Objective:
Bet on the biggest road dog on the card for that day in a 4-game chase.
Conditions:
Road dogs only. No home dogs as backtest shows it's not very reliable
Odds must be moneyline between +100 (2.00) and +199 (2.99)
We will use Pinnacle odds as a reference. If a second book is needed we will use 5Dimes.
One play per day only.
When there's no road dogs that day then there will be no plays.
Backtests:
2012 Spring Training (15-2) -5.54*
2012 Regular Season (76-8) +79.3*
Total: (91-10) +73.76*
2013 Spring Training (17-1) +16.45*
2013 Regular Season (63-12) -0.97*
Total: (80-13) +15.48*
2014 Spring Training (12-1) +10.63*
2014 Regular Season (62-11) +24.04*
Total: (74-12) +34.67*
2015 Spring Training (16-0) +24.54*
System:
This system is a +EV chase system. Every series won will produce a profit that will more than double, triple your original bet or more. The deeper the series go the larger the profit. Every series loss will always be -15*.
For example
(A) bet with odds of +120 (2.20) so your stake would be 100 to win 120 -> if you win then you win 120
(B) bet with odds of +145 (2.45) so your stake would be 200 to win 490 -> if you win then you win 190
(C) bet with odds of +189 (2.89) so your stake would be 400 to win 1,156 -> if you win then you win 456
(D) bet with odds of +163 (2.63) so your stake would be 800 to win 2,104 -> if you win then you win 604
This system will require line watching up to just before gametime to determine the biggest dog of the day. There are a few days you are just unable to play the biggest dog of the day due to line movements so we'll just do our best to determine the team we will bet on. If two or more dogs are tied in odds after we consult with Pinnacle and 5Dimes, we will play the team with the better overall record. We will chase through the all-star break.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alternate Run-line Experimental Chase:
This is the same chase as above with the same team but with the Alternate -1.5 Run-line on the dog except that there are no odds limitations like above. Note this is only an experiment so play at own risk.
Backtests (regular season):
2012 (56-15)
2013 (46-21)
2014 (32-18)
With odds that will be much higher than the moneyline chase there should be profit to be made even with the higher number of series losses and fewer series wins. Again this is only an experiment as there's no data on alternate run-line odds to do a proper backtest. Again this is only an experiment so play at own risk.
Good Luck