1. #1
    imotiv8
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    Stifler's MLB Modified 2015

    Just got the ok from Stifler for Kubala to post a modified version of his baseball system

  2. #2
    Kubala
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    Thanks for the heads up Imotiv: I will post the rules tomorrow.

  3. #3
    Kubala
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    Ok Folks,

    I will post Stifler’s system 4 from last year.

    Here are the basic rules:

    All plays will be 4 game chases. Standard chase rules apply, that is; when u lose a bet, u bet to cover what u lost in the previous bet(s) + 1 unit. When a system team scores or allows 10 runs in a game, the chasing starts.

    Example A: SFG beats ATL 10-2: U would play San Francisco in their next game. (SF is a system team, ATL isn’t.) That would be the “A” bet. If SF wins, then the chase is done and u win 1 unit. If they lose, then u would wait for their next double digits game. If in this next game they score 10 runs and win, play them. If they allow 10 runs and lose, fade them. That would be the “B” bet.This process repeats for the C and the D bets. A loss is counted when a D bet loses.

    Example B: KCR beats LAA 10-9. U would fade LAA in their next game. (LAA is a system team, KCR isn’t.) That would be the “A” bet. If LAA loses, then the chase is done and u win 1 unit. If they win, then u would wait for their next double digits game. If in this next game they score 10 runs and win, play them. If they allow 10 runs and lose, fade them. That would be the “B” bet.This process repeats for the C and the D bets. A loss is counted when a D bet loses.

    Example C: TOR beats BAL 10-5. Since both teams are system teams, 2 chases will emanate from this result: a TOR play and a BAL fade. U would then play TOR in their next game and fade BAL in their next game. The same logic applies here with the B, C and D bets.

    In those rare cases where both system teams score 10+runs in the game, u play the winner in their next game and fade the loser in the next game, even though the loser scored 10+ runs and the winner allowed 10+ runs.

    System Teams:

    American League: BAL, BOS, NYY, TBR, CLE, TOR, CHW, MIN, HOU, LAA, TEX

    National League: ARI, SFG, COL

    Since this is essentially his system, Stifler can appear and change the teams if he feels like it.

    The system will stop generating new chases the 25th of August. The remainder of the season will be used to complete the chases that are already open.

    Trail at your own risk, as a 4 game chase be expensive. Last year’s system was successful but I can’t guarantee a repeat, as the system has only 1 year of actual testing under its belt.

    Best of Luck to those who follow...
    Points Awarded:

    imotiv8 gave Kubala 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    BOA12 gave Kubala 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    Stifler
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    here is something to work with:

    Team records over the last 4 seasons:

    Baltimore
    2011: 10-0
    2012: 9-0
    2013: 10-0
    2014: 5-1

    Boston
    2011: 15-0
    2012: 14-0
    2013: 13-0
    2014: 4-0

    NYY
    2011: 16-0
    2012: 7-1
    2013: 11-0
    2014: 4-1

    TB
    2011: 5-0
    2012: 8-1
    2013: 10-0
    2014: 6-0

    Toronto
    2011: 11-0
    2012: 12-0
    2013: 11-1
    2014: 11-0

    CHW
    2011: 7-0
    2012: 13-0
    2013: 4-0
    2014: 7-1

    Cleveland
    2011: 10-0
    2012: 14-0
    2013: 12-0
    2014: 7-0

    Detroit
    2011: 9-1
    2012: 9-0
    2013: 11-2
    2014: 13-0

    KC
    2011: 11-0
    2012: 5-0
    2013: 4-0
    2014: 9-0

    Minnesota
    2011: 9-1
    2012: 13-0
    2013: 8-0
    2014: 5-0

    Houston
    2011: 8-0
    2012: 8-1
    2013: 12-0
    2014: 14-0

    LA Angels
    2011: 5-0
    2012: 13-0
    2013: 12-0
    2014: 7-1

    Oakland
    2011: 4-0
    2012: 6-0
    2013: 7-1
    2014: 6-1

    Seattle
    2011: 6-0
    2012: 4-0
    2013: 13-0
    2014: 7-0

    Texas
    2011: 15-0
    2012: 15-0
    2013: 6-1
    2014: 11-0

    Atlanta
    2011: 5-2
    2012: 9-0
    2013: 6-0
    2014: 7-1

    Miami
    2011: 6-0
    2012: 7-0
    2013: 3-1
    2014: 5-0

    NY Mets
    2011: 7-0
    2012: 6-0
    2013: 7-0
    2014: 3-0

    Phillies
    2011: 9-0
    2012: 3-1
    2013: 5-1
    2014: 13-0

    Washington
    2011: 7-1
    2012: 4-0
    2013: 4-1
    2014: 6-0

    Cubs
    2011: 4-1
    2012: 6-2
    2013: 7-0
    2014: 6-1

    Cincinnati
    2011: 7-1
    2012: 5-1
    2013: 9-0
    2014: 5-0

    Milwaukee
    2011: 10-0
    2012: 6-0
    2013: 6-1
    2014: 4-1

    Pittsburgh
    2011: 7-0
    2012: 8-1
    2013: 8-0
    2014: 4-1

    St. Louis
    2011: 6-1
    2012: 11-0
    2013: 10-0
    2014: 3-1

    Arizona
    2011: 5-0
    2012: 10-0
    2013: 9-0
    2014: 7-0

    Colorado
    2011: 9-1
    2012: 15-0
    2013: 9-0
    2014: 12-1

    LA Dodgers
    2011: 5-0
    2012: 5-0
    2013: 4-0
    2014: 4-0

    San Diego
    2011: 4-1
    2012: 3-0
    2013: 7-1
    2014: 5-0

    San Francisco
    2011: 4-0
    2012: 5-0
    2013: 14-0
    2014: 2-0
    Points Awarded:

    imotiv8 gave Stifler 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    imotiv8
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    Nice Stif!

  6. #6
    imotiv8
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    Kubala based on those results by Stifler maybe we should add all those teams to get more action

  7. #7
    skyscrapers
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    At a quick glance playing all the teams is not going to work. We have losses of 10, 8, 10, 11 per season between 2011~2014. In a 4~game chase with that many losses with 200 or so wins a season will result in massive losses. We should stay with the qualified teams or come up with a new list of teams.

  8. #8
    Kubala
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    Stifler, thanks for posting your backtest info.

    Guys: See this list I made. It contains the backtest team numbers sorted by winning%.
    In my opinion, keeping the list to about half of the teams Is the safest way to go. Stifler last year had 14 of the 30 teams, so maybe we should have 14 or 15 this year:

    Team Wins Losses PCT Include ?
    Boston 46 0 1.000 YES
    Cleveland 43 0 1.000 YES
    Arizona 31 0 1.000 YES
    Seattle 30 0 1.000 YES
    KC 29 0 1.000 YES
    San Francisco 25 0 1.000 YES
    NY Mets 23 0 1.000 Maybe
    LA Dodgers 18 0 1.000 NO
    Texas 47 1 0.979 YES
    Toronto 45 1 0.978 YES
    Houston 42 1 0.977 YES
    LA Angels 37 1 0.974 YES
    Minnesota 35 1 0.972 YES
    Baltimore 34 1 0.971 YES
    CHW 31 1 0.969 YES
    TB 29 1 0.967 YES
    Colorado 45 2 0.957 Maybe
    Miami 21 1 0.955 NO
    NYY 38 2 0.950 NO
    Phillies 30 2 0.938 NO
    St. Louis 30 2 0.938 NO
    Detroit 42 3 0.933 NO
    Pittsburgh 27 2 0.931 NO
    Cincinnati 26 2 0.929 NO
    Milwaukee 26 2 0.929 NO
    Oakland 23 2 0.920 NO
    Washington 21 2 0.913 NO
    San Diego 19 2 0.905 NO
    Atlanta 27 3 0.900 NO
    Cubs 23 4 0.852 NO

    The top teams like Boston and Cleveland are a no-brainer. So is leaving out teams like San Diego and the Cubs. I left the Dodgers out because even though they are undefeated, they have a small sample size and they will command high juice since they are big favorites. I have doubts about Colorado and the Mets. I think we should keep it to 15 teams Max.
    Last edited by Kubala; 04-04-15 at 03:10 AM. Reason: Spelling

  9. #9
    imotiv8
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    Nice!

  10. #10
    Kubala
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    Ok, the decision was made to not include Colorado and play the Mets. These are the official 15 teams for the system:
    American League: BOS, BAL, TBR, TOR, CLE, CHW, MIN, KCR, HOU, TEX, SEA, LAA
    National League: NYM, SFG, ARI.

    I will post the odds that I get, so your unit count might vary in relation to mine. I will post in American style; ie -115, -185, etc.
    BR.

  11. #11
    Kubala
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    Ok, here we go:

    08.04.2015

    #1 KCR (A): Kansas City -125
    #2 CHW (A): Kansas City -125

    Please don't forget: Trail at your own risk as a 4 game chase can get pricey.
    Last edited by Kubala; 04-08-15 at 11:08 PM.

  12. #12
    imotiv8
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    Good job keeping track! A couple of questions: #1 why do you have KC posted twice? #2 date you have is April 7, 2014?

  13. #13
    HighFive
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    I believe the date is just a mistake.. The reason he has KC twice is because they beat CWS 10-1 on Monday. Seeing as how both are included in the formula, you would play: 1) Kansas City to WIN; 2) Chicago White Sox to LOSE.

    So, 2 bets on KC, but technically, it's 1 to favor KC and 1 to fade CWS.

  14. #14
    crackerjack
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    I don't understand what qualifies as a play. Margin of victory matters? Can you explain that in more detail please...

  15. #15
    crackerjack
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    Quote Originally Posted by crackerjack View Post
    I don't understand what qualifies as a play. Margin of victory matters? Can you explain that in more detail please...
    Never mind. I realize only certain teams are included in this chase.

  16. #16
    Kubala
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    HighFive, Imotiv.

    HighFive's explanation is correct. Since both teams involved In the double digits game are in the system, two chases take place, a KC play and a CWS fade.

    Today DET bombed Minny 11-0, but since DET is not a system team, there will only be 1 chase: a MIN fade.

  17. #17
    Kubala
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kubala View Post
    Ok, here we go:

    08.04.2015

    #1 KCR (A): Kansas City -125
    #2 CHW (A): Kansas City -125

    Please don't forget: Trail at your own risk as a 4 game chase can get pricey.
    Record:
    S4: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)

  18. #18
    takethepnts
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    Great start. Thank you for your work and taking the time to post and share :-)

  19. #19
    Kubala
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    APR.09.2015

    #3 MIN (A): Detroit -160
    #4 TEX (A): Oakland -150
    Points Awarded:

    imotiv8 gave Kubala 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  20. #20
    imotiv8
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    good job Kubala! Anyone that is tailing should at least give him some points, he's taking out his time to post and share!

  21. #21
    Kubala
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    APR.09.2015

    #3 MIN (A):
    Detroit -160
    #4 TEX (A): Oakland -150

    Record:
    S4: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)

    pending:
    #4 TEX (B) APR.10.2015
    Last edited by Kubala; 04-09-15 at 10:10 PM.

  22. #22
    Kubala
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    Thanks for your support Imotiv.

    APR.10.2015
    #4 TEX (B): Texas +100
    Points Awarded:

    takethepnts gave Kubala 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    imotiv8 gave Kubala 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  23. #23
    zxc
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    Cleared
    Last edited by zxc; 04-11-15 at 09:31 AM. Reason: Clarified

  24. #24
    msangreal
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    Quote Originally Posted by zxc View Post
    Hey Kubala. I think we had a mistake for the series of TEX. On the A bet we faded it then on the B bet we followed it. If I remembered correctly we don't change method on the middle of a chase, meaning if we are fading TEX on a chase we would be fading it all throughout A B C D if necessary. Can you confirm on this? Thanks!
    With all due respect take the time to read the rules before asking questions like this - Kubala is correct according to the rules

  25. #25
    takethepnts
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    Quote Originally Posted by zxc View Post
    Hey Kubala. I think we had a mistake for the series of TEX. On the A bet we faded it then on the B bet we followed it. If I remembered correctly we don't change method on the middle of a chase, meaning if we are fading TEX on a chase we would be fading it all throughout A B C D if necessary. Can you confirm on this? Thanks!
    Example A: SFG beats ATL 10-2: U would play San Francisco in their next game. (SF is a system team, ATL isn’t.) That would be the “A” bet. If SF wins, then the chase is done and u win 1 unit. If they lose, then u would wait for their next double digits game. If in this next game they score 10 runs and win, play them. If they allow 10 runs and lose, fade them. That would be the “B” bet.This process repeats for the C and the D bets. A loss is counted when a D bet loses.

  26. #26
    zxc
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    My bad. I didn't realize that we are just playing System 4 of Stifler's System. Got hooked up too much on System 1-3. Thanks for the clarification!

  27. #27
    Kubala
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kubala View Post

    APR.10.2015
    #4 TEX (B): Texas +100
    record:
    S4:W 3 | L 0 (+3.00 units)

    pending:
    #4 Tex (C) on next dd game

  28. #28
    Kubala
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    APR.11.2015

    #5 BAL (A): Toronto +100
    #6 TOR (A): Toronto +100
    #7 TBR (A): Miami +100
    #8 SEA (A): Oakland -150

    pending:
    #4 Tex (C) on next dd game
    Points Awarded:

    takethepnts gave Kubala 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  29. #29
    takethepnts
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    Quote Originally Posted by zxc View Post
    My bad. I didn't realize that we are just playing System 4 of Stifler's System. Got hooked up too much on System 1-3. Thanks for the clarification!
    Your welcome. Good luck going forward!

  30. #30
    d003r
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    Hi Kubala,

    After tonight's results, I would guess the play for tomorrow is to fade San Francisco? Do we play with or without pitcher requirements, and do we ever play a run line?

  31. #31
    Kubala
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    D003r: Correct. Fade San Francisco. The system does not use listed pitchers, only team vs team. I don't think Stif ever played the run line for this system, so only play moneyline.

  32. #32
    Kubala
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    APR.11.2015

    #5 BAL (A): Toronto +100
    #6 TOR (A): Toronto +100
    #7 TBR (A): Miami +100
    #8 SEA (A): Oakland -150

  33. #33
    Kubala
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    APR.12.2015

    #9 SFG (A): SDP -130

    Pending:

    #4 TEX (C): on next dd game
    #5 BAL (B): on next dd game
    #6 TOR (B): on next dd game
    #7 TBR (B): on next dd game
    #8 SEA (B): on next dd game

  34. #34
    Kubala
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    APR.12.2015

    #9 SFG (A): SDP -130

    record:
    S4:W 4 | L 0 (+4.00 units)

    Pending:
    #4 TEX (C): on next dd game
    #5 BAL (B): on next dd game
    #6 TOR (B): on next dd game
    #7 TBR (B): on next dd game
    #8 SEA (B): on next dd game
    Points Awarded:

    takethepnts gave Kubala 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    imotiv8 gave Kubala 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  35. #35
    Kubala
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    APR.13.2015

    #5 BAL (B): NYY +110
    #6 TOR (B): TOR -140
    #10 NYY (A): NYY +110
    #11 BOS (A): WAS +100

    Pending:
    #4 TEX (C): on next dd game
    #7 TBR (B): on next dd game
    #8 SEA (B): on next dd game

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