Originally Posted by
Cordoba25
Thx for your input, Waterstpub. I guess I see the game as a bunch of tiny edges all contributing to one larger edge... Sure, not as large as a play against Philly.. and all the chalk associated w/ a game like that. But just a bunch of solid edges.
It's interesting cause your model favors Price as performing slightly worse than Chavez but advanced metrics (XFIP and SIERRA - the ones I rely on the most) show them as equal, in addition to the notion that had it not been for 1 really bad start - Price ERA would be a good deal lower. I don't know if your model includes how teams specifically fare against Righty/ Lefty pitchers in addition to past pitcher performances vs the current Team hitters they'd be facing but these are both areas I'm weighing heavily in the decision on this pick. Oak is at home but that hasn't meant much, if anything all yr.
Unless someone comes in here with someting convincing on why it's not a smart pick probly going w/ Detroit. Just debating how much to bet on this.