.

Pittsburgh, as well, should be more productive offensively in the future than they have been so far.

And finally, yes Duke has been throwing better, and Olsen can be good, but in general, both have been vulnerable this year and both should be again tonight. I think the over 8.5 at about even money has decent value.