Coming off a 2-0 sweep on Wednesday, SBR's Dustin Saracini is back with his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Thursday, July 10th (43-31, +5.57 YTD):
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees (-111 at FanDuel)
Bryan Woo (2.77 ERA) vs. Marcus Stroman (7.45 ERA)
NRFI record: Mariners (44-48) vs. Yankees (44-48)
"You know by now that whenever Woo is on the mound, we're tailing him as part of our best NRFI bets today. He's simply been a cash cow for us this year, and today against the Yankees is no different.
He's done a fairly good job against New York in his career, too, limiting the Yankees to a .170 average and a .286 xwOBA. Judge, if you're interested, is 3-for-8 against Woo in his career (and no, he hasn't hit a home run against him). We should be safe, and we might even catch him riding a high after becoming an All-Star for the first time. Who's cutting onions?
Stroman will bring us home. Cal Raleigh, who's making a charge on the AL MVP odds board, is hitless in seven at-bats against the right-hander, while Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford are a combined 3-for-11. I'm pricing this play closer to -130 than the -111 betting odds we're getting at FanDuel. Let's ride this value with confidence."
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (-105 at DraftKings)
Eduardo Rodriguez (5.78 ERA) vs. Randy Vazquez (3.79 ERA)
NRFI record: Diamondbacks (42-51) vs. Padres (52-40)
"This may seem like an outlandish play with two pitchers we haven't fully trusted as part of our best NRFI bets today this season. But looking at the matchup should help ease your mind a bit.
For one, we're getting a large sample size. The Padres have made 78 plate appearances against Rodriguez, who has limited them to a .204 xBA. That includes Manny Machado, who's hitting a pathetic .154 against him. That'll work for us.
On the other side, Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez are a combined 3-for-16 against Vasquez. If we can get past Corbin Carroll, who's hitting .500 (5-for-10) against the right-hander, we should be in the clear for six simple outs tonight.
I'd price this play closer to -115 than then -105 betting odds we're getting over at DraftKings. I really like the value we're snatching on both bets here. Let's sweep the slate one more time."
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees (-111 at FanDuel)
Bryan Woo (2.77 ERA) vs. Marcus Stroman (7.45 ERA)
NRFI record: Mariners (44-48) vs. Yankees (44-48)
"You know by now that whenever Woo is on the mound, we're tailing him as part of our best NRFI bets today. He's simply been a cash cow for us this year, and today against the Yankees is no different.
He's done a fairly good job against New York in his career, too, limiting the Yankees to a .170 average and a .286 xwOBA. Judge, if you're interested, is 3-for-8 against Woo in his career (and no, he hasn't hit a home run against him). We should be safe, and we might even catch him riding a high after becoming an All-Star for the first time. Who's cutting onions?
Stroman will bring us home. Cal Raleigh, who's making a charge on the AL MVP odds board, is hitless in seven at-bats against the right-hander, while Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford are a combined 3-for-11. I'm pricing this play closer to -130 than the -111 betting odds we're getting at FanDuel. Let's ride this value with confidence."
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres (-105 at DraftKings)
Eduardo Rodriguez (5.78 ERA) vs. Randy Vazquez (3.79 ERA)
NRFI record: Diamondbacks (42-51) vs. Padres (52-40)
"This may seem like an outlandish play with two pitchers we haven't fully trusted as part of our best NRFI bets today this season. But looking at the matchup should help ease your mind a bit.
For one, we're getting a large sample size. The Padres have made 78 plate appearances against Rodriguez, who has limited them to a .204 xBA. That includes Manny Machado, who's hitting a pathetic .154 against him. That'll work for us.
On the other side, Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez are a combined 3-for-16 against Vasquez. If we can get past Corbin Carroll, who's hitting .500 (5-for-10) against the right-hander, we should be in the clear for six simple outs tonight.
I'd price this play closer to -115 than then -105 betting odds we're getting over at DraftKings. I really like the value we're snatching on both bets here. Let's sweep the slate one more time."