[Buckandadime]

4/27
.5 Unit
Hou-SD YES +125/Colo-SD NO ​-115

[Buckandadime]

Colo/Arizona... Not SD

[Buckandadime]

If I get down 5 Units at .5 a Unit per then I will throw in the towel.. Not very promising thus far

[terrortwylight]

Hey bro.

Maybe just track it for a couple weeks or a month? It's a smart idea and it could work out awesome.

But just to be safe we should track it for a month and determine which teams or which conditions dictate good plays.

I mean do what you do with your money. But I like the idea and I think it would be interesting to investigate a little deeper.

[Buckandadime]

Yeah, your right.. I do tend to give up on betting formulas or trends too early... In no way am I investing any $ on this.. Purely a theory... Thank you terror

[terrortwylight]

Of course man.

Truth is, I see a guy come around every season talking about maybe doing something like this. And then usually before May, that guy has completely moved on. I know that it has to be discouraging, and there may not even be a reward to the actual work of tracking this. But you could also become an F'n hero around here if you made some kind of sense of it.

Maybe not even this particular trend. Maybe there's another weird prop bet you can make sense of. I don't know I'm spitballing here a little bit.

There's some really smart guys here that I've learned a lot from about this shit. Just the fact that you registered on a handicapping forum, that tells me you care about maybe learning something or becoming a better handicapper. No matter the outcome, your work around here will be appreciated.

[Buckandadime]

Here we go terror...
4/27
0-1 (-.5 Units)

4/28
.5 Unit

YESMilwaukee/Cincy +125
YESToronto/Boston -115
YESDetroit/Minnesota -105
NOSeattle/Texas -115

[Buckandadime]

Gonna track these as individual picks also.. Just because. Each pick is 1 Unit
4/27
0-2
(-2.15 Units)

[Buckandadime]

Please don't invest with these picks. It's just a theory

[terrortwylight]

I wasn't putting you on the spot.. if you're not into putting in the work, by no means don't feel obligated.

However if you are into the idea of possibly figuring this out.. then I am stoked to see how it goes!

[Buckandadime]

No hassles. Hopefully something good will come of it.

[Buckandadime]

4/28
O/A
Parlay
0-2
(-1.0 Units)
Individual
2-4
(-2.1 Units)

[Buckandadime]

4/29

NO Seattle/Texas -150
NO TB/NYY -160
NO NYM/Miami -135
YES Philly/StL +110

[HeeluvaGuy]

Maybe not even this particular trend. Maybe there's another weird prop bet you can make sense of. I don't know I'm spitballing here a little bit.

I think it's always important to keep this part in mind. Midway during the CBB season my picks were tanking. I went back and looked at my data looking for a different way to approach what I was doing and discovered a method of selecting games that ended up being profitable for the remainder of the season.

GL with your efforts.

[Buckandadime]

Thanks Heeluva. I just started going through my choices and grouping them with various trends and streaks. I figure if I start now it's less work down the road. Could be a waste but you never know.
GL to you Sir

[Buckandadime]

4/29
YTD
parlay
(0-3)
(-1.5 Units)
Individual
4-6
(-2.45 units)

[terrortwylight]

Buckandadime,

Have you picked up on any patterns yet? NL vs AL? Specific teams? Etc?

[terrortwylight]

If you do stick with the 1st inning score prop experiment, those are the kind of factors I'd looking at.

-What percentage does it hit in AL?
-What percentage does it hit in NL?
-What percentage does it hit in interleague play?
-What's the percentage of a 1st inning score if there was one the previous night?
-What's the percentage of a 1st inning score if it's the first game of a new series?
-Which starters are most prone to give up a first inning score?

I could go on and on, but if you still are serious about investigating this, those are the type of variables I'd be looking at hard.

I'm not sure how proficient you are with Excel, but it'd be very easy to track it all there.

Or, you could even open a notepad file on your PC and track it all from there (if Excel spreadsheets aren't your thing).

Just throwing ideas at you.

[terrortwylight]

And if you do decide to accumulate that sort of data, from there you could narrow it down even further to what time of the year the 1st inning score props hit the most.

I've got tons of ideas but I'm not sure if you're still on board with the experiment.

As I said, it would require effort. Probably about 10-15 minutes a night to track the 1st inning of each day's games.

Not a HUGE investment of time, but I realize we're mostly busy people here.

[Buckandadime]

I have stumbled onto something (maybe) but it really hasn't anything to do with the 1st inning score... Gonna chart it for awhile and see what happens.. Underdog and the Overs.. You can look at my other thread because those are the games it chose... Very early on in the process but the last 3 days playing the dog and the Over (No parlays)its 11-9 + 27.18 units.. Still filtering a bit and looking at 1st 5 props. Also looking to find that one possible key that would allow for 2 team parlays.. I'm gonna track it on the other thread and make what I believe to be the key the 2 Unit play.. Anyway, still early but who knows? Thanks for all your input and ideas

4/30

YES Wash/ NYM +140
NO. Tor/Clev -150
NO. Cincy/Atl -150
YES Sea/Hou +110

[terrortwylight]

Heyyyy there ya go.

That's a great idea!

Let's start tracking this.

[Buckandadime]

My BAD Terror.. That Unit # is for 2 team Parlays with the key... Don't know what I was looking at.. Dogs; 6-4 +3.73 Units. Overs; 6-4 +1.54 Units.. Not nearly as impressive but nonetheless a profit.. Sorry����

[Buckandadime]

4/30
YTD
Parlay
(0-4)
(-2.0 Units)

Individual
7-7
(-.35 Units)

[Buckandadime]

5/1

YES. NYY/Bos -110
YES. Cincy/Atl +115
YES. TB/Balt +100
No. Pitt/StLouis -130

[Buckandadime]

5/1
YTD
Parlay
(0-5)
(-2.5 Units)

Individual
10-8
+1.46 Units

[Buckandadime]

5/2


NO Pitt/StL -135
YES Phi/ Mia +115
YES Csox/Minn -120
NO NYY/Bos -120

[Buckandadime]

5/2
YTD
Parlay
0-6
(-3.0 Units)
Individual
12-10
+1.26 Units

[terrortwylight]

Found this somewhere just now. Take a look see.


Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Mia-Wsh-- Phelps 0-3; Zimmerman 2-5
Phil-Atl-- Harang 1-5; Wood 1-5
LA-Mil-- Kershaw 3-5; Lohse 3-5
Chi-StL-- Wood 1-4; Martinez 0-4
Az-Colo-- Collmenter 2-5; Matzek 1-4
SD-SF-- Ross 2-5; Bumgarner 1-4
NY-Tor-- Whitley 0-1; Dickey 1-5
TB-Bos-- Odorizzi 1-5; Buchholz 1-5
A's-Minn-- Hahn 1-4; Hughes 1-5
Tex-Hst-- Detwiler 1-4; Keuchel 1-5
Sea-LAA-- Hernandez 1-5; Shoemaker 2-4

[Buckandadime]

Good info Bro... Using that info alone it seems like all of today's games lean towards NO with the exception of LA/ Milwaukee.. I'll try incorporating it and see what happens.. Thank you Sir!