1. 04-16-15 10:13 AM #1
    The Alchemist
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    Twins ML

    Damn.. I placed my bet on the twins, then just found found out they are terrible against lefties and KC is smashing lefties..

    Damn it man, rookie move and degen....
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  2. 04-16-15 10:17 AM #2
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    you never know.
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  3. 04-16-15 10:18 AM #3
    The Alchemist
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    I hope so.. I have lost a lot these last four days.. On a horrible streak..
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  4. 04-16-15 10:19 AM #4
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    I had a rough start too. Good news is one of us will win today
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  5. 04-16-15 10:21 AM #5
    Emancipator
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    Its a decent bet I think. Royals do smash lefties. But they are probably overvalued somewhat, getting less than 20% of bets. Milone had a solid game last outing. Perhaps he can bring the Royals back to what will be reality with a larger sample size.
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  6. 04-16-15 10:24 AM #6
    The Alchemist
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    Just read your post. seem to do your homework. BOL, although I don't think you will need it.
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  7. 04-16-15 10:26 AM #7
    The Alchemist
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    @emancipator Man hopefully!! I feel like a rookie with figure out the facts. But you made a good point. Hmm right now I'm a just wondering do I just try to hedge it out or let it ride.
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  8. 04-16-15 10:28 AM #8
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    What number did you get? If you got a solid number, I'd stand pat.
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  9. 04-16-15 10:29 AM #9
    The Alchemist
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    Obviously if I do try to hedge it, I have to place way more to make profit if KC win. If the twins win, it would be like placing a bet on KC in the first place.. Hmm..
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  10. 04-16-15 10:31 AM #10
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    I am not sure if you bet a lot on twins, but if you bet within your means, your objective is to get the best number possible and I am thinking you probably did. It'd be a mistake to diminish your edge.
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  11. 04-16-15 10:31 AM #11
    The Alchemist
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    @High I have it at +111. Got it last night.
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  12. 04-16-15 10:33 AM #12
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    You are beating the sharpest book by five cents and the public is all over the Royals. In the short term, picking more winners is important to a small br, but if you are in this for the long haul, you met your objective by getting a great number.
    Last edited by High3rEl3m3nt; 04-16-15 at 10:35 AM. Reason: had to clarify
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  13. 04-16-15 10:37 AM #13
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    Of course the line is now moving the other way as I typed that.

    I will say this, the line does not move against the Royals without respectable money siding with the Twins.
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  14. 04-16-15 10:37 AM #14
    riffraff24
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    Name: Untitled.jpg Views: 365 Size: 41.0 KB
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    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: High3rEl3m3nt
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  15. 04-16-15 10:39 AM #15
    The Alchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    You are beating the sharpest book by five cents and the public is all over the Royals. In the short term, picking more winners is important to a small br, but if you are in this for the long haul, you met your objective by getting a great number.
    Yea I'm trying to be in it for the long haul. Kind of rough right now. Thanks for the feedback man. Not sure what I am going to do, leaning on just letting it ride.
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  16. 04-16-15 10:41 AM #16
    The Alchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Of course the line is now moving the other way as I typed that.

    I will say this, the line does not move against the Royals without respectable money siding with the Twins.
    Alright this is interesting then.. Well damn I'm confused!
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  17. 04-16-15 10:42 AM #17
    The Alchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by riffraff24 View Post
    Name: Untitled.jpg Views: 365 Size: 41.0 KB
    Nice where did you get that sir?
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  18. 04-16-15 10:52 AM #18
    riffraff24
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Alchemist View Post
    Nice where did you get that sir?
    made it
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  19. 04-16-15 10:52 AM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by riffraff24 View Post
    made it
    Excel spreadsheet?
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  20. 04-16-15 10:53 AM #20
    riffraff24
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Alchemist View Post
    Excel spreadsheet?
    Yes
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  21. 04-16-15 10:53 AM #21
    riffraff24
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    I make a more in depth one as the season goes on. I add a lot of stats that would be irrelevant this early in the season
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  22. 04-16-15 10:59 AM #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by riffraff24 View Post
    I make a more in depth one as the season goes on. I add a lot of stats that would be irrelevant this early in the season
    Nice man. I'm going to have to create one myself, not sure how, but I'm sure there are tutorials for it. Like the idea.
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  23. 04-16-15 11:09 AM #23
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Dailybaseballdata also provides a snapshot of hitter pitcher stats--though I'd argue that it's important to not overvalue this kind of data.

    link
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  24. 04-16-15 11:15 AM #24
    riffraff24
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Alchemist View Post
    Nice man. I'm going to have to create one myself, not sure how, but I'm sure there are tutorials for it. Like the idea.
    if you wanna pm me your email ill send you mine. i dont mind sharing
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  25. 04-16-15 11:32 AM #25
    The Alchemist
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Dailybaseballdata also provides a snapshot of hitter pitcher stats--though I'd argue that it's important to not overvalue this kind of data.

    link
    Thanks man!!
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  26. 04-16-15 11:33 AM #26
    The Alchemist
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    Starting to think I need to place my bet on KC.
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  27. 04-16-15 11:36 AM #27
    riffraff24
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    Milone - 11.57 ERA at Target Field and 12.15 ERA vs KC last year.

    im torn now
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  28. 04-16-15 11:48 AM #28
    riffraff24
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    eh sticking to my guns. Go Twinks
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  29. 04-16-15 12:03 PM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by riffraff24 View Post
    eh sticking to my guns. Go Twinks
    I messaged you my email my man. Yeah it's tough also seeing a lot of late money going into KC...
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  30. 04-16-15 12:06 PM #30
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    Lol now it's going into twins..
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  31. 04-16-15 03:16 PM #31
    The Alchemist
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    Well I'll take it!! Nice!
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  32. 04-16-15 04:06 PM #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Alchemist View Post
    Damn.. I placed my bet on the twins, then just found found out they are terrible against lefties and KC is smashing lefties..

    Damn it man, rookie move and degen....
    Nice call on the "Reverse Jinx".
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  33. 04-16-15 04:07 PM #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Alchemist View Post
    I messaged you my email my man. Yeah it's tough also seeing a lot of late money going into KC...
    Correct, it all went to the "books".
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