1. #36
    Dan Kelly
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    To start - Go talk to some of the MIT doctoral candidates that the books have programming their Cray XC40's.

    Because baseball has twice as many data points as hockey and hoops (10 times football), and with stats now being done to the micro pitch, the machines can only be beat by something intuitive (you better be a savant) or a system that uses the machines like:

    1. follow the Market
    2. beat Market to the Closer


    I'm certain Number 2 is extremely difficult.

    BOL



    Last edited by Dan Kelly; 03-21-15 at 09:54 AM.

  2. #37
    KiDBaZkiT
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    1st step, make sure I don't have the same bet as jj.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: Dan Kelly

  3. #38
    keel44
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    Money can be made in any sport when the opposite thing happens to the general expectations.

    Fading Boston Red Sox last year
    Fading the A's in the 2nd half
    Riding the Royals end of the year
    Riding the Brewers beginning of the year

    Things like this happens in big bunches. Take a stab at something early and keep riding it until the wheels fall off.

  4. #39
    rkelly110
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    I have a few tools in my MLB tool box. No capping. Look at odds only. Kept track of the ML fave of the day with odds of -222 and lower. I use decimal odds of 1.45 and higher to pinpoint the true fave.

    Every year the percentages were in the mid to high 60's. Betting from the 1st day until the last game in Sept. Doesn't work for the play offs. There's less than a handfull of 3 or more games that lost in a row, so a chase system would be good.

    2013 season went 139-63 69%. Last year went 123-65 65%

    If you like betting both sides, find games that have minimum odds of +220. ML dog of +220 and -1.5 on RL of +220. Don't have accurate records on that. Used with good results.

    Another tool I've used, look for home ML fave's who've lost the 1st game by two or more runs. If they are the ML fave again on the 2nd game, start a 2 game chase. Rarely are home faves shut out. Good results also.

    GL boys.
    Last edited by rkelly110; 03-21-15 at 04:14 PM.

  5. #40
    Swinging Johnson
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    thats a really great informative post. Thanks for sharing. There is no right or wrong answer to this I just like to hear other posters strategies so I can try them out and see if they help me.
    Positive energy right here boys. We need more of it.

  6. #41
    byronbb
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    Quote Originally Posted by statnerds View Post
    1. follow the Market
    2. beat Market to the Closer
    3. collect winnings
    4. repeat
    This is more than chasing steam right?

  7. #42
    pavyracer
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    1. You pick a coin.
    2. You assign heads to home team..tails to road team.
    3. You flip the coin.
    4. You pick it up and bet the team according to where it landed..heads or tails.

    Can you do this Big Bear?

  8. #43
    STAX
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Honestly... I think the art is.... matching up coaches minds... etc. What they would do in certain situations. Also, who's scheduled coming out of the bullpen... and who's tired and won't come out. Did they play extra innings last night??? Did they play a night game and today will be a day game? Everything matters. And once you figure out bullpen production... then... look at lifetime stats VS batter and pitcher.

    Did I bore you yet? That's how much handicapping is done in one game... imagine if you had to do 15 a night? That's why the sh#$ isn't worth it.
    good post, Managers and Coaches are the #1 thing to consider in any sport. Momentum and mental state of a team as a whole is second. Stats are 3rd, and trends are worthless. Also consider the nationality of key players, foreign players seem to fail under pressure in big games/TV games. US born players relish the pressure as a hole, especially in the NBA, and MLB pitching

  9. #44
    HardCore
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    Follow HardCore's MLB thread he's a beast. Getting this Moneys mandatory so play his picks and get rich.

  10. #45
    Snowball
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    the chase and fade variants work. i did one a few years ago here that
    ended up over 20 units, it's high was almost 40. but you have to limit the chase
    around 3 games or you end up getting buried on a losing streak. i found that
    the 2-game limit on a martingale chase or fade is just as successful and less risky.
    stick with the middle-range teams vs. middle-range teams because the top are overpriced a
    and the lowest go on losing streaks prohibitive to chase system. Every team has its top ace.
    Fade a team after their ace has pitched the last game. Chase a team when their ace is starting.

  11. #46
    jjgold
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    That Chase or monte Carlo method is very dangerous in baseball as it takes one bad team streak to knock you out

  12. #47
    KiDBaZkiT
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    i go to vinsider, see what play is top 10 and hammer.

  13. #48
    crackerjack
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    Rate starting pitchers in four tiers. If a top tier pitcher has back to back bad outings, hammer his team to win next time out. Price will be lower than normal and he'll bounce back. I've made a ton on this trend. I have lots of other trends I like based on the four tier rating system. I also like to ignore starting pitchers and cap the game straight up. You'd be surprised how capping the matchup without factoring starters can work.

  14. #49
    GIVEMETHEMONEY
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcdonae101 View Post
    1. logon to sbr
    2. find wizzles season long thread before he starts new one
    3. bet opposite of every play
    4. sit back and get rich

    it really can b this simple
    lmfao everyone always beats up on wizzle lol

  15. #50
    GIVEMETHEMONEY
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    1. You pick a coin.
    2. You assign heads to home team..tails to road team.
    3. You flip the coin.
    4. You pick it up and bet the team according to where it landed..heads or tails.

    Can you do this Big Bear?
    Can her tongue in your avatar flip the coin for us?

    Now wouldn't that be a trip!!

  16. #51
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    1. You pick a coin.
    2. You assign heads to home team..tails to road team.
    3. You flip the coin.
    4. You pick it up and bet the team according to where it landed..heads or tails.

    Can you do this Big Bear?
    Spot on

  17. #52
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
    Money can be made in any sport when the opposite thing happens to the general expectations.

    Fading Boston Red Sox last year
    Fading the A's in the 2nd half
    Riding the Royals end of the year
    Riding the Brewers beginning of the year

    Things like this happens in big bunches. Take a stab at something early and keep riding it until the wheels fall off.
    who be your top 3 teams to bet on and top 3 to fade based on public perception and based on how you expect teams to come out of the gate this season???

  18. #53
    terrortwylight
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    I've consistently made money in MLB keying in on several different statistics. Over the last 10 seasons, I've only been negative units twice. The one constant for me is money management. Whatever you do is whatever you do. Everyone has a different idea of what is important.

    At the end of the day, if you manage your bankroll properly, you'll be positive units.

    I know it may seem trite to even mention, but it's hands down the most important factor.

  19. #54
    recon1
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    Have a friend who runs a truly successful MLB investing campaign last 10 years. He is the guru of all gurus with computer programming. He would give me picks daily, but by time of opening pitch he's just finishing running programs and barely gets his plays in.
    I posted one of his plays here last year and it lost, had one of the members go off on my pick
    so, i refrain from giving picks, you never know who's investing the mortgage or kids future here.
    Bear, you gotta come up with a system, you just can't look at a lineup and pick based on how you feel with knowledge of game. If it was based on knowledge of game Pete Rose would have won 90% of his games back in the day.
    I devised a system that's very profitable for NCAAF, but not so lucky with my second favorite sport which is baseball. I did start tracking a trend in MLB last year and was dead-nuts-on all season except one complete horendous week, it has to do with Over/unders. Ran it by my buddy and he simulated it last 3 years and liked it, he and I go live with it this Spring. If this year works-out…….

  20. #55
    surfpunk17
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    Bullpens. I think they play a much bigger role than what is usually accounted for in the line. Just my opinion tho.

  21. #56
    crackerjack
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    Quote Originally Posted by surfpunk17 View Post
    Bullpens. I think they play a much bigger role than what is usually accounted for in the line. Just my opinion tho.
    Probably but it's hard to cap. For one, not all relief pitchers are equal and you don't know who will be pitching on a day to day basis. You don't even know how many innings the bullpen will pitch.

  22. #57
    vividjohn45
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    1st 5 innings. pitcher matchup. hardly anything else matters for me.

  23. #58
    vividjohn45
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    Quote Originally Posted by daneblazer View Post


    Cya on opening day, Bear
    lol

  24. #59
    recon1
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    Knowing the tendencies of umpires should be apart of your decision. Not knowing the umps has burned me in past.

  25. #60
    lakerboy
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    Do not bet home fave teams on the rl.

    Do not bet road rl faves.

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