The daily SBR home run predictions cashed Spencer Torkelson (+400) last night and Sean Tomlinson takes the reins for today's 4th of July best home run bets:
Fernando Tatis Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+525 via bet365)
Addison Barger player prop pick: To hit a home run (+370 via DraftKings)
Riley Greene player prop pick: To hit a home run (+350 via BetMGM)
Rafael Devers player prop pick: To hit a home run (+290 via bet365)
Parlay odds: +49259 via bet365 ($10 to win $4,935.93)
Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) to hit a home run (+525 bet365)
"Tatis has been in an uncharacteristic and prolonged slump after a sizzling start to the season.
But he's been clobbering the ball too often to stay down much longer. We see that in his underlying metrics that are shining as always, most notably an average exit velocity that sits in the top 9% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant. His expected slugging of .517 is also much higher than Tatis' actual slugging that rests at .441, which is another key indicator of a gift coming from the positive regression gods.
And Texas Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has been doling out plenty of gift-wrapped baseballs to smack this season. He's been better following a mid-June callup, though two of his four starts since then came against the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. His hard-hit rate allowed of 46.9 is in the bottom 10% of MLB, contributing to a putrid 6.13 ERA.
But the real generous gift here is coming from bet365, which is listing a colossal +525 outlier price for Tatis to go deep. The rest of our best MLB betting sites are far shorter for one of our best home run bets today, including the chasm between bet365 and the +390 at FanDuel, +340 through Caesars, and most of all, the +280 at DraftKings.
The odds at bet365 are implying a 16% chance, while DraftKings is at 26.32%."
Fernando Tatis Jr. player prop pick: To hit a home run (+525 via bet365)
Addison Barger player prop pick: To hit a home run (+370 via DraftKings)
Riley Greene player prop pick: To hit a home run (+350 via BetMGM)
Rafael Devers player prop pick: To hit a home run (+290 via bet365)
Parlay odds: +49259 via bet365 ($10 to win $4,935.93)
Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) to hit a home run (+525 bet365)
"Tatis has been in an uncharacteristic and prolonged slump after a sizzling start to the season.
But he's been clobbering the ball too often to stay down much longer. We see that in his underlying metrics that are shining as always, most notably an average exit velocity that sits in the top 9% leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant. His expected slugging of .517 is also much higher than Tatis' actual slugging that rests at .441, which is another key indicator of a gift coming from the positive regression gods.
And Texas Rangers starter Kumar Rocker has been doling out plenty of gift-wrapped baseballs to smack this season. He's been better following a mid-June callup, though two of his four starts since then came against the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates. His hard-hit rate allowed of 46.9 is in the bottom 10% of MLB, contributing to a putrid 6.13 ERA.
But the real generous gift here is coming from bet365, which is listing a colossal +525 outlier price for Tatis to go deep. The rest of our best MLB betting sites are far shorter for one of our best home run bets today, including the chasm between bet365 and the +390 at FanDuel, +340 through Caesars, and most of all, the +280 at DraftKings.
The odds at bet365 are implying a 16% chance, while DraftKings is at 26.32%."