1. 03-30-15 12:31 PM #1
    on3
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    on3's MLB 2015 Opening Day System Thread

    Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

    It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
    No 2-game series' should be played.
    After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
    Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
    The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

    Last year finished at around +42 units. And the filtered bets and 5/2 just didnt generate enough plays (20 for the season) to gain any traction.

    Last years thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...em-thread.html
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  2. 03-30-15 12:33 PM #2
    imotiv8
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    Awesome! Glad to see your back
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  3. 03-30-15 06:10 PM #3
    analyzer
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    Thanks! Looking forward to it!
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  4. 03-30-15 07:08 PM #4
    Turfgrass
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    Bookmarked and ready to go.
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  5. 03-31-15 08:14 AM #5
    hagball52
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    Checking in.
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  6. 04-02-15 05:37 AM #6
    knugen
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    Are we starting the system rhe same date as MLB?
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  7. 04-02-15 08:42 AM #7
    garcia991
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    New to this system, there are few questions I am just wondering.

    1)If we won the first game, we won't bet the series again, right?
    2)If we lost the first game, and the B bet is qualified as filtered play, do we play regular system and filtered system at the same time? Or just filtered system?

    thanks for helping!!
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  8. 04-02-15 07:18 PM #8
    md3324
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    Quote Originally Posted by garcia991 View Post
    New to this system, there are few questions I am just wondering.

    1)If we won the first game, we won't bet the series again, right?
    2)If we lost the first game, and the B bet is qualified as filtered play, do we play regular system and filtered system at the same time? Or just filtered system?

    thanks for helping!!
    1) Correct
    2) I am 99% sure....A filtered play is determined on the "A" game of the series only. The series will be considered filtered if the O/U closes at 9 or higher. If the "A" game loses then you continue the series as a regular play and a filtered play on the "B" game.
    The bet on the filtered "B" game would be to win 5 units where the regular play would be to win 1 unit plus losses from the "A" game. 0N3 usually runs a labby throughout the season which will change the unit count (the way I mentioned would be the traditional method). Biggest thing about this system is the "A" games tend to win at a high rate. I'd have to guess they win somewhere between 2:1 and 3:1. The "A" games are where we make our $$$. If I'm wrong someone please correct.
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  9. 04-03-15 01:03 PM #9
    on3
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    Labby will start running after the first two weeks. Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered wil be doubled.

    UPDATED for 4/5/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/5/2015
    (A) CHC TBD

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
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  10. 04-04-15 08:58 AM #10
    knugen
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    Cubs are not a play!
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  11. 04-04-15 03:52 PM #11
    dect6.0
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    wow. cubs to open the season huh? big balls you have there on3
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  12. 04-04-15 09:02 PM #12
    J.M. Disciple
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    checking in. Looks like no plays until the 6th. Are we using covers to determine the odds?
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  13. 04-05-15 12:40 PM #13
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/5/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/5/2015
    No plays today

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
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  14. 04-05-15 12:42 PM #14
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by dect6.0 View Post
    wow. cubs to open the season huh? big balls you have there on3
    No, plays are only official if they meet the line of -145 or higher
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  15. 04-05-15 05:41 PM #15
    bauerranch
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    Thanks IM back
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  16. 04-06-15 08:02 AM #16
    crackerjack
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    Quote Originally Posted by imotiv8 View Post
    Awesome! Glad to see your back
    Whats so special about his back? I want to see his back...
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  17. 04-06-15 10:40 AM #17
    J.M. Disciple
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    A lot of juice dropped from last night. NYY was a play last night, but using covers it is currently above -145. These are the plays I got since games are starting soon.

    nyy (maybe) sitting at -141 right now.
    det
    mil *possible filter play if O/u hits 9
    was
    lad
    sea
    oak.

    On3 are you doing standard $20 unit size again so to start the season these are all $10 bets (.5u)?
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  18. 04-06-15 10:47 AM #18
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Sorry to be the new guy, but I'm interested in following along this season. I think I have the basics down, but I do have one question: Are plays based on opening lines or closing lines?

    Thanks and GL!
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  19. 04-06-15 11:20 AM #19
    on3
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    Full update coming soon, but the first game is Detroit. Play for half unit these first two weeks.
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  20. 04-06-15 11:35 AM #20
    md3324
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    0N3 are you using covers for your closing lines?
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  21. 04-06-15 12:03 PM #21
    on3
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    First two weeks, play (A) bets with a half unit, (B) bet with a full unit, (C) bet with two units (all to win)

    UPDATED for 4/5/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/6/2015
    (A) DET -161
    (A) WAS -165
    (A) LAD -185
    (A) SEA -153
    (A) OAK -153

    KEEP AN EYE ON:
    MIL -143, MIA -146

    Filtered
    none

    KEEP AN EYE ON:
    MIL

    5/2
    none
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  22. 04-06-15 12:05 PM #22
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by md3324 View Post
    0N3 are you using covers for your closing lines?
    i'm using 5Dimes here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/merged/
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  23. 04-06-15 01:52 PM #23
    on3
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    MIL closed at -142 and is/was a no play, MIA closed at -145 and was a play
    Last edited by on3; 04-07-15 at 12:59 PM.
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  24. 04-07-15 12:59 PM #24
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/7/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +2 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/7/2015
    (B) WAS on 4/8
    (B) MIA -135

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
    Last edited by on3; 04-07-15 at 05:28 PM.
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  25. 04-07-15 04:07 PM #25
    dlunc3
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    You betting just to win 1 unit on the B bets? Or betting to win 1 unit along with the amount lost on the A bet?
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  26. 04-07-15 04:39 PM #26
    dect6.0
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    Quote Originally Posted by on3 View Post
    First two weeks, play (A) bets with a half unit, (B) bet with a full unit, (C) bet with two units (all to win)

    UPDATED for 4/5/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/6/2015
    (A) DET -161
    (A) WAS -165
    (A) LAD -185
    (A) SEA -153
    (A) OAK -153

    KEEP AN EYE ON:
    MIL -143, MIA -146

    Filtered
    none

    KEEP AN EYE ON:
    MIL

    5/2
    none
    Quote Originally Posted by on3 View Post
    UPDATED for 4/6/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +2 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/6/2015
    (B) WAS on 4/8
    (B) MIA -135

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
    so whats the difference in the 4-0 record and 4-2 record?
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  27. 04-07-15 05:28 PM #27
    on3
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    because (A) games went 4-2 and the 2 losses arent completed series' yet. a loss in a series takes 3 games.
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  28. 04-07-15 09:27 PM #28
    J.M. Disciple
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    Miami got slaughtered from the 1st. Onto our first C.
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  29. 04-08-15 12:28 PM #29
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/8/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +2 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
    Current open: (-.93 units, -2.08 units)

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-1; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/8/2015
    (B) WAS -127
    (C) MIA -125

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
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  30. 04-09-15 12:42 PM #30
    on3
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    the first two weeks of the season are always filled with false favorites and lines havent settled. this is why we play it small until things get cooking near the end of april.


    UPDATED for 4/9/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 5-1-0; Profit: -2.46 units (MIA -4.53 units)
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
    Current open:

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-1; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/9/2015
    none

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
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  31. 04-09-15 03:42 PM #31
    sportsbetter21
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    Are you chasing you're "A" bet or betting 2 units at what ever line the "B" game is?
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  32. 04-10-15 12:03 PM #32
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsbetter21 View Post
    Are you chasing you're "A" bet or betting 2 units at what ever line the "B" game is?
    no chasing losses the first two weeks, but there is an increased unit size. does that make sense? this is how i would recommend playing it, this is how i'm counting units, but everyone has their own comfort level.
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  33. 04-10-15 12:04 PM #33
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/10/2015
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 5-1-0; Profit: -2.46 units (MIA -4.53 units)
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
    Current open:

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-1; 0-0; 0-0

    REGULAR FOR 4/10/2015
    none (as of yet)

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
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  34. 04-11-15 11:49 AM #34
    on3
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    No plays this weekend
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  35. 04-12-15 11:38 PM #35
    J.M. Disciple
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    One early game tomorrow on NYM 1:10ET.
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