[RavensFan2k3]

Man Collementer didnt allow a single run all spring training, BOL tho

[broadway6]

watch the Braves win the day after they trade their closer.

[PorkChop]

I think ChiSox win Central this year. Hell of an off-season, one of biggest surprises this year to me

[stevenash]

White Sox are + 107 today

[stevenash]

Man Collementer didnt allow a single run all spring training, BOL tho

I'm aware, however the show begins today.

[Smoke]

Rockies/brewers over 8 for me stevenash

[RollinDo]

Any Unders you like Nasher?

I like Under in Mia and in TB.
Side leans for Cincy, Clev, Milky, and SF.

How about Astros TT (U 3.5) -125 with Kluber?

[stevenash]

Rockies/brewers over 8 for me stevenash

The logical total play.
Yeah, I'm stacking Brewers and Rockies in my dailies today, if that game goes to form, it'll be raining hits.
BoL Smokey

[stevenash]

Any Unders you like Nasher?

I like Under in Mia and in TB.
Side leans for Cincy, Clev, Milky, and SF.

How about Astros TT (U 3.5) -125 with Kluber?

I'm wary of Kluber today, the Astros got a team that can mash.
Miami game is an under or nothing, but the under is juiced to the bejeezus.

Another game I like the more I look at it is Balty with Tillman, who isn't that much better than Archer, but the big difference is the lineups.
Batly should win that game at + money.

Stay away from the chalk, in baseball, the chalk will murder you.
If you bet smart + money games all year, you'll always be in the game.

Smart + money games to me today are:

White Sox
Baltimore
(maybe Cole Hamels against Bucholz, but it's the Phils so I'm not so sure on that one at +105)

[Goat Milk]

White Sox won't beat the Royal on opening day in KC. There is magic in that stadium. Way too many ppl sleeping on that team. They're even better than last year. White Sox will suck just like every year. Guarantee they finish far behind Detroit and KC

[Vasco]

White Sox won't beat the Royal on opening day in KC. There is magic in that stadium. Way too many ppl sleeping on that team. They're even better than last year. White Sox will suck just like every year. Guarantee they finish far behind Detroit and KC

Fade

[No coincidences]

White Sox won't beat the Royal on opening day in KC. There is magic in that stadium. Way too many ppl sleeping on that team. They're even better than last year. White Sox will suck just like every year. Guarantee they finish far behind Detroit and KC

Can you name one player on either team?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Magic at Kauffman lmao yeah right Goat! Just typical bandwagon fans who didn't even really get fully engaged with that team till mid Sept or so last year. Like Sox as well Nash.

[stevenash]

Magic at Kauffman lmao yeah right Goat! Just typical bandwagon fans who didn't even really get fully engaged with that team till mid Sept or so last year. Like Sox as well Nash.

BoL

Rox over cashed already.
If that team had any pitching at all, wow!
But they have nothing for arms, they have noodle arms.
They really need to trade some of those surplus of bats for some live pitching.

Balty is up early.
So far, so good.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Put a unit on Sox @+109 only play in mlb so far today and probably stay that way. Bol boys!!

[stevenash]

Oh, in case you missed it, I'll say it more time.
David Price will be your AL Cy Young, just a stellar outing earlier.
Freaking guy was electric.
Best thing the Tigers did in 5 years was get rid of Prince and sign Price.
Now, about that Tiger bullpen.......

[mlb]

Oh, in case you missed it, I'll say it more time.
David Price will be your AL Cy Young, just a stellar outing earlier.
Freaking guy was electric.
Best thing the Tigers did in 5 years was get rid of Prince and sign Price.
Now, about that Tiger bullpen.......

Got rid of coke though!

[broadway6]

Oh, in case you missed it, I'll say it more time.
David Price will be your AL Cy Young, just a stellar outing earlier.
Freaking guy was electric.
Best thing the Tigers did in 5 years was get rid of Prince and sign Price.
Now, about that Tiger bullpen.......

1 out from a CG SHO

[stevenash]

@mlb
Yeah, when he first came up with the Yanks he was lights out.
Automatic.
Then, something happened, ever since 2010 or so, he's been trash.
Then he goes to the Cubs this spring, pitches lights out again, and earns a job.
I like the kid, best of luck to him.

[stevenash]

1 out from a CG SHO

I hear you.
(we knew)

[EXhoosier10]

First off, I never said BvP is the be all end all.
Secondly it's not even my go to stat when I handicap, but it should not be ignored.
Now, Teheran has lost a litttle velocity, 1.1 mph to be exact, so maybe Stanton will catch up to him.
Just because I said I liked the under, and even Stanton struggles against him, doesn't mean it's because of that one stat.
Alveraz is a ground ball pitcher, had a nice season last year inducing ground balls, that's a big part why I like the under, 5 factors why I like the under tomorrow, one of them is not the Stanton stat, however it should not be ignored.

Now, what does this suggest to you?
Nelson Cruz is 15 for 71 lifetime versus J Weaver .211, and he struck out 22 times.
That doesn't mean anything to you?

posted this over in NC's thread. I'll post it here and drop the topic. I dont' use BvP, and wouldn't suggest it to any new baseball gambler to use in their 'capping, so I wanted to post this here since your a good capper and lots of new guys will venture into this thread. If you think you have the eyes to pick the hitters that will do worse than their projections, that's your prerogative.
-----------------
-----------------
-----------------
Yes, some hitters don't see pitchers well. Yes, some hitters will be worse against some pitchers throughout their career. No, you nor any other random internet guy can predict which matchups those are on a consistent basis. It's why Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus don't put that information on their sites. It's why there have been countless articles written by people who are employed by MLB teams that show that a good batter who hasn't had success against a pitcher in the past is likely to regress back to his mean performance level in the future instead of staying at his current results level.

The argument isn't that players don't perform worse than others against a pitcher. The argument is that nobody has found the proper methodology across a large sample of players to predict future performance and determine when a player is likely to continue to underperform rather than revert back to his expect performance.

[TwoWays]

Steven doesn't need your opinion. Guy is winning. Just come unthread and ask for picks, is best approach

[Smoke]

Rockies/brewers over 8 for me stevenash

Rockies covered by themselves

[TwoWays]

Rockies covered by themselves

Smokie, stop spamming

[Smoke]

Smokie, stop spamming

Wayler its not spamming. Its winning.

[TwoWays]

Wayler its not spammmg. Its winning.

Smokie, I apologize

[Smoke]

Smokie, I apologize

Thank you sir

[Goat Milk]

Fade

good luck with your whitesox bet

Can you name one player on either team?

i know a decent amount about baseball now. not too much strategy but i know most of the players.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Sux look dead oh well Goat I didn't think you followed mlb much. But far as magic at Kauffman that's just typical in postseason anywhere whether the fans been there thru thick/thin or not and to top it off it was 30 years of frustration behind that madness. Would have been no less magic in air if it had been say Tampa who get NO support in reg season.

Kc is a good squad with decent s.p. a better pen and good solid lineup. But many forget this squad was treading water thru much of last year and just got hot at right time which included a lucky win over Oak where they caught several breaks followed by 2 teams not built for postseason Halos/Balty where they had the pitching edge. Good day it looks like Nash I sided with wrong one though.

[stevenash]

Two out of three ain't bad.

ONLINE 04/06/2015 08:55 AM	[Ticket #: 207858498] STRAIGHT BET 04/06/2015 @ 01:15 PM MLB [903] NY METS +151 ( ACTION ) 200.00 302.00
ONLINE 04/06/2015 08:55 AM	[Ticket #: 207858499] STRAIGHT BET 04/06/2015 @ 12:20 PM MLB [917] BAL ORIOLES +115 ( ACTION ) 200.00 230.00
ONLINE 04/06/2015 08:55 AM	[Ticket #: 207858501] STRAIGHT BET 04/06/2015 @ 01:20 PM MLB [919] CHI WHITE SOX +107 ( ACTION ) 200.00 214.00

YTD 3 - 1
+5.3 *

*Note, none of these have been graded yet.

[Smoke]

Nashy cashy

[tatddy]

[TwoWays]

Steven eating like a king. I'm guessing farm raised salmon and wonderbread tonight

[stevenash]

^
Fish tacos.

[tatddy]

Nash what's your take on Texas? Line seems way inflated to me. Gonna be coldish tonight and don't see a whole lot of runs in that game. Gray is the real deal (potentially) but can see Gallardo firing and this being a pen game.

Also As haven't won on opening day since Reagan was in office.

Any thoughts?