[Willie Bee]

Go with Glavine & Mets in desert

Game Time: 5/3/2007 9:40:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.touthouse.com


Tom Glavine and the Mets as road chalk are the right play this evening when New York heads to the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Mets hit the road after avoiding the sweep at home against the Marlins with a win on Wednesday.

New York is actually a better road team as it is 9-3 on the season including winning five of their last six away from home. It has been a combination of both offense and pitching as the Mets are hitting .295 on the road while posting an ERA of 1.50. New York has allowed two runs or less in eight of its 12 road games and faces a struggling offense as Arizona is hitting just .236 over its last 10 games.

Micah Owings returns for the Diamondbacks after missing over two weeks with a strained right hamstring. He has been very efficient in his three starts this season but his problem has been that he has not been able to go deep into the game. He has pitched five or fewer innings twice while his pitch count has averaged 17.5 per inning which is rather high. He is being asked to carry an Arizona team that has dropped eight straight games to the Mets at home by an average score of 9.5 to 2, quite the daunting task.

Age has not been a factor for Tom Glavine as he has been phenomenal at the age of 41. He has tossed four straight quality starts and five of six on the season while posting a 2.80 ERA in 35.1 innings of work. His only loss came on the road in Atlanta but that was a cold and windy day and his ERA sits at 1.93 in his four road starts. The Mets have outscored the competition 23-9 in those four outings. Glavine has pitched three times in Arizona since coming to New York and is 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA. Glavine continues to have success in the early part of the season as he is now 18-5 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.

Not only have the Mets dominated Arizona over the last two seasons but they have dominated the whole division, going 28-11 against the National League West. The travel aspect is always a concern but the east to west travel is the best way to go and New York will not be affected by it. The Mets continue their dominance over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Play New York for one unit.

Play: Mets -137

[The HG]

I think it's a decent pick, I might parlay it with the over. The Mets should probably push enough across the plate at some point to go comfortably ahead.

[bigboydan]

I too like the Mets in this game guys.

[RickySteve]

Hate it so much.

[awatkins011]

why?

[RickySteve]

why?

Mets lineup and pitching only slightly better than Arizona. Arizona at home. Arizona is a slight favorite here.

[RickySteve]

"New York is actually a better road team"

Hilarious stuff.

[awatkins011]

Gotta love 9th inning rallies. Congrats Mets backers!

[LT Profits]

"New York is actually a better road team"

Hilarious stuff.

RickySteve,

Why is that so amusing? The Mets are only 7-7 at home, and not only are they now 10-3 on the road, but they are averaging nearly 6.5 runs per game! They are nowhere close to that at home.

I also disagree with your statement that their hitting and pitching is only "slightly" better than Arizona. Their road offensive numbers speak for themselves, they had the far superior starting pitcher, and they have the best bullpen in baseball (2.16 ERA before tonight).

[RickySteve]

RickySteve,
Why is that so amusing? The Mets are only 7-7 at home, and not only are they now 10-3 on the road, but they are averaging nearly 6.5 runs per game! They are nowhere close to that at home.

OK, then I'll bet you for as high as you can count that the Mets win more games at home than on the road for the rest of the season. Easy money for you. PM me with contact information.

I also disagree with your statement that their hitting and pitching is only "slightly" better than Arizona. Their road offensive numbers speak for themselves, they had the far superior starting pitcher, and they have the best bullpen in baseball (2.16 ERA before tonight).

Awful analysis like this is why I return 10% betting baseball.

Nice suckout, though. Those vastly superior Mets needed an error by Tony Clark and ensuing mental breakdown from Jose Valverde to come back as 16-1 dogs. Way to get your money in good!

[LT Profits]

Ah, where to begin!

First of all, I did NOT bet the Mets because I never lay more than -125 on anything. I was responding to your comments regarding someone else's play (Fargo).

Secondly, of course the Mets will probaby win more games at home than on the road. But, I bet they will finish with more units won and a higher ROI on the road, which is all that matters from a betting perspective. In fact, I'd say I bet more road teams than home teams in general, because of the built-in line value.

Thirdly:

I also disagree with your statement that their hitting and pitching is only "slightly" better than Arizona. Their road offensive numbers speak for themselves, they had the far superior starting pitcher, and they have the best bullpen in baseball (2.16 ERA before tonight).

If you think that is awful, show me one word in that paragraph that is incorrect.

Lastly, about the Meta winning in the 9th inning, those things happen more often when you are betting on the superior bulllpen. Naturally I would not go so far to say that it is expected, but you are putting yourself in posiiton for a POSSIBLE late rally when you bet on a superior pen that shuts down the other team in the late innings.

I WOULD go so far to say that bullpens are more important than starting pitchers, since the line itself is based on the starting pitchers and the pen is undervalued for linemaking purposes.

Now Ricky, you are obviosuly a good capper based on all of your contest performances. But sometimes I get the impression that you bad-mouth posters for no other reason than to hear (or see) yourself talk.

[The HG]

Wow what a comeback! I've never seen anyone take on RickySteve like this! You'll never catch me doing that, no F'in way Jose. This is like Tyson vs Buster Douglas, it's like, wow, what's going on here?? After RS's last post I was sure that was it, another foe flattened. But out of nowhere, LT with a legitimate solid right, stunning RS! You gotta still like RS to pull it out, just because, I don't know, you just can't imagine him on the canvas. Guys take fights with him for the paycheck, not cause they think they're going to win. Amazing! Leading with "Now" in the final paragraph was a deft maneuver.

[RickySteve]

First of all, I did NOT bet the Mets because I never lay more than -125 on anything.

This idiotic statement alone makes me wonder why I'm wasting my time on you.

I was responding to your comments regarding someone else's play (Fargo).

Honor among thieves, right?

Secondly, of course the Mets will probaby win more games at home than on the road. But, I bet they will finish with more units won and a higher ROI on the road, which is all that matters from a betting perspective. In fact, I'd say I bet more road teams than home teams in general, because of the built-in line value.

So now the Mets aren't a better team on the road? I get confused when you argue against your own position.

Thirdly:

I also disagree with your statement that their hitting and pitching is only "slightly" better than Arizona. Their road offensive numbers speak for themselves, they had the far superior starting pitcher, and they have the best bullpen in baseball (2.16 ERA before tonight).

If you think that is awful, show me one word in that paragraph that is incorrect.

Your ignorance--or more accurately, the virus of your ignorance spread to anyone dumb enough to think you have a clue--pays my bills, so I'll leave that as is.

Lastly, about the Meta winning in the 9th inning, those things happen more often when you are betting on the superior bulllpen. Naturally I would not go so far to say that it is expected, but you are putting yourself in posiiton for a POSSIBLE late rally when you bet on a superior pen that shuts down the other team in the late innings.

I WOULD go so far to say that bullpens are more important than starting pitchers, since the line itself is based on the starting pitchers and the pen is undervalued for linemaking purposes.

I'm almost starting to feel embarrassed for you. Do you honestly think like this?

Mets were the WRONG SIDE IN THIS GAME. Period. End of discussion.

Now Ricky, you are obviosuly a good capper based on all of your contest performances. But sometimes I get the impression that you bad-mouth posters for no other reason than to hear (or see) yourself talk.

No, I hate myself. I post to enlighten the idiots and expose the phonies like you. Those who can, do. Those who can't, tout.

[The HG]

omg. wow.

[LT Profits]

JESUS Ricky!

This could go on for weeks, so hopefully this is the last time I will have to respond to this. There is a HUGE difference between healthy debate, which is a good thing and benefits everyone, and resorting to personal attacks and insults like you did in your last post.


First of all, I did NOT bet the Mets because I never lay more than -125 on anything.

This idiotic statement alone makes me wonder why I'm wasting my time on you.

You have to draw the line somewhere, and -125 works for me, although I could see some guys going as high as -149. Layng -150 or more on a regular basis is suicide, and although I am letting a few winners go by refusing to lay that much chalk, I know that I am saving money in the long run, so I could live with that.


I was responding to your comments regarding someone else's play (Fargo).

Honor among thieves, right?

THIS is where you really started pissing me off! Where do you get off calling me a thief, and what exactly have I done to incur your wrath? I am one of the hardest working handicappers in the business, and people that have seen my posts over the years in various forums know that I am a straight-shooter. In fact, I suspect that YOU have seen my stuff in the past, so what exactly have I done that equates to thievery?


Secondly, of course the Mets will probaby win more games at home than on the road. But, I bet they will finish with more units won and a higher ROI on the road, which is all that matters from a betting perspective. In fact, I'd say I bet more road teams than home teams in general, because of the built-in line value.

So now the Mets aren't a better team on the road? I get confused when you argue against your own position.

Depends how you want to define better team. Maybe I should rephrase to say that they are a better BET on the road, and will continue to be all year. Does that make you happier? Also my original point was that the Mets have been a better team on the road than at home TO DATE, and that is a cold fact supported by their numbers.


Thirdly:

I also disagree with your statement that their hitting and pitching is only "slightly" better than Arizona. Their road offensive numbers speak for themselves, they had the far superior starting pitcher, and they have the best bullpen in baseball (2.16 ERA before tonight).

If you think that is awful, show me one word in that paragraph that is incorrect.

Your ignorance--or more accurately, the virus of your ignorance spread to anyone dumb enough to think you have a clue--pays my bills, so I'll leave that as is.

You have yet to explain what is wrong with my statement. Where is the "ignorance" here?


Lastly, about the Meta winning in the 9th inning, those things happen more often when you are betting on the superior bulllpen. Naturally I would not go so far to say that it is expected, but you are putting yourself in posiiton for a POSSIBLE late rally when you bet on a superior pen that shuts down the other team in the late innings.

I WOULD go so far to say that bullpens are more important than starting pitchers, since the line itself is based on the starting pitchers and the pen is undervalued for linemaking purposes.

I'm almost starting to feel embarrassed for you. Do you honestly think like this?

What is there to be embarrassed about? A superior bullpen gives you a chance to come back late when you fall behind early. Is that even debatable? Thus, you will have your share of wins with the "wrong" side because you had the foresight to bet the better pen to begin with. Nothing wrong with that, so a win is a win is a win. And yes, the bullpen factor IS undervalued when setting a line, which is based AT LEAST 80% on the starting pitchers. I don't even see where that could be disputed.


Now Ricky, you are obviosuly a good capper based on all of your contest performances. But sometimes I get the impression that you bad-mouth posters for no other reason than to hear (or see) yourself talk.

No, I hate myself. I post to enlighten the idiots and expose the phonies like you. Those who can, do. Those who can't, tout.

PHONY? I do this for a living, as I have not worked in the 9 to 5 world in 30 years! I make more money from just BETTING my plays than from any other stream of income. In fact, I would go so far to say that I have been handicapping for more years than you have been on this earth.

As for the "touting" quip, yes there are many scumbags in this industry. In fact, I'm ashamed to say that the figure may be as high as 75% of cappers that are scammers. But please do not put ME in that category, as I have NEVER been even remotely involved in the scandals that the "real" touts get invloved with, such as giving out both sides of a game and mass phone calling. My record speaks for itself, as I have won UHC titles in both CFB and CBB and I've had many top 25 finishes in all sports, and my reputation remains intact.

Besides, just look at all the contributions I have made to THIS forum, and show me anything that indicates I am a phony.

Case Closed, End of Discussion!

Now take your self-hating, insecure self and go attack somebody that merits attacking. Better yet, go out and get laid once in a while - you'll be a happier person for it.