Colorado is home and their offense is clicking after a 20-hit attack in their last game. Ride the Rockies tonight against the Atlanta Braves.
The Rockies' offense got a jolt of confidence against the Mets in their last games as they pounded out 20 hits and scored 11 runs, the same amount of runs that they scored in their previous six games combined. Colorado is hitting .284 at home where the Rockies are playing .500 baseball so far on the season.
The Braves might still be stung from that 9th-inning meltdown against the Marlins where they blew a 3-0 lead by allowing all four runs in the final inning. Colorado has won seven on the last nine meetings in this series at Coors Field. This game has two pitchers coming off horrendous efforts their last time out and the key is finding the one that recovers.
Last season, Colorado's Jeff Francis never lost more than two consecutive games and he finds himself trying to keep that string going after getting pounded by the Padres and Giants in his last two starts. The good news is that there is nothing wrong with Francis, only his location of pitches. During the second of two regular bullpen sessions between starts, Francis paid particular attention to fastball command.
Atlanta's Chuck James had his worst effort of the season last time out as he allowed six runs on 10 hits, including three home runs, in 5.1 innings at New York. His location and control of his changeup let him down and that is what makes him tick. Heading to Colorado might not solve his problems, however as this will be his second start there. He posted a 3.61 ERA on the road last season but his worst start came here in Denver where he allowed six runs in just five innings. Take that start out and his road ERA dips to 2.93.
The Rockies fall into a very simple yet very effective situation: Play on any team that is coming off a game where it had 17 or more hits while starting a pitcher that has an ERA of 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 49-26 against the moneyline (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons with the average run differential being +1.2 rpg in those 75 games. Over the last two seasons, Francis is 8-0 against the moneyline in home games against National League teams averaging 4.8 or more rpg. Play Colorado for one unit.
I don't know if I could back Francis in this game. He's been getting shelled as of late, and the offense just isn't even showing up for him in those games he's pitching lately.
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Matt Fargo: Play Rocks at home vs Braves
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